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Old 12-29-2011, 11:44 AM
 
Location: Earth
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Orangeish View Post
Agree on needing a bigger sample size, but it seems rational to think his game is going to fall into sharp decline, right about...now, with his age and the team around him.
Perhaps, but consider the following:

1) The first game of the year, he put up 14 points and 12 assists in 30 minutes. The second game, he put up a stinker 4 points and 1 assist in 17 minutes( I didn't see the game, why the low minutes?). The question is, which game is more indicative of the current state of Nash's game, the first or the second? Which is the exception, and which is the rule? This is why a 2 game sample size, one good game followed by one crap game is hardly enough evidence to say one way or the other.

2) Nash, at 36/37 last season, averaged 14.7ppg and 11.4 apg, 49%, 40%, and 90% field goal, 3point, and free throw averages. I'm having a hard time believing that a guy whose entire game is based off skill and IQ, is going to suddenly drop dramatically from one year to the next. I mean... he was 'old' last year.

I maintain that we need a larger sample size than 2 games. I'm not disagreeing that he may finally be over the hill at 37, I'm just saying we've hardly given him enough time to offer a truly informed opinion on the state of his game right now. At least give it a month lol!!

 
Old 12-29-2011, 12:51 PM
 
Location: spring tx
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ok so i agree 2 games (4 if you count the "pre-season") but you guys are trying to ruin my hate of the suns and steve good-hair-lazy-eye!

on the other hand, those "good" numbers he put up where against the hornets who really have no PG to speak of for him to compete against, and his bad game was against the 76ers who dont have a real defensive PG to speak of.

he played 19+ and 26+ in the preseason and didnt have good numbers there either. and yes i realize its preseason but was it a true preseason? i dont think so.

he is normally a 50% fg shooter, he is shooting 33% so far. here is to hoping he keeps that up and retires.
 
Old 12-29-2011, 12:55 PM
 
Location: Earth
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Ok Rigas that sounds like a personal thing you got going on there lol..... Yes he's shooting 33%, the first game he shot 5/10, the second he shot 2/11. It would stand to reason that a 2 game average is going to be crappy. I mean, do you really expect him to shot that poorly over the season? Let's be objective here.

Frankly, seeing as there was only a few preseason games, and we're 2-3 games into the regular season, this for many players is still 'preseason', at least in terms of getting themselves into regular season shape. So, am I going to rush to conclusions after 2 games? Nope.....I mean really, the guy at 37 averages 14 and 11 on 50% shooting. I can accept a gradual decline this year( 12 and 10 on 48% shooting or something to that effect) ,but in a year are you expecting him to drop to 8 points, 5 assists, 33% shooting and the 3rd guy off the bench? Come on now, he's not going to fall off that sharply. If age was going to majorly affect Nash's game from one year to the next as far as a sharp, sudden decline, it would have already happened.
 
Old 12-29-2011, 12:59 PM
 
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1) I would wonder how much Nash's divorce after the old "oooops that baby doesn't look like me" moment....may have drained his energy.

2) Nash is a non-factor at this point unless he were to go to a contender where he would be great for use 20minutes a night and spreading the court etc.
 
Old 12-29-2011, 01:22 PM
 
Location: spring tx
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greg1977 View Post
Ok Rigas that sounds like a personal thing you got going on there lol..... Yes he's shooting 33%, the first game he shot 5/10, the second he shot 2/11. It would stand to reason that a 2 game average is going to be crappy. I mean, do you really expect him to shot that poorly over the season? Let's be objective here.

Frankly, seeing as there was only a few preseason games, and we're 2-3 games into the regular season, this for many players is still 'preseason', at least in terms of getting themselves into regular season shape. So, am I going to rush to conclusions after 2 games? Nope.....I mean really, the guy at 37 averages 14 and 11 on 50% shooting. I can accept a gradual decline this year( 12 and 10 on 48% shooting or something to that effect) ,but in a year are you expecting him to drop to 8 points, 5 assists, 33% shooting and the 3rd guy off the bench? Come on now, he's not going to fall off that sharply. If age was going to majorly affect Nash's game from one year to the next as far as a sharp, sudden decline, it would have already happened.
you know its kinda funny, this is exactly what everyone said would happen to tim duncan 2 years ago but its impossible to steve nash? steve nash also has garbage for a team around him and while a good point can turn garbage into assists, a 37-38 yr old pg isnt going to IMO i would expect his assists dont break 8 and will be more like 6 for the season and 10-12 ppg for the season on about 40-45% shooting.
 
Old 12-29-2011, 01:37 PM
 
Location: Earth
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rigas View Post
you know its kinda funny, this is exactly what everyone said would happen to tim duncan 2 years ago but its impossible to steve nash?
I've never made any commentary of that nature regarding Duncan, so perhaps you mean 'everyone else'.... For the record I still think Duncan is eminently capable of putting up 17 and 10, but his minutes the last several years have been held back, saving for playoffs. Incidentally, Duncan is only averaging 10 and 7 and .5 blocks in 23 minutes per game... are you expecting those numbers for the year from him as well? I suspect not.

As for your prediction on Nash's averages, I think you're a bit off the mark but I'm not going to run in circles debating it ad nausem. After two games I'm not going to stick my neck out and say he'll average even what he did last year( makeup of team plays alot into assists for one) but shooting 40-45% is a bit extreme. Frankly I think this particular debate is rather inconsequential in the grand picture, even if Nash maintains last year's pace its not like the Suns are going anywhere. So whether he averages 14 and 11 or 8 and 5 isn't terribly important or worthy of considerable debate. I just happen to think he's not ready for pasture yet... time will tell as always.
 
Old 12-29-2011, 01:54 PM
 
Location: spring tx
7,912 posts, read 8,210,783 times
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i expect duncan averages about 12-8 on the season unless the spurs actually sign another big (or trade for one) who can limit his minutes even more. and at 12-8 at 35 yrs old i say its a true testament to how good duncan really is. there are many more then serviceable and borderline very good bigs to have played this game that averaged those numbers over a career or even in their prime.

i agree the nash debate isnt worth debating much but i will say i think it is time for him to hang it up, just like kidd who happens to be one of my all time fav players even if he did "spurn my spurs" and stuck with the nets. i think the spurs win at least 2 more rings had kidd signed with them but thats a different topic for another time.
 
Old 12-29-2011, 02:14 PM
 
Location: Earth
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rigas View Post
i expect duncan averages about 12-8 on the season unless the spurs actually sign another big (or trade for one) who can limit his minutes even more. and at 12-8 at 35 yrs old i say its a true testament to how good duncan really is.
Don't you think Duncan is 'too good' to have those kinds of numbers, even at 35? I mean, Malone was averaging 24 and 9 at 35 years old and 20 and 8 at 39 years old, Barkley was putting up 15 and 11 at 35 years. Duncan's always kept himself in great shape, and his game was never built on devastating athleticism, so why are his numbers that low at this point? Why has Popovich limited him so much over the years to sub 30 minutes per game? I know he had some foot issues a few years back....
 
Old 12-29-2011, 02:47 PM
 
52,095 posts, read 41,903,893 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greg1977 View Post
Don't you think Duncan is 'too good' to have those kinds of numbers, even at 35? I mean, Malone was averaging 24 and 9 at 35 years old and 20 and 8 at 39 years old, Barkley was putting up 15 and 11 at 35 years. Duncan's always kept himself in great shape, and his game was never built on devastating athleticism, so why are his numbers that low at this point? Why has Popovich limited him so much over the years to sub 30 minutes per game? I know he had some foot issues a few years back....
Duncan was definitely not himself last year. He had a pretty notable drop in his production per 36minutes last year and otherwise has been very stable prior to that.

We will have to see how he recovers.

Comparing ANYBODY to Karl Malone in terms of longevity and health of a bigman is unfair.

Barkley missed A LOT of games after he turned 30. The year he played at 35 he only played in about 40 games.
Charles Barkley NBA & ABA Statistics | Basketball-Reference.com
 
Old 12-29-2011, 03:12 PM
 
Location: spring tx
7,912 posts, read 8,210,783 times
Reputation: 1982
part of malones numbers are a bit padded IMO because he had stockton spoon feeding him and he was the lone "star" so to speak. malone was not the type of guy to defer to other players, he didnt like it the one year he went to LA and his ppg dropped 7+ points from the year before. age or team?

as for barkley i would say he missed a lot of games after he turned 27. playing a shortened season like barkley did a lot of those years can sort of "pad" your numbers. look at robinson, the year he got injured and only played 6 games, and was only playing 24 minutes but on a per 36 robinsons had his best statistical season that year (only 6 games played). in other words barleys numbers where likely to go down had he actually played all season, law of averages i guess.

duncan has had some knee issues and he has a huge brace on now. this could be the reason for drop offs, or another reason pop is limiting his minutes. pop has other guys to rely on though, and barkleys teams really did, nor did malones. i would say give duncan a stockton type PG, and make TD the focal point with enough health to play 35-37 minutes a game like malone and he keeps his averages closer to his career numbers even at 35 yrs old. i am sure he could play those minutes but then he doesnt have to. he has shown he can when called upon, put up those numbers but i dont think his knees can handle the load for that long.
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