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View Poll Results: NBA draft - rigged?
Yes! 11 57.89%
No! 5 26.32%
This poll is also rigged 3 15.79%
Voters: 19. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 05-31-2012, 07:45 AM
 
51,928 posts, read 41,798,494 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Orangeish View Post
I'm not one for conspiracies, but yet again the ping pong balls went the leagues way this year. I know a lot of smart people who swear up and down that this thing is rigged. Maybe not every year, but do you think stern has ever rigged a draft lottery?
FYI - If they rig the results, with enough sample size a statistician can spot that the general results are "abnormal" to some % of confidence.

One example of this was the economics professor that spotted the unethical timing and back dating of stock options to execs 5 years or so ago which led to MANY resignations among CEO's in the US.

Another example would be the group that went through European and US casinos recording all the Roulette results. Using stat analysis they spotted a few wheels that had some sort of inherent bias due to a flaw in thier construction or installation. They made huge sums by betting into those wheels sweet spots before the casinos caught on.

You could load a set of dice and hand me them with 9 other sets and I guarantee you I can spot the loaded set just by mapping the outcomes. Same for the NBA draft....
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Old 05-31-2012, 09:08 AM
 
Location: Cook County
5,288 posts, read 6,363,957 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathguy View Post
Working with stuff like this for a living, I don't feel it's rigged.

For many that do, they tend to notice things that fit their viewpoint and mentally discard the points that don't.

For christsakes, NO had an almost 14% chance of getting the pick. Go to your local craps table and roll 2 dice, if you rolled a 10 or higher that's roughly the same odds.

In fact, there was a roughly 40% chance that it would go to NO or a team with worse chances.

Now let me put the final nail in the coffin....
NBA Draft Lottery - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Anybody see the Knicks name on that list from the 10-12 year stretch where they sucked on and off? Me neither. If the NBA was fixing crap like this then WHY has some of the biggest slam-dunk draft picks like Shaq, Duncan and Lebron all wound up in smaller markets?

Some of you remind me of a great comment I once heard a future HOF football player make. "When you see that red has come up 8 times in a row at roulette you know you should be betting black". Yeah sport, stick to football.
Yeah, I know 14% isnt that much of a long shot, and Charlottes 25% of winning was far from a lock.... However, the balls seem to have worked out perfectly some years. LBJ to cleveland, Rose to the Bulls, the recently sold hornets etc....

Its not like the NBA is a completely clean orgainzation - we have had refs proven to be point shaving and effecting outcomes.

Again, I dont think it is, but I think its a fun arguement...

Last time I was in vegas, I saw 00 hit on the roulette wheel three straight times. And a guy at the table bet it all three times. And I dont think that was rigged, so I know long shots are possible, and favorites don't always win.
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Old 05-31-2012, 09:36 AM
 
Location: TX
740 posts, read 1,842,091 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rigas View Post
could you imagine how many teams would have tanked for the worst record to get a tim duncan, a shaq, ledecision? half the league would lose every other game, and the good teams would sport 72 win seasons left and right.
Worst case would be 14 teams doing that, which is unlikely and would make for millions of bitter fans of those teams. Certainly not teams like Lakers, lest their entire roster would be getting death threats against family members.
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Old 05-31-2012, 10:30 AM
 
Location: The "Rock"
2,551 posts, read 2,413,834 times
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If tanking games is a concern... then it means they play too many games!

The draft lottery is a sham! The whole point is a sham! It's rigged! Why else would you even want it... Just do the draft order the way the teams finished and be done.

If any team ever deserved the #1 pick its a team that had the worst winning % EVER!!!

Last edited by Mr. GE; 05-31-2012 at 10:39 AM..
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Old 05-31-2012, 10:32 AM
 
Location: spring tx
7,912 posts, read 8,196,988 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by phoenix_talons View Post
Worst case would be 14 teams doing that, which is unlikely and would make for millions of bitter fans of those teams. Certainly not teams like Lakers, lest their entire roster would be getting death threats against family members.
14 teams On an average of 3 games per season that's 42 wins by itself. If the other teams go 500 that's multiple 62 win teams. Not one or 2 that's 5 or 6 teams winning 60+ games. A team playing like the spurs right now could realistically only lose 5 games if 14 teams tank considerably.
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Old 05-31-2012, 10:36 AM
 
Location: spring tx
7,912 posts, read 8,196,988 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. GE View Post
If tanking games is a concern... then it means they play too many games!
I don't agree, tanking games has nothing to do with total games played, it will not mater if it's 82, 66, 50 or 30. It just means the final tally at the end of the season will be less. If a team plays every other team 1 time the that's 29 games, you could have 5 teams go 1-28 or something silly. Tanking is tanking regardless of # of games played
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Old 05-31-2012, 10:42 AM
 
Location: The "Rock"
2,551 posts, read 2,413,834 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rigas View Post
I don't agree, tanking games has nothing to do with total games played, it will not mater if it's 82, 66, 50 or 30. It just means the final tally at the end of the season will be less. If a team plays every other team 1 time the that's 29 games, you could have 5 teams go 1-28 or something silly. Tanking is tanking regardless of # of games played
I dont' care if teams tank. The NBA says they do.

Tanking is just what the NBA uses as an excuse to have a MOB style lottery...

The NBA is a joke when it comes to their draft.
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Old 05-31-2012, 12:31 PM
 
51,928 posts, read 41,798,494 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. GE View Post
If tanking games is a concern... then it means they play too many games!

The draft lottery is a sham! The whole point is a sham! It's rigged! Why else would you even want it... Just do the draft order the way the teams finished and be done.

If any team ever deserved the #1 pick its a team that had the worst winning % EVER!!!
If it's rigged then why has the league forsaken the Knicks? The biggest freaking market had a horrible stretch and could have easily been reloaded in the post-ewing era with rigged results. It wasn't.

Heck, some of you were even claiming Lebron would leave Clevland for the Knicks due to Sterns interference...didn't happen either.

If people think a team winning a 14% is a conspiracy, but turn around and accept teams winning games with 2/3 court shots, hail marys and so forth then the problem lies with them.
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Old 05-31-2012, 12:49 PM
 
Location: Cook County
5,288 posts, read 6,363,957 times
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Tanking is more of a concern in the NBA due to the top heavy nature of the talent. Sure there have been top picks that have been flops, but the elite of the elite player do not come out of nowhere. Do it would be a total tank fest for the years with the Lebrons of the world.

In the NFL, you might find a MVP winner a couple hundred picks into the draft. In the NBA, I think almost every single MVP has come from the top ten. Nash was the lowest drafted MVP ever, and he was mid first round (and most say the worst MVP winner of all time).

The NBA product would suffer if you had 1/3 of the teams in the league tanking, tickets sales would hurt and they would lose fans left and right.

I don't love the lottery, but I think its a neccisary evil in this league.
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Old 05-31-2012, 02:24 PM
 
51,928 posts, read 41,798,494 times
Reputation: 32398
Quote:
Originally Posted by Orangeish View Post
Tanking is more of a concern in the NBA due to the top heavy nature of the talent. Sure there have been top picks that have been flops, but the elite of the elite player do not come out of nowhere. Do it would be a total tank fest for the years with the Lebrons of the world.

In the NFL, you might find a MVP winner a couple hundred picks into the draft. In the NBA, I think almost every single MVP has come from the top ten. Nash was the lowest drafted MVP ever, and he was mid first round (and most say the worst MVP winner of all time).

The NBA product would suffer if you had 1/3 of the teams in the league tanking, tickets sales would hurt and they would lose fans left and right.

I don't love the lottery, but I think its a neccisary evil in this league.
I agree. In the NBA a decent starter has as much impact on the game as an NFL quarterback since they play at both ends of the court. In years with a Lebron, Shaq, Duncan graduating the incentive to tank would be immense.

Also, the NFL is so much more susceptible to injury and draft picks bomb ALL the time there is just not nearly the pressure to tank.

I think the random element is excellent but they should do it just like the nightly powerball drawing. Dump all the balls in the hopper in front of god and everyone and pull them out in order.
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