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Old 02-21-2018, 01:48 PM
 
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Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
We never hear the same argument in reverse. What if Dwight Howard, Karl Anthony Towns, Boogie Cousins, Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, etc. were allowed to hone their craft by being fed in the post 25-30 times per game? We NEVER hear that argument in a discussion of the greatest post players of all time. And we shouldn't hear it because it ultimately doesn't matter. "Best of all time" doesn't mean "best who could have possibly ever done it if given the chance."
And that’s exactly the point. Terms like the “greatest of all time” are heavily dependent on the style of play for the era. That somewhat dilutes the term when “all time” actually refers to the last 5-10 years. So for example, can we still say MJ is unequivocally great - sure; he dominated the era he played in like few if any players ever have. Can we say Curry is unequivocally a great shooter - sure; he’s been the best shooter for ~5 years. Will we still say Curry is the “greatest” 20 years from now when we see more players in the same mold? Who knows.


Quote:
And we can clearly see that more attempts doesn't always translate into a higher percentage. If you're going to note the positive relationship between Harden's %/attempts from last year to this year, then you should also note the negative relationship between his %/attempts the previous six seasons.
His percentage actually hasn’t fluctuated that much regardless of attempts. However, you could say that maintaining a similar percentage (higher this year) on much higher volume means his shooting is probably better than it has ever been.
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Old 02-22-2018, 05:30 AM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
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Originally Posted by eddiehaskell View Post
And that’s exactly the point. Terms like the “greatest of all time” are heavily dependent on the style of play for the era. That somewhat dilutes the term when “all time” actually refers to the last 5-10 years. So for example, can we still say MJ is unequivocally great - sure; he dominated the era he played in like few if any players ever have. Can we say Curry is unequivocally a great shooter - sure; he’s been the best shooter for ~5 years. Will we still say Curry is the “greatest” 20 years from now when we see more players in the same mold? Who knows.
Only "all time" would encompass more than the last 5 to 10 years. Everyone seems to be focused on the volume of shots taken but not the percentage. Players 20 years ago attempted fewer 3 point shots, but they weren't much less accurate. There seems to be this assumption that certain players would shoot better if only they played in the 3 ball era, but as the data I posted earlier shows, the best shooters in the NBA posted similar percentages from behind the arc 20 years ago. It's not that the best shooters, who are almost always guards, are superior marksmen to shooters of the last few decades. The rise in 3P% is almost completely attributable to guys like Gasol, Towns and Porzingis who are all above 7' but can step back and knock down 3s at a decent clip.

What makes Curry so exceptional is that he is an all time leader in both volume and percentage. He's the greatest statistical outlier in his era and is a much greater outlier than, say, Bird was during his era where Hodges and Ainge often eclipsed him in shots made, percentage or both. You brought up Harden as an example of the 3 ball revolution and how players today are advantaged compared to previous generations, but you didn't note that Harden has never shot above 40% in a single season, which is considered one of the gold standards for an elite shooter (hence the "50/40/90 club"). Yeah, lots of guys can hoist up a bunch of 3 pointers, but that doesn't mean those shots go in at a higher rate.

The discussion, as I've mentioned before, should include all aspects of shooting, not just 3 point shooting. Curry ranks 3rd all time. So far, no one has given any explanation as to why Curry shoots free throws better than virtually all of the old timers too. Maybe basketball arenas are quieter today, which makes it easier for him to concentrate?

Lastly, I think it's commonly understood that "all time" can only include the time up to the present day since we may all be dead tomorrow. Kareem is the "all time" scoring leader until someone supplants him. That's how these things tend to work.

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Originally Posted by eddiehaskell View Post
His percentage actually hasn’t fluctuated that much regardless of attempts. However, you could say that maintaining a similar percentage (higher this year) on much higher volume means his shooting is probably better than it has ever been.
Look at his last six seasons going back to the 2012 season.

2012 - 39.0% (4.0)
2013 - 36.8% (6.2)
2014 - 36.6% (6.6)
2015 - 37.5% (6.9)
2016 - 35.9% (8.0)
2017 - 34.7% (9.3)

That's a downward sloping line. This doesn't lend much credence to the notion that % improves with attempts. I mean, I guess you could argue that 11.3 attempts per game is the magical number where % simply skyrockets for Harden and most players, but that's a pretty specious argument.
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Old 02-22-2018, 01:29 PM
 
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Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
Only "all time" would encompass more than the last 5 to 10 years. Everyone seems to be focused on the volume of shots taken but not the percentage. Players 20 years ago attempted fewer 3 point shots, but they weren't much less accurate. There seems to be this assumption that certain players would shoot better if only they played in the 3 ball era, but as the data I posted earlier shows, the best shooters in the NBA posted similar percentages from behind the arc 20 years ago. It's not that the best shooters, who are almost always guards, are superior marksmen to shooters of the last few decades. The rise in 3P% is almost completely attributable to guys like Gasol, Towns and Porzingis who are all above 7' but can step back and knock down 3s at a decent clip.

What makes Curry so exceptional is that he is an all time leader in both volume and percentage. He's the greatest statistical outlier in his era and is a much greater outlier than, say, Bird was during his era where Hodges and Ainge often eclipsed him in shots made, percentage or both. You brought up Harden as an example of the 3 ball revolution and how players today are advantaged compared to previous generations, but you didn't note that Harden has never shot above 40% in a single season, which is considered one of the gold standards for an elite shooter (hence the "50/40/90 club"). Yeah, lots of guys can hoist up a bunch of 3 pointers, but that doesn't mean those shots go in at a higher rate.

The discussion, as I've mentioned before, should include all aspects of shooting, not just 3 point shooting. Curry ranks 3rd all time. So far, no one has given any explanation as to why Curry shoots free throws better than virtually all of the old timers too. Maybe basketball arenas are quieter today, which makes it easier for him to concentrate?

Lastly, I think it's commonly understood that "all time" can only include the time up to the present day since we may all be dead tomorrow. Kareem is the "all time" scoring leader until someone supplants him. That's how these things tend to work.
There’s really no way of really knowing how or to what degree shooting more 3s would have changed the game of some players. There’s a totally different approach to the game nowadays. Prior to this era the game was mostly about looking for bigs inside as the preferable first option. Now you have high schoolers jacking up 30 foot 3 point attempts. For players in an era where attempting 2 3pt attempts per game is “high-volume” - to what degree does half court heaves and shot clock forced attempts impact their percentages? Are players really working on long range shooting from 6 years old when those shots aren’t taken in games and even looked down on? Doubtful.

Curry is a good shooter. That usually coincides with accurate free throw shooting. However, you can have some variance. For example, Klay Thompson shoots an incredible 46% from 3 on 7.1 attempts per game - that’s enough to qualify for GOAT shooter consideration compared to anyone prior to now...however, his FT% is 86%. He’s just not an incredibly elite free throw shooter. Free throw shooting is often a mental/thinking thing. Put Klay in a gym alone and I bet he’s shooting 97-98% from the line.

Regardless, the point isn’t to argue that Curry isn’t a great shooter...just that he’s not shooting 75% from 3 if he’s taking the same shots as Steve Kerr. Put Kerr or Price or Redick on a ball rack against Curry and the results are probably pretty close. Curry isn’t making 75% whereas the others make 40-50%.



Quote:
Look at his last six seasons going back to the 2012 season.

2012 - 39.0% (4.0)
2013 - 36.8% (6.2)
2014 - 36.6% (6.6)
2015 - 37.5% (6.9)
2016 - 35.9% (8.0)
2017 - 34.7% (9.3)

That's a downward sloping line. This doesn't lend much credence to the notion that % improves with attempts. I mean, I guess you could argue that 11.3 attempts per game is the magical number where % simply skyrockets for Harden and most players, but that's a pretty specious argument.
That’s a tiny sample size.

Basically Harden is shooting 37% while attempting 4-7 3s per game and he’s shooting 36% (the last 3 seasons) while attempting 8-11 3s. He has been able to maintain efficiency while greatly improving volume as the focus of opposing defenses (OKC had: Mr Durant and Mr. Westbrook drawing defenders). That’s a plus any way you slice it.

Last edited by eddiehaskell; 02-22-2018 at 01:37 PM..
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Old 02-22-2018, 02:13 PM
 
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Originally Posted by eddiehaskell View Post
There’s really no way of really knowing how or to what degree shooting more 3s would have changed the game of some players. There’s a totally different approach to the game nowadays. Prior to this era the game was mostly about looking for bigs inside as the preferable first option. Now you have high schoolers jacking up 30 foot 3 point attempts. For players in an era where attempting 2 3pt attempts per game is “high-volume” - to what degree does half court heaves and shot clock forced attempts impact their percentages? Are players really working on long range shooting from 6 years old when those shots aren’t taken in games and even looked down on? Doubtful.

Curry is a good shooter. That usually coincides with accurate free throw shooting. However, you can have some variance. For example, Klay Thompson shoots an incredible 46% from 3 on 7.1 attempts per game - that’s enough to qualify for GOAT shooter consideration compared to anyone prior to now...however, his FT% is 86%. He’s just not an incredibly elite free throw shooter. Free throw shooting is often a mental/thinking thing. Put Klay in a gym alone and I bet he’s shooting 97-98% from the line.

Regardless, the point isn’t to argue that Curry isn’t a great shooter...just that he’s not shooting 75% from 3 if he’s taking the same shots as Steve Kerr. Put Kerr or Price or Redick on a ball rack against Curry and the results are probably pretty close. Curry isn’t making 75% whereas the others make 40-50%.

That’s a tiny sample size.

Basically Harden is shooting 37% while attempting 4-7 3s per game and he’s shooting 36% (the last 3 seasons) while attempting 8-11 3s. He has been able to maintain efficiency while greatly improving volume as the focus of opposing defenses (OKC had: Mr Durant and Mr. Westbrook drawing defenders). That’s a plus any way you slice it.
Why would you think Curry needs to make 75% from 3 to be the GOAT shooter? He shoots ultra-elite percentage on high degree-of-difficulty shots at ultra-high volume. We don't ask in regards to GOAT player: who is the best on a pickup court or playing one-on-one? Likewise we don't ask in regards to GOAT shooter: who is the best at shooting from a ball rack or who could theoretically be the best shooter if rules and strategies were different? We ask: what are the on-the-court, in-game results--facing real defenders and trying to win games?

Steve Kerr is the only guy with any significant volume who shot a better career 3P% than Curry. Kerr did it playing a mix of full & shortened 3-point line, he did it shooting less than 2 3s per game, and he did it shooting approximately 90% of his 3s in spot up, assisted situations. Curry's career percentage is a little less than 2% shy of Kerr's. Curry shoots almost 8 per game on his career, does it with a full 3-point line (and often shoots well beyond it), and is only assisted on 61% of his 3s, meaning almost 40% of his 3s are the more difficult off-the-dribble shots.

It's just not close.

You mentioned the "heave" factor: we know Curry has taken 65 heave attempts in his career. We only have data for 3 of Kerr's seasons, but he only took 1 heave in those three seasons. Back in February 2016, Curry was 33/49 between 28 feet and the half court line. That's 67% on higher volume than Kerr even attempted from 3 point range in 4 of his 16 seasons.

It is possible that a better shooter comes along in the future. Just like it's possible that a better player comes along than Jordan (maybe already has).

Klay belongs in the discussion of top shooters. His shooting results are ultra-elite in-game and he maintains incredibly consistent form & release in-game in a wide variety of shooting circumstances. Ray Allen is there, too.
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Old 02-22-2018, 02:26 PM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
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Originally Posted by eddiehaskell View Post
There’s really no way of really knowing how or to what degree shooting more 3s would have changed the game of some players. There’s a totally different approach to the game nowadays. Prior to this era the game was mostly about looking for bigs inside as the preferable first option. Now you have high schoolers jacking up 30 foot 3 point attempts. For players in an era where attempting 2 3pt attempts per game is “high-volume” - to what degree does half court heaves and shot clock forced attempts impact their percentages? Are players really working on long range shooting from 6 years old when those shots aren’t taken in games and even looked down on? Doubtful.
This really doesn't address my point. Today's best shooters do not shoot better in any statistically significant sense. They just take more 3s. Your whole argument seems to be premised on this idea that today's shooters are better than yesterday's shooters, at least in a statistical sense, but I've already provided evidence that this is NOT true. The improvement in 3 point % among guards has been marginal at best. If there is any evidence that doubling your number of 3 point attempts leads to a statistically significant increase in 3P%, I have yet to see it. There is hard evidence, on the other hand, that jacking more 3s drags down FG%.

And let's not act like Reggie Miller and Glen Rice played in 1980. It is true that players did not attempt many 3s in the early to mid 80s. But Reggie Miller put up 511 attempts in the 89-90 season. That's not remotely in the same universe as Magic Johnson's 21 attempts in 82-83. The "they didn't shoot enough 3s" excuse can't be applied to the guys of the Miller/Jordan era. There were a lot of superb long range shooters during that time.

At the end of the day, though, it doesn't matter that Magic took only 21 threes in a season or that the 3 point line didn't exist in Bob Cousy's day. The question isn't "Who could have been the best shooter of all time?" That's like asking if Tiger Woods would still be the best golfer ever if the sport of golf were as popular as soccer. All that matters are hard, cold statistics, and as of now, Wardell Stephen Curry II is the best we've seen at putting the ball through the hoop from various distances.

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Originally Posted by eddiehaskell View Post
Regardless, the point isn’t to argue that Curry isn’t a great shooter...just that he’s not shooting 75% from 3 if he’s taking the same shots as Steve Kerr. Put Kerr or Price or Redick on a ball rack against Curry and the results are probably pretty close. Curry isn’t making 75% whereas the others make 40-50%.
"75%" was an off the cuff remark. The idea is not that Curry would shoot 75-100%, but that his % would in all likelihood be much higher than it is with more open set shots and fewer shots overall. Conversely, Kerr would have a significantly lower % if teams devoted the same defensive attention to him that they all devote to Curry.

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Originally Posted by eddiehaskell View Post
That’s a tiny sample size.
LOL. 6 seasons is literally 67% of his career. Now one season, which is what you chose, is indeed a small sample size.

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Originally Posted by eddiehaskell View Post
Basically Harden is shooting 37% while attempting 4-7 3s per game and he’s shooting 36% (the last 3 seasons) while attempting 8-11 3s. He has been able to maintain efficiency while greatly improving volume as the focus of opposing defenses (OKC had: Mr Durant and Mr. Westbrook drawing defenders). That’s a plus any way you slice it.
But the trajectory of Harden's career doesn't fit the narrative you were implying--namely that players shoot a higher % by jacking more and more 3s each season. In the past, we've seen Harden's shooting % drop substantially after increasing his number of attempts per game, and in most cases his % drops along with an increase in attempts.
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Old 02-22-2018, 02:49 PM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
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Originally Posted by TheCityTheBridge View Post
It's just not close.
As a shooting talent alone (not as a player), Curry is in a rarefied air with guys like Woods, Federer and Gretzky. We're talking about major statistical outliers in their respective sports. 30.1 ppg on 50.1% shooting and 45.4% from deep on 886 attempts ranks right up there with Tiger's 141 consecutive cuts and Federer's 36 straight set war path in 2005-06. Or DiMaggio's 56 consecutive hits. These are feats we will probably never see again in our lifetimes.

Any time we're left with little statistical basis for challenging a given athlete's supremacy, we're usually left raising questions about the era they played in. In the modern era, we probably see this most with Gretzky since people argue that he'd be too small and get plastered in today's game. But Gretzky is so ridiculously far ahead of everyone else in nearly all meaningful categories that it's almost impossible to say someone else could have achieved the same thing in the same era. To this day, I think the difference between Gretzky and the 2nd ranked player in points is greater than the difference between the 2nd player and the 50th ranked player. Just mind boggling stuff.

To me, this is a pretty clear cut argument since Curry's 3P% is higher than some players' overall FG%. We need to think about that for a second.
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Old 02-22-2018, 03:12 PM
 
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Originally Posted by TheCityTheBridge View Post
Why would you think Curry needs to make 75% from 3 to be the GOAT shooter? He shoots ultra-elite percentage on high degree-of-difficulty shots at ultra-high volume. We don't ask in regards to GOAT player: who is the best on a pickup court or playing one-on-one? Likewise we don't ask in regards to GOAT shooter: who is the best at shooting from a ball rack or who could theoretically be the best shooter if rules and strategies were different? We ask: what are the on-the-court, in-game results--facing real defenders and trying to win games?

Steve Kerr is the only guy with any significant volume who shot a better career 3P% than Curry. Kerr did it playing a mix of full & shortened 3-point line, he did it shooting less than 2 3s per game, and he did it shooting approximately 90% of his 3s in spot up, assisted situations. Curry's career percentage is a little less than 2% shy of Kerr's. Curry shoots almost 8 per game on his career, does it with a full 3-point line (and often shoots well beyond it), and is only assisted on 61% of his 3s, meaning almost 40% of his 3s are the more difficult off-the-dribble shots.

It's just not close.

You mentioned the "heave" factor: we know Curry has taken 65 heave attempts in his career. We only have data for 3 of Kerr's seasons, but he only took 1 heave in those three seasons. Back in February 2016, Curry was 33/49 between 28 feet and the half court line. That's 67% on higher volume than Kerr even attempted from 3 point range in 4 of his 16 seasons.

It is possible that a better shooter comes along in the future. Just like it's possible that a better player comes along than Jordan (maybe already has).

Klay belongs in the discussion of top shooters. His shooting results are ultra-elite in-game and he maintains incredibly consistent form & release in-game in a wide variety of shooting circumstances. Ray Allen is there, too.
You’re arguing points that were never raised. No one argued that Curry DOESN’T make more difficult shots. Within this 3 ball centered era, he is essentially the first of his kind when it comes to shooting difficult shots in volume. However, that doesn’t mean that he’s twice the shooter when it comes to set shots.

Just like we saw with players idolizing Jordan, there’s many kids out there now trying to pattern their game after Curry. Is he something that will never be seen again or is he just the beginning of guards in a similar mold? We will find out. If you’re a kid built similar to Curry and don’t have lightning speed...develop unlimited range and be creative with getting your shot off (ala Trae Young).
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Old 02-22-2018, 03:13 PM
 
Location: Crooklyn, New York
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Originally Posted by TheCityTheBridge View Post
It is possible that a better shooter comes along in the future. Just like it's possible that a better player comes along than Jordan (maybe already has).
It's certainly possible that someone comes along who is a better shooter than Curry. Where I disagree is that Curry will lead to a wave of players who are capable of hitting circus shots from 29 feet away from the basket.

Curry hits a lot of shots that would be considered lucky for any other player who has ever lived. That's why seeing the Warriors has been akin to going to see Ringling Bros. the past few years. Michael Jordan made difficult shots, but it was sort of easy to look at Mike and say "Yeah, I can see how an explosive, 6'6 guard could do that." I never felt Jordan was lucky. With Curry, you feel often feel like he's lucky and that his luck is bound to run out at some point. He is the only player in history for whom an isolation step back from 31 feet is a high percentage shot.

Last edited by BajanYankee; 02-22-2018 at 03:27 PM..
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Old 02-22-2018, 04:01 PM
 
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Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
This really doesn't address my point. Today's best shooters do not shoot better in any statistically significant sense. They just take more 3s. Your whole argument seems to be premised on this idea that today's shooters are better than yesterday's shooters, at least in a statistical sense, but I've already provided evidence that this is NOT true. The improvement in 3 point % among guards has been marginal at best. If there is any evidence that doubling your number of 3 point attempts leads to a statistically significant increase in 3P%, I have yet to see it. There is hard evidence, on the other hand, that jacking more 3s drags down FG%.
So an increase in volume while improving accuracy (even marginally) isn’t anything noteworthy? Isn’t that like assuming a guard who averages 10 ppg on 50% shooting could just take as many shots as James Harden and average 35 ppg? Common sense would dictate that the importance of the 3 point shot in today’s game would lead to players placing more emphasis on improving their range, accuracy and ability to get off 3 pt attempts. If shooting from distance isn’t part of strategy (I.e. teams attempting 5 per game), do you really think players put in the same time in the gym practicing 3s? Players are attempting 3s in today’s game that difficulty wise would’ve been unthinkable 25 years ago...yet they’re making them with higher accuracy. Why? Perhaps they’ve focused more on that aspect of their game?

Quote:
And let's not act like Reggie Miller and Glen Rice played in 1980. It is true that players did not attempt many 3s in the early to mid 80s. But Reggie Miller put up 511 attempts in the 89-90 season. That's not remotely in the same universe as Magic Johnson's 21 attempts in 82-83. The "they didn't shoot enough 3s" excuse can't be applied to the guys of the Miller/Jordan era. There were a lot of superb long range shooters during that time.
According to what I see, Miller attempted 362 3s in 89-90. So arguably the best shooter of his time took about 1/3 the attempts as James Harden.





Quote:
75%" was an off the cuff remark. The idea is not that Curry would shoot 75-100%, but that his % would in all likelihood be much higher than it is with more open set shots and fewer shots overall. Conversely, Kerr would have a significantly lower % if teams devoted the same defensive attention
No one disputes that...simply that when it comes to set shots or just shooting in the gym, there’s probably not that much of a difference between Curry, Redick, Kerr, Korver, etc. I doubt Curry is going to embarrass those guys shooting stand still shots.


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But the trajectory of Harden's career doesn't fit the narrative you were implying--namely that players shoot a higher % by jacking more and more 3s each season. In the past, we've seen Harden's shooting % drop substantially after increasing his number of attempts per game, and in most cases his % drops along with an increase in attempts.
Once again, his accuracy has stayed about the same despite taking more attempts and being the sole focus of opposing defenses. In most of the basketball world, that’s an improvement. You are getting lost is the statistical noise of 1% fluctuations year-to-year. You also don’t take into consideration that playing in OKC with Durant and Westbrook likely led to better looks.
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Old 02-22-2018, 04:08 PM
 
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Originally Posted by BajanYankee View Post
It's certainly possible that someone comes along who is a better shooter than Curry. Where I disagree is that Curry will lead to a wave of players who are capable of hitting circus shots from 29 feet away from the basket.

Curry hits a lot of shots that would be considered lucky for any other player who has ever lived. That's why seeing the Warriors has been akin to going to see Ringling Bros. the past few years. Michael Jordan made difficult shots, but it was sort of easy to look at Mike and say "Yeah, I can see how an explosive, 6'6 guard could do that." I never felt Jordan was lucky. With Curry, you feel often feel like he's lucky and that his luck is bound to run out at some point. He is the only player in history for whom an isolation step back from 31 feet is a high percentage shot.
Don’t know. Show a high school highlight video of the Ball brothers to NBA players in the 80s and I bet they’d crap themselves. Curry spent endless amounts of time practicing all the shots he takes...others will be doing the same. Not saying there will be a wave of Curry’s, but probably more gunslingers that can hit difficult long range shots with accuracy.
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