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Old 03-14-2018, 07:55 AM
 
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Virginia bracket is now one of the hardest brackets to forecast.


The injury creates a lot of last minute role changes with the Cavs. I don't see that as a positive.


Kentucky is coming in playing really well but has Tough 1st round game against an opponent that matches up well with them.


Arizona may have the best player in tournament- if you made me decide now I'd probably pick them.


The bottom has Tennesee and Cincinnati both are similar to one another but both can be beaten by a team that gets hot from the floor. I wouldn't take either of these two in a shootout.


The bottom of the West: Houston, North Carolina, Michigan. Houston has been rock solid all year, Michigan and North Carolina have all had their awful moments. Do you take steady or a team that IF it brings their A game could win it?
I don't know what everyone is watching with SDSU- this is not the same SDSU team of the past and the MWC is garbage.
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Old 03-14-2018, 08:22 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SonnyCrockett View Post
I have my doubts about Virginia, but I really do want to see them get that monkey of their back.
With Virginia, as long as they are ahead or keep in close, they should be in the game. It's when they start playing from behind, down double digits or more, that's when it's hard for them to come back, because their offense just doesn't score a lot.

They average 68 points a game, and I guess when you have a top-rated defense, scoring in the 60's every game will more likely than not get you a win. Kentucky averages 77 points a game, Arizona 81 points a game, it's those teams that like to "run and gun", where Virginia might have a hard time keeping up.

I know Bennett has coached like this since he started, but when I see final scores of 59-55 or 62-57 or 65-54, I'm still amazed at how low the final score can be.
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Old 03-14-2018, 08:27 AM
 
929 posts, read 297,063 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eastcoastbias View Post
Virginia bracket is now one of the hardest brackets to forecast.


The injury creates a lot of last minute role changes with the Cavs. I don't see that as a positive.

Kentucky is coming in playing really well but has Tough 1st round game against an opponent that matches up well with them.

Arizona may have the best player in tournament- if you made me decide now I'd probably pick them.

The bottom has Tennesee and Cincinnati both are similar to one another but both can be beaten by a team that gets hot from the floor. I wouldn't take either of these two in a shootout.

The bottom of the West: Houston, North Carolina, Michigan. Houston has been rock solid all year, Michigan and North Carolina have all had their awful moments. Do you take steady or a team that IF it brings their A game could win it?
I don't know what everyone is watching with SDSU- this is not the same SDSU team of the past and the MWC is garbage.

#1 This isn't the Kenyon Martin injury to Cinci just before the tournament, but yes, I have a hard time forecasting the south region now with Virginia's new reality. Davidson- Kentucky is another first rounder, where maybe Kentucky barely survives, but ultimately goes all the way to the championship game. We've see such notorious examples such as Arizona in 97, who should have lost off the bat to S. Alabama, UConn in 2014, who was about to lose to St Joe's, Florida in 2000 (who didn't win it, but got to the final) who was very lucky to beat Butler on the Mike Miller buzzer beater. I'm also more and more inclined to believe Buffalo may have what it takes to upset Arizona and ruin many brackets right off the bat! This is a classic example of whether Buffalo's long range shooting is on or off that day. You just can't predict such things.

#2 If there are three sure things in life, it is death, taxes, and Tennessee and Cinci are going to play great defense, and some painful offense to have to witness- been that way for what? 20-25 years even with several different head coaches each. And their scrappy type of style- a little different from those classic Wisconsin teams when we think of defense- has not served either well in the tournament thru the years. Wright State is another possible sleeper, and can offset Tennessee's advantages in length. Texas with Mamba I think may well beat Cinci in round two, but again another big unknown in this tournament, is this Texas team going to play with a purpose, or sleepwalk like it has so often during the season? Either way, no Cinci and Tennessee are not capable of playing a tempo which wold suggest scores in the 70s or up. And I don't get Cinci being a 2 seed- out-of-conference play suggests to me they are overseeded.

#3 I'm not a big believer in conference affiliation. I mean, I do scrutinize the wins more closely yes, but even if a conference is good or isn't good, I don't associate a member as being to assert or not assert itself well in the NCAA Tournament. Like I've stated, Nevada (from the MWC), I feel too is very overseeded- probably the most of any team in the field. But San Diego State- let's acknowledge just how good Trey Kell is and what he brings to that team- and how different SDSU has played since his return to the lineup a month ago. And there is other legit talent. This is a totally different team the last three weeks or so.
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Old 03-14-2018, 08:45 AM
 
2,838 posts, read 1,778,457 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SonnyCrockett View Post
#1 This isn't the Kenyon Martin injury to Cinci just before the tournament, but yes, I have a hard time forecasting the south region now with Virginia's new reality. Davidson- Kentucky is another first rounder, where maybe Kentucky barely survives, but ultimately goes all the way to the championship game. We've see such notorious examples such as Arizona in 97, who should have lost off the bat to S. Alabama, UConn in 2014, who was about to lose to St Joe's, Florida in 2000 (who didn't win it, but got to the final) who was very lucky to beat Butler on the Mike Miller buzzer beater. I'm also more and more inclined to believe Buffalo may have what it takes to upset Arizona and ruin many brackets right off the bat! This is a classic example of whether Buffalo's long range shooting is on or off that day. You just can't predict such things.

#2 If there are three sure things in life, it is death, taxes, and Tennessee and Cinci are going to play great defense, and some painful offense to have to witness- been that way for what? 20-25 years even with several different head coaches each. And their scrappy type of style- a little different from those classic Wisconsin teams when we think of defense- has not served either well in the tournament thru the years. Wright State is another possible sleeper, and can offset Tennessee's advantages in length. Texas with Mamba I think may well beat Cinci in round two, but again another big unknown in this tournament, is this Texas team going to play with a purpose, or sleepwalk like it has so often during the season? Either way, no Cinci and Tennessee are not capable of playing a tempo which wold suggest scores in the 70s or up. And I don't get Cinci being a 2 seed- out-of-conference play suggests to me they are overseeded.

#3 I'm not a big believer in conference affiliation. I mean, I do scrutinize the wins more closely yes, but even if a conference is good or isn't good, I don't associate a member as being to assert or not assert itself well in the NCAA Tournament. Like I've stated, Nevada (from the MWC), I feel too is very overseeded- probably the most of any team in the field. But San Diego State- let's acknowledge just how good Trey Kell is and what he brings to that team- and how different SDSU has played since his return to the lineup a month ago. And there is other legit talent. This is a totally different team the last three weeks or so.
Good points.


If you aren't clearly the best team in a weak conference that says something to me.


Nevada won the MWC Regular season by two games. They won 27 games including non-conference games like Rhode Island and Davidson both wins, and barely lost to Texas Tech and a competitive game against TCU.
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Old 03-14-2018, 08:50 AM
 
2,838 posts, read 1,778,457 times
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Originally Posted by cjseliga View Post
With Virginia, as long as they are ahead or keep in close, they should be in the game. It's when they start playing from behind, down double digits or more, that's when it's hard for them to come back, because their offense just doesn't score a lot.

They average 68 points a game, and I guess when you have a top-rated defense, scoring in the 60's every game will more likely than not get you a win. Kentucky averages 77 points a game, Arizona 81 points a game, it's those teams that like to "run and gun", where Virginia might have a hard time keeping up.

I know Bennett has coached like this since he started, but when I see final scores of 59-55 or 62-57 or 65-54, I'm still amazed at how low the final score can be.
I look at a guy like Ayton (skilled and athletic) testing Virginia on both ends.
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Old 03-14-2018, 09:11 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eastcoastbias View Post
Good points.


If you aren't clearly the best team in a weak conference that says something to me.


Nevada won the MWC Regular season by two games. They won 27 games including non-conference games like Rhode Island and Davidson both wins, and barely lost to Texas Tech and a competitive game against TCU.
My problem with Nevada is they several bad losses and and several blowout losses. I dig their resume being in as an at-large, no question. Nobody should suggest otherwise. I think a 7 is excessive.

The Kenpom ratings, which seem to be the most telling and useful metric we all go by, is far from perfect. Best would be to use the very insightful Roll your own T-Ranketology - T-Rank - College Basketball Ratings and Rankings


I bring it up because of San Diego State. This is an interesting metric that can incorporate what has happened more recently, which for example, would have told a different story for 2011 UConn (middle of the pack Big East team that was struggling, then won 11 in a row, including 5 in 5 days a the BE tourney)- and they wouldn't necessarily be the outlier they appeared to be taking the season as a sum. You can filter the ratings by dates, quality of wins, etc.., and go back to other years, including 2011. Kinda neat- and at the end of the day, I know, you got to play the games and not get overly-caught up in stats. But interestingly, it does showcase consistently, even adjusting for strength of opponent, San Diego State being one of the best teams since Trey Kell returned and better most of the time than Xavier or Arizona.

So really finishing a few games out from winning a regular season title in the MWC doesn't concern me, especially after witnessing the conference tournament. Remember too, VCU in 2011 finished 4 games out of 1st in the Colonial, finished I believe, fourth, didn't even win the conference tourney and had to rely on a controversial at-large selection- and I think we all know how that panned out.
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Old 03-14-2018, 02:14 PM
 
Location: The "Rock"
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I got Kentucky, UNC, Villanova, and Duke in the Final Four... UNC winning it all over Villanova
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Old 03-14-2018, 08:50 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Mr. GE View Post
I got Kentucky, UNC, Villanova, and Duke in the Final Four... UNC winning it all over Villanova
I'd be more shocked at North Carolina repeating than some teams seeded lower than them winning it all, including Kentucky. I'm digging Kentucky- a repeat performance of 2014: a run to the championship after an up and down regular season. Risky- I don't know what to expect- but that's like most teams. Not a UNC believer at all, would be pretty surprised to see them make the Final 4.
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Old 03-14-2018, 09:23 PM
 
929 posts, read 297,063 times
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Syracuse will not go on a crazy run after an undeserving bid, like they did two years ago. I expect TCU to be match up well and they'll handle that Syracuse zone just fine- Dixon is a good coach and he acclimated to it well back during his days at Pitt.

I'll take Purdue to cut down the nets, beating Duke in one semi. Kentucky over SDSU (1st choice)/Houston (back-up choice) winner in the other.

Let the (real) games begin!
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Old 03-15-2018, 05:30 AM
 
Location: The City
22,331 posts, read 32,171,331 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SonnyCrockett View Post
Syracuse will not go on a crazy run after an undeserving bid, like they did two years ago. I expect TCU to be match up well and they'll handle that Syracuse zone just fine- Dixon is a good coach and he acclimated to it well back during his days at Pitt.

I'll take Purdue to cut down the nets, beating Duke in one semi. Kentucky over SDSU (1st choice)/Houston (back-up choice) winner in the other.

Let the (real) games begin!


I think Purdue is an interesting pick (while am a Nova fan) I can a path there for them and out of anyone in the East bracket they scare me in the Nova match up


I think they are very plausible, a team that started slow and could come together for a run in the tourney


I hope they lose before facing Nova


I don't love KY but do AZ, just a feel


the Zags also have a legit path




Oddly (or maybe not so) I see two potential Big Ten (MS other obviously) paths very legit, as with many other years wouldn't it be ironic for a Big Ten champ after such a crappy conference year


I don't see Xavier (On the BE front) making it (tough road) so if Nova can get past and through the bracket they have a shot (a strong one)




I cant get a feel for KS, but have trouble counting them out




Some others I like but cant vision to champ are WVU and Cinci
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