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Old 03-05-2018, 07:28 PM
 
Location: Mooresville, NC
2,149 posts, read 2,630,089 times
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I'm excited to see which day of the first weekend Kansas is eliminated. lol How they continue to be ranked so high is amazing to me.
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Old 03-06-2018, 12:08 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eastcoastbias View Post
Very Tough year...


On one hand you have really good defensive teams that when we get down to the Sweet Sixteen/Elite Games do they have enough offense?


Virginia, Cincy, Michigan and WVU (pressure game).


Then you have Great Offensive teams that if they could only tighten it up.


Duke, X.


I think Nova, Purdue and NC, Mich. St, Kansas will stumble. They are all flawed in some ways. Purdue you can game plan. Nova doesn't have the go to guy this year.


I think Zona, Ohio State, Texas Tech should be seeded to do well but will likely win maybe one game.


Florida and Houston are my sleepers this year.


Murray State, Loyola Chicago, Saint Bonn, Middle Tenn can all win a game.
I concur with a lot of this. Houston is interesting. Haven't seen them play; I am not sure they have even been back to the tourney since the Phi Slama Jama days!? I think the biggest topic heading into the start of the Tournament, will be if Virginia can get that monkey off its back finally. I'm also wondering about URI, who I had going very far last year and in fact should have beaten Oregon in the second round. They have the potential for a deep run, but I don't know what to make of that bizarre 30 point home loss on Senior night last week against St Joes.
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Old 03-06-2018, 01:58 PM
 
2,841 posts, read 1,785,417 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SonnyCrockett View Post
I concur with a lot of this. Houston is interesting. Haven't seen them play; I am not sure they have even been back to the tourney since the Phi Slama Jama days!? I think the biggest topic heading into the start of the Tournament, will be if Virginia can get that monkey off its back finally. I'm also wondering about URI, who I had going very far last year and in fact should have beaten Oregon in the second round. They have the potential for a deep run, but I don't know what to make of that bizarre 30 point home loss on Senior night last week against St Joes.
The A10 is crazy...I've watched the RI, Davidson, Saint Bonn Series. RI has matched up well with Davidson. So maybe they D up a perimeter oriented team in the Tournament. Davidson Saint Bonn had the best college basketball game I've been all year- Saint Bonn won but I bet Davidson wins the rematch. Saint Bonn has an experienced group that can score with anyone. They have had 3-4 go to guys in any given night. I've actually picked Davidson to win the A10 and if these three all get in- they can all win the first round.


I've watched Houston 3 times and they lock down and hit shots. I think they are the most complete team in a good conference. I'm picking them into the Sweet Sixteen and depending on the draw elite 8 and they are absolutely hungry. I don't think Tourney experience matters as much I'd rather have a hot and hungry team.


I don't think ANY team wants to play UVA or WVU in the first couple rounds. They make you play differently - so unless you have an uber talented lottery pick team (Duke) you need to adjust quickly and go against what got you there.


The 3-6 seeds better watch out- there are some really good potential 11-14 seeds (Murray St. UNC Greensboro, Bucknell, Loyola Chi, Montana, Middle Tenn)
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Old 03-07-2018, 12:12 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eastcoastbias View Post
The A10 is crazy...I've watched the RI, Davidson, Saint Bonn Series. RI has matched up well with Davidson. So maybe they D up a perimeter oriented team in the Tournament. Davidson Saint Bonn had the best college basketball game I've been all year- Saint Bonn won but I bet Davidson wins the rematch. Saint Bonn has an experienced group that can score with anyone. They have had 3-4 go to guys in any given night. I've actually picked Davidson to win the A10 and if these three all get in- they can all win the first round.


I've watched Houston 3 times and they lock down and hit shots. I think they are the most complete team in a good conference. I'm picking them into the Sweet Sixteen and depending on the draw elite 8 and they are absolutely hungry. I don't think Tourney experience matters as much I'd rather have a hot and hungry team.


I don't think ANY team wants to play UVA or WVU in the first couple rounds. They make you play differently - so unless you have an uber talented lottery pick team (Duke) you need to adjust quickly and go against what got you there.


The 3-6 seeds better watch out- there are some really good potential 11-14 seeds (Murray St. UNC Greensboro, Bucknell, Loyola Chi, Montana, Middle Tenn)
I agree the experience factor is hogwash. I love all these cliches spouted by these experts. Another one is "depth". Depth can matter, but it's contingent on how the officials are calling the game, and other variables. Depth isn't any more reliant of a determinant than when teams are going to go hot or cold from the perimeter. Give me a hot team with 5 very good players, even if they are all underclassmen, along with the ability to manufacture points when shooting goes cold.
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Old 03-07-2018, 01:23 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SonnyCrockett View Post
I agree the experience factor is hogwash. I love all these cliches spouted by these experts. Another one is "depth". Depth can matter, but it's contingent on how the officials are calling the game, and other variables. Depth isn't any more reliant of a determinant than when teams are going to go hot or cold from the perimeter. Give me a hot team with 5 very good players, even if they are all underclassmen, along with the ability to manufacture points when shooting goes cold.
With the NCAA tourny it's all about match-ups, having good players helps, but in the end, one bad call here or there or a cold shooting streak or a hot shooting streak can easily mean the difference between a win and a loss.

I think many people forget, especially with a single elimination tournament, the best team doesn't always win, and I would probably take it a step further, in the NCAA tournament (at least in the men's) the best team overall in that season probably doesn't win the national title a majority of the time!

I can think of a few examples for either side. When UConn won it in 2014 with a 26-8 regular season record, not winning either their regular season or post-season conference title, were they really the best college basketball team that year, heck no, but they got hot and had great match-ups and all they had to do was beat the 6 teams in front of them on their way to a championship, not all of the other 67 teams!

Going the other way, back in 2012, was that Kentucky team that went 32-2 in the regular season with Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and many others and who eventually won it all, the best team in college basketball that year, most definitely.

When Arizona, back in 1997, beat three #1 seeds (still the only team to do that) on their way to their one and only national title, were they the best team that year, definitely not, but they got hot and had good match-ups and some luck. That team had a regular season record of 19-9, a conference record of 11-7, finishing 5th!

The best part of a tourney is when another team on the opposite side of your region does the "dirty work" and takes out that #1 or #2 seed for you and then you have a great/favorable match-up with them and beat them.
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Old 03-07-2018, 01:46 PM
 
2,841 posts, read 1,785,417 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SonnyCrockett View Post
I agree the experience factor is hogwash. I love all these cliches spouted by these experts. Another one is "depth". Depth can matter, but it's contingent on how the officials are calling the game, and other variables. Depth isn't any more reliant of a determinant than when teams are going to go hot or cold from the perimeter. Give me a hot team with 5 very good players, even if they are all underclassmen, along with the ability to manufacture points when shooting goes cold.
Officiating is huge. Big Ten refs call nothing (few games they get a whistle happy) but on average its play on. If the refs assigned to a game typically call the touch fouls- its a huge adjustment for Big Ten teams.


Comes down to defending that usually carries from game to game with Offense being the great variable. The shots can fall one night and not the other. Although if you have a few players that can get to the basket and get the other team in foul trouble that can be a huge factor.


When I'm looking at my bracket....
I like a good road team that's playing well the last month. With numbers its Ken Pom's Defensive efficiency (Past 15 years, Most National Champion teams have been in Top 25 of D1 basketball with this rating) and teams that aren't too reliant on the perimeter offense (can get to the basket).


Picking mid major upsets- I like to see how well they played against the major conference teams in the early part of the year and then there margin of victory against conference foes.


Murray State checks some boxes here they played Auburn and Mid. Tenn Tough and have a lot of double digit wins. Loyola Chicago same thing and a win over Florida.
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Old 03-07-2018, 04:17 PM
 
929 posts, read 298,228 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eastcoastbias View Post
Officiating is huge. Big Ten refs call nothing (few games they get a whistle happy) but on average its play on. If the refs assigned to a game typically call the touch fouls- its a huge adjustment for Big Ten teams.


Comes down to defending that usually carries from game to game with Offense being the great variable. The shots can fall one night and not the other. Although if you have a few players that can get to the basket and get the other team in foul trouble that can be a huge factor.


When I'm looking at my bracket....
I like a good road team that's playing well the last month. With numbers its Ken Pom's Defensive efficiency (Past 15 years, Most National Champion teams have been in Top 25 of D1 basketball with this rating) and teams that aren't too reliant on the perimeter offense (can get to the basket).


Picking mid major upsets- I like to see how well they played against the major conference teams in the early part of the year and then there margin of victory against conference foes.


Murray State checks some boxes here they played Auburn and Mid. Tenn Tough and have a lot of double digit wins. Loyola Chicago same thing and a win over Florida.
Kenpom is the one metric that I find reliable in all of the team sports. It is an excellent barometer, even if like all else, rules get broken (see 2014 Uconn for example, particularly when it came to offensive efficiency. Other general aspects to look for in teams have shifted thru the years. I recall into the early 90s, it was suppose to be all about the guard play, particularly at the point. I also recall in that era that it seemed actually that being hot was often a BAD thing. Winning a conference tournament seemed to be the kiss of death. But those days seem to be long since over.

Last edited by SonnyCrockett; 03-07-2018 at 04:25 PM..
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Old 03-07-2018, 04:23 PM
 
929 posts, read 298,228 times
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Two substantial notes worth mentioning from today's afternoon games.
1. BC-NC State was a wail of a game. BC could be a bid stealer. I am not predicting they win the ACC tourney. However, they are capable, believe me.

2. Arizona State completed its monumental collapse in less than two months by losing to Colorado today. Not sure if a team has fallen so precipitously in that amount of time. They should have been ranked #1 at one point if polls were actually legit and teams were ranked by accomplishment. And now they won't even be in the Dance.
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Old 03-07-2018, 04:30 PM
 
Location: The City
22,343 posts, read 32,221,120 times
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Nova is getting healthy and had their little fits, think they could make a strong run


biggest concern is if they go flat from three or get beat up down low (Like Whisky did last year to them)




they ended up being forced to play a long bench which gave some experience that could come in handy
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Old 03-07-2018, 04:32 PM
 
929 posts, read 298,228 times
Reputation: 799
Quote:
Originally Posted by cjseliga View Post
With the NCAA tourny it's all about match-ups, having good players helps, but in the end, one bad call here or there or a cold shooting streak or a hot shooting streak can easily mean the difference between a win and a loss.

I think many people forget, especially with a single elimination tournament, the best team doesn't always win, and I would probably take it a step further, in the NCAA tournament (at least in the men's) the best team overall in that season probably doesn't win the national title a majority of the time!

I can think of a few examples for either side. When UConn won it in 2014 with a 26-8 regular season record, not winning either their regular season or post-season conference title, were they really the best college basketball team that year, heck no, but they got hot and had great match-ups and all they had to do was beat the 6 teams in front of them on their way to a championship, not all of the other 67 teams!

Going the other way, back in 2012, was that Kentucky team that went 32-2 in the regular season with Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and many others and who eventually won it all, the best team in college basketball that year, most definitely.

When Arizona, back in 1997, beat three #1 seeds (still the only team to do that) on their way to their one and only national title, were they the best team that year, definitely not, but they got hot and had good match-ups and some luck. That team had a regular season record of 19-9, a conference record of 11-7, finishing 5th!

The best part of a tourney is when another team on the opposite side of your region does the "dirty work" and takes out that #1 or #2 seed for you and then you have a great/favorable match-up with them and beat them.
I still feel the two best teams I ever saw was 85 Georgetown and 91 UNLV. And neither won it. 99 Duke is right up there as well, though 99 Uconn (Duke's opponent in the final) was an excellent team also. One that left me unconvinced was 03 Syracuse with Carmelo. Not close to being the best team in its own conference and got that controversial gift by playing the regionals in Albany despite only being a 3. 97 Arizona should have lost in the very first game vs South Alabama. Probably same thing for 2014 Uconn vs St Joes. The tourney sure is quirky often times.
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