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Old 05-30-2018, 08:29 PM
 
Location: Old Bellevue, WA
18,794 posts, read 14,280,441 times
Reputation: 7950

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I heard some media analyst say recently that NBA teams now MUST have a point guard who can shoot threes. Current playoff bracket situation can be seen here. Let's look at which teams had the better 3 point shooting point guard, and which teams won. The number in parentheses is the regular season 3 pt shooting percentage for the point guard in question. I put an asterisk next to the result if the team with the superior 3 point pct. won the series.


So of 14 total series so far (with one more to go), in only 2 cases did the team with the worse three point shooting point guard win. (NO over Portland, and Philly over Miami). That seems to me a pretty striking stat. I think the analyst was onto something!


Some of them are misleading of course since percentage does not necessarily tell the whole story. For example, I'd rate Kyle Lowry as a better shooter than George Hill because he is much higher volume. But Hill had the better pct. by a fairly small amount. And it's hard to argue that Rubio is better from distance than Westbrook. Both were poor.


Sorry about the formatting. I've never quite figured out how to do columns on CD. Maybe later I'll redo it in Word, and repost.








First Round


Toronto (Kyle Lowry 39.9%)
Washington (John Wall 37.1%)
Toronto won it.*


Cleveland (George Hill 41.5)
Indiana (Darren Collison 34.8)
Cleveland won.*


Philly (Ben Simmons 0.0 (!))
Miami (Goran Dragic 37.0)
Philly won.


Boston (Terry Rozier 38.1)
Milwaukee (Giannis 30.7)
Boston won.*


Houston (Chris Paul 39.9)
Minnesota (Jeff Teague 36.8)
Houston won.*


OKC (Russell Westbrook 29.8)
Utah (Ricky Rubio 31.8)
Utah won*


Portland (Damian Lillard 36.1)
New Orleans (Rajon Rondo 33.3)
NO won.


Golden State (Curry 42.3)
San Antonio (Patty Mills 37.2)
Golden State won*


Second Round


Cleveland (41.5)
Toronto (39.9)
Cleveland won*


Philly (0.0)
Boston (38.1)
Boston won*


Houston (39.9)
Utah (31.8)
Houston won*


Warriors (42.3)
New Orleans. (33.3)
Warriors won*


Third Round


Cleveland (41.5)
Boston (38.1)
Cleveland won*


Houston (39.9)
Warriors (42.3)
Warriors won*
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Old 05-31-2018, 10:28 AM
 
3,565 posts, read 1,876,835 times
Reputation: 2263
Quote:
Originally Posted by wutitiz View Post
I heard some media analyst say recently that NBA teams now MUST have a point guard who can shoot threes. Current playoff bracket situation can be seen here. Let's look at which teams had the better 3 point shooting point guard, and which teams won. The number in parentheses is the regular season 3 pt shooting percentage for the point guard in question. I put an asterisk next to the result if the team with the superior 3 point pct. won the series.


So of 14 total series so far (with one more to go), in only 2 cases did the team with the worse three point shooting point guard win. (NO over Portland, and Philly over Miami). That seems to me a pretty striking stat. I think the analyst was onto something!


Some of them are misleading of course since percentage does not necessarily tell the whole story. For example, I'd rate Kyle Lowry as a better shooter than George Hill because he is much higher volume. But Hill had the better pct. by a fairly small amount. And it's hard to argue that Rubio is better from distance than Westbrook. Both were poor.


Sorry about the formatting. I've never quite figured out how to do columns on CD. Maybe later I'll redo it in Word, and repost.
This is not a hard & fast rule. The need is this: to win basketball games against zone defenses, you need shooting. Few teams have shooting from the center position, and only a few more have shooting from the 4. Three shooters are enough, and significantly better than 2. Thus most teams will want shooting at the 1, 2, and 3 positions. The Jazz had shooting from the 4 (Ingles), and the 2 (Mitchell), whereas OKC just had shooting from the 3 (George). NO had spacing from the 5--a center with a strong midrange game and the ability to hit from 3. Plus they had a stretch 4 and shooting from the 2. Most importantly, they had great defense. The 76ers similarly had shooting from the 5, plus the 2, 3, and 4 (and a lot of defense).
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Old 05-31-2018, 04:58 PM
 
Location: Old Bellevue, WA
18,794 posts, read 14,280,441 times
Reputation: 7950
I agree it's not a hard&fast rule, and the devil is in the details. For example Curry didn't even play against the Spurs, so that series could be thrown out.


But anyway, I thought 2 of 14 was striking. This does not bode well for the 76'ers unless they can get Markelle Fultz back in action and maybe turn Simmons into more of a point forward. Also it does not bode well for the Lakers (Ball 30.5 3pt%) and the Chicago Bulls (Kris Dunn 32.1). As a Bulls fan, I'm hoping Dunn does the Larry Bird 2000 shots per day program over the summer, and gets his distance shooting up to 35-37. He improved a lot this year, and does some other things well, I think.
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Old 06-03-2018, 12:11 AM
 
1,159 posts, read 1,065,489 times
Reputation: 1518
I think that was a general statement about how the elite teams use that advantage of a versatile position. Typically you want players who can stretch the floor to create enough space for ball movement to a) tire out the defense and b) get higher percentage open shots. You don't have to have a PG to do this, but the better teams have a roster of players with multiple talent. However, a team that can't hit the 3 has a huge disadvantage since they cannot spread the floor. Such a team would need to have killer defense and a knack for rebounding.

The NBA has been favoring smaller ball over the years and I think you're going to see teams build up their 3-point talents. You're also seeing more players routinely shooting from well beyond the 3 (Lillard, Westbrook, Durant, Curry, Thompson, Harden, E. Gordon, R. Anderson, Danny Green, Ginobli, etc), those guys really stretch the floor and deflate the opposing defense.
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