Baton Rouge-Fast Forward 30 Years (Washington, Tangipahoa: homes, job outlook, construction)

[annie_himself]

What do you think the Baton Rouge metro area will look like in roughly 30 years?

Discuss population, job outlook, economy, developments, areas of the city, etc.

On of my guesses is that the city will improve, but only in the easy areas such as the southern part of the city/parish. For example mid-city and north Baton Rouge will continue to be neglected as attention is facing LSU, downtown, and "uptown/Diamond district." More connecting streets to create a more complete grid. MSA: 900,000-1,100,000

Have fun.

[Park Bolivar]

Originally Posted by annie_himself

On of my guesses is that the city will improve, but only in the easy areas such as the southern part of the city/parish. For example mid-city and north Baton Rouge will continue to be neglected as attention is facing LSU, downtown, and "uptown/Diamond district." More connecting streets to create a more complete grid. MSA: 900,000-1,100,000

Have fun.

The city lives and dies on LSU. If LSU improves as a university, the types of jobs and the quality of new residents attracted to the city improves. If LSU declines, well....

[annie_himself]

Not really... LSU isn't the only thing here.

[Park Bolivar]

Originally Posted by annie_himself

Not really... LSU isn't the only thing here.

In terms of employment and hiring:

1. State Government will be stagnant for quite some time
2. The chemical industry will hold the same if not slightly declining number of people
3. The residential construction-world is stagnant (which is fine by me, building tract-homes is no source for a sustainable economy)
4. The medical industry will continue to grow as more personnel are required to service a graying populace

That's pretty well it.

In terms of creating new jobs, only LSU seems to be doing much of anything in terms of attracting talent and investment (through peripheral industry), and, even then, it's pretty much a drop in the bucket. Were LSU to add another 20k students, it would have a pretty positive effect on the local economy (basically adding 20k new people who consume far more than they produce, and generally all retail and entertainment.)

But, I don't see much else driving it.

[annie_himself]

How exactly is LSU going to add 20k more students? That's nearing 50k in student population.

[Park Bolivar]

Originally Posted by annie_himself

How exactly is LSU going to add 20k more students? That's nearing 50k in student population.

Admissions standards get tougher and tougher at UT and Texas A&M, thus forcing well-heeled Texan students to come to LSU? (that's what seems to be the case at present).

[annie_himself]

I'm thinking LSU would adopt the same techniques, if they use that to gain more students like you said then maybe there will be a noticeable increase but I'm not seeing LSU doubling it's population as well as doubling the employees, improving infrastructure, and amenities.

[mhounit]

Originally Posted by Park Bolivar

In terms of employment and hiring:

1. State Government will be stagnant for quite some time
2. The chemical industry will hold the same if not slightly declining number of people
3. The residential construction-world is stagnant (which is fine by me, building tract-homes is no source for a sustainable economy)
4. The medical industry will continue to grow as more personnel are required to service a graying populace

That's pretty well it.

In terms of creating new jobs, only LSU seems to be doing much of anything in terms of attracting talent and investment (through peripheral industry), and, even then, it's pretty much a drop in the bucket. Were LSU to add another 20k students, it would have a pretty positive effect on the local economy (basically adding 20k new people who consume far more than they produce, and generally all retail and entertainment.)

Where did you get all of these " facts " ? Number four is the only one I would agree with . The OP said " metro area " . You're not looking at the big picture .

[annie_himself]

I agree with the second, as energy becomes more expensive, oil will become less important, although we do have some natural gas here, which may reverse that effect. The state government will probably grow as they are starting to push economic development and the population grows. We want cookie cutter type developments need to stop anyway, more focus is on the city proper.

One thing I would like to see is a MASSIVE windfarm along coastal Louisiana. Something that could possibly power most or all of South Louisiana.

[Park Bolivar]

Originally Posted by mhounit

Where did you get all of these " facts " ? Number four is the only one I would agree with . The OP said " metro area " . You're not looking at the big picture .

Some quick background:

I. The Baton Rouge MSA grows by 7,000 people a year.

• 5k is total births (around 11k) minus total deaths (around 6k)
• 1k is domestic immigration
• 1k is international immigration

II. Of the 786k people in the BR MSA, about 372k are working. The remainder are children, students, elderly, disabled, stay-at-home-parents, or unemployed. Basically, about 47% of the population is working. This is close to national figures and averages.

III. Throwing out the births minus deaths numbers, we can focus on the 2k immigrants to our area each year. By the 47% number above, it's fair to say that the BR Metro creates at/around 900 jobs a year (and it's done that for the past 15 years) which attract those 2k people. (Last year, the BR Metro created around 300 jobs).

So, as for my points, here's the source http://www.laworks.net/Downloads/LMI...dustryProj.xls

2008-2018 projections from the very optimistic Department of Labor (which adds Tangipahoa and Washington to the Metro Area Definition)

1. State Government (excluding universities and hospitals) employment grows 4.3% over a decade in the metro, from 23,942 employees to 24,975. Adding 103.3 employees a year.

2. Chemical Manufacturing grows from 9,722 to 10,675, 9.8% over a decade. Adding 95.3 employees a year.

3. Residential Construction (including light commercial) falls from 10,180 to 7,956, a 21.8% drop over a decade. Falling 222.4 employees a year.

4. Healthcare grows from 52,129 to 64,479, a 21.4% increase. Adding 1,235 employees a year.

Mind you, healthcare's meteoric growth is offset by losses in agriculture, mining, construction, and manufacturing.