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Bend Deschutes County
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Old 01-28-2017, 08:05 AM
 
Location: North Idaho
32,539 posts, read 47,619,487 times
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I just figured nobody would be out looking to buy in this weather. But my son just got an offer on his house. He was surprised but the agent says she has been taking people out to look at it.

They have to hike in to see the house. My son is taking the snow blower up tomorrow to try to clear the driveway. We were there last Sunday to pick up firewood and the big 4WD truck would barely make it in there.

People who are buying right now really know what they are getting if they move to Central Oregon. I don't know if sellers are taking lower offers or if prices are staying firm.
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Old 01-31-2017, 05:50 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
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I wonder when the crash is coming?

My house's zillow estimate is now officially more than double what I paid for it 3 years ago. From looking at zillow's recently sold data, it looks like houses are selling about 5% lower than the zesimate so it's pretty close... at least in Redmond. Nearby houses of similar condition and size have sold for about what I'd expect... around double what I paid. Makes me want to sell, but then where would I go? It's all high.

The house across the street from me is trying to cash in. They just listed their place for an insane amount.

Didn't check Bend.

I have to wonder how a 33% increase per year can be maintained.
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Old 01-31-2017, 08:34 PM
 
Location: Bend OR
811 posts, read 1,054,591 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
I wonder when the crash is coming?

...... Makes me want to sell, but then where would I go? It's all high.

......
There is the catch.

And house hunters from the midwest and Northeast probably see this snow and say "is that all ya got?"

Of course they also don't have a firm grip on the plowing situation either....or lack of it.
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Old 02-01-2017, 11:48 AM
 
Location: Redmond, OR
740 posts, read 1,244,407 times
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In the for what it's worth category, I was talking to the realtor who helped us buy our house here in Redmond 3 years ago and he thinks the market is leveling off. The average pay in Deschutes isn't high enough to buy a home here. He says Redmond and even Prineville are getting too high for service industry pay scales. Retirees are only going to buy so many of the homes.
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Old 02-02-2017, 03:14 AM
 
Location: Bend, OR
1,337 posts, read 3,268,361 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coniferian View Post
In the for what it's worth category, I was talking to the realtor who helped us buy our house here in Redmond 3 years ago and he thinks the market is leveling off. The average pay in Deschutes isn't high enough to buy a home here. He says Redmond and even Prineville are getting too high for service industry pay scales. Retirees are only going to buy so many of the homes.
No doubt and the statistics back it up.

Goes without saying, but it's fueled by supply and demand. Why Redmond has jumped so much in the last few years because many have been priced out of Bend proper and so they look.......

The huge increases are both reasonable and unreasonable. Without context they seem absurd, but so, too, was the over correction of 50-70% in 2008/9.

One thing is an absolute: these appreciation rates are not sustainable. But I would be surprised if they continue to rise at this rate now that we're getting close-ish to the last peak. If they do not, then people should start to get VERY worried, myself included.

Another certainly. The new UGB will not help THAT much. It'll help saturate the market, to a degree, but the next UGB approval is the one that will put a substantial dent to this growing issue. The city was just waaaaay too behind after the first remand in the mid-2000's.

This is why the city is so keen on getting that process going again even though they literally just got approval.
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Old 02-02-2017, 06:49 AM
 
Location: North Idaho
32,539 posts, read 47,619,487 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
.......I have to wonder how a 33% increase per year can be maintained.
It will slow down. A lot of what looks like huge increases are merely making up what was lost in the crash. Home prices dropped as much as 50%. That's a lot to make up. There was a lot of pent up demand with people who had planned to move having to wait and then all trying to come in the last 2 years or so.

On top of that, construction stopped completely for several years, so the supply did not grow at a steady normal rate.

My agent (2 days ago) says that buyers are still arriving from out of town and still buying. She also said that people in escrow are nervous about possible damage and demanding additional inspections to verify all is still in good condition.

The market in Bend is completely dependent upon how real estate is doing in more expensive areas. If real estate is high and selling in California, then real estate will be going up on Bend. If the market in California stalls and real estate is not selling, then real estate in Bend stops selling and prices will drop. Many of the people on the local economy can not afford the prices, so they are not the buyer's pool.
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Old 02-02-2017, 12:51 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
10,022 posts, read 7,168,058 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oregonwoodsmoke View Post
It will slow down. A lot of what looks like huge increases are merely making up what was lost in the crash. Home prices dropped as much as 50%. That's a lot to make up. There was a lot of pent up demand with people who had planned to move having to wait and then all trying to come in the last 2 years or so.

On top of that, construction stopped completely for several years, so the supply did not grow at a steady normal rate.

My agent (2 days ago) says that buyers are still arriving from out of town and still buying. She also said that people in escrow are nervous about possible damage and demanding additional inspections to verify all is still in good condition.

The market in Bend is completely dependent upon how real estate is doing in more expensive areas. If real estate is high and selling in California, then real estate will be going up on Bend. If the market in California stalls and real estate is not selling, then real estate in Bend stops selling and prices will drop. Many of the people on the local economy can not afford the prices, so they are not the buyer's pool.
Yes, the value is approaching what it was in late 2006. I hope it doesn't go too much further beyond this, because the higher it goes, the harder it will fall.
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Old 02-03-2017, 09:36 AM
 
Location: Bend OR
811 posts, read 1,054,591 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redguard57 View Post
Yes, the value is approaching what it was in late 2006. I hope it doesn't go too much further beyond this, because the higher it goes, the harder it will fall.
Having lived through both the Bay Area and the Seattle area, during periods where people have continually said "prices certainly can't go higher than this", and now remember fondly those relatively low prices, I am predicting you may be optimistic to think prices will never exceed 2006 housing prices, and anything outside of your budget indicates a crash is imminent. But I could be wrong.

I will say I was shocked by the housing prices found in many parts of Bend, with the job market being so low paying. But then we had to move out of the Seattle area because the housing shot past our budget. (and the traffic sucks). And with a bit of searching found a reasonably priced house compared to where we moved from.

And we moved from the Bay Area to Seattle back in 1985 because we could not afford a house in the Bay Area.

So that is two major moves we have done in our lives due to housing markets that keep on rising in prices beyond what many can afford. Its a cruel world and sometimes you have to be the one to adapt.

But do note there are still a lot of people figuring out how to continue to live in those now pricey areas.

Time will tell...
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Old 02-03-2017, 10:01 PM
 
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High priced real estate in major metro areas is supported by high paying jobs. IMO Bend's real estate is being driven up largely by the VisitBend marketing machine.
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Old 02-04-2017, 06:55 AM
 
19 posts, read 33,576 times
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VisitBend is obviously pushing the image but Bend is truly a lovely, friendly place, at least in my limited experience there. The growth and price escalation wouldn't occur without that, i.e., just due to marketing. There has to be some there there. And from what I've seen there is.
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