Prices dropping in Bend yet? (Portland, Medford: sales, for rent, loan)

[John Shaft]

Originally Posted by WorkinStiff

Wasn't Bend about the hottest market in Oregon two yrs ago???What's the RE markets in Portland, Salem & Eugene doing???

It was a VERY hot market for 3-4 years. And that's the problem. Prices can't increase by 30%+ a year and maintain that pace, especially when they get way ahead of salaries. Anything that swings up that quickly will drop just as quickly (see the stock market of the 1990s).

Bend prices were driven by Californians retiring and relocating where they could get more house for their bucks. Most industry in Bend revolves around tourism or servicing these retirees, and these are not high-income type jobs. $12/hr jobs don't allow you to buy a $450K house...which is why many native Bendites were getting pushed out to Redmond and Prineville.

Meanwhile, the California housing market busted, and suddenly the influx of retirees slowed and/or stopped. Now, builders were stuck with these $600K homes and no market of buyers.

As for elsewhere in Oregon, I know nothing about Salem or Eugene. Portland is starting to feel the housing hit across the nation but to a much smaller degree. My own opinion is that it is just yet to happen--prices went up in PDX later than elsewhere in the nation and thus they will drop later. Some sources I've read predict a 20% drop in housing, but there are some factors that might prevent that (PDX is still cheaper than other west coast big cities, the urban growth boundary, dense and not overbuilt housing).

All this is just my wild opinion. I am not involved in the real estate industry whatsoever (besides being a homeowner); I have just read a lot of RE data over the past 1.5 years.

[mddd]

Bend prices have dropped and there was some oversupply in some neighborhoods as builders overbuilt during the run u in prices.

Some homes are available at a good price now. Have seen some of the drops leveling off in the better more established neighborhoods withe an increase in some activity. Probably a good time to buy if you are careful and shop around.

[CHEWY12]

Last week there were 53 NOD's filed in Deschutes County. 13 of them were in one subdivision in Redmond alone which will hit the auction block in Oct.
At the current rate Deschutes County will more than double last years foreclosures.

You may want to wait a little longer to let the Bend MSA bleed out before plunking down your hard earned cash on a property that will lose value and take a long time to make up the loss let alone make you a profit.

[delta07]

I recently relocated to Bend and decided to rent because the market is so unpredictable right now. However, we are really itching to own again. Our rental is a dump and we are paying too much for it. The only plus is that it is a month-to-month lease, which is extremely rare to find. This is the reason we chose to rent the house. We want to be able to move when we find the right house to buy. I'm afraid that buying now would be a mistake though. I've been watching real estate in Bend for about 6 months now and the prices continue to drop. I have seen some leveling off though, but wonder if that is just the summer months or ??? There are some deals to be had, but we want to really be picky about the location. After all, with gas prices continuing to skyrocket, we will need to ride our bikes everywhere. Should we continue to sit and wait, or is now (like in the next 3 months or so) a good time to buy?

[Nina-in-Ashland]

Delta,

Do you have a realtor there who can give you info on the current market trends? Have you found a property that you like and tried making an aggressive offer? Firsthand experience might give you some insight into what is going on in the minds of some sellers. I would imagine that in more challenged markets anyone who doesn't REALLY have to be on the market wouldn't be, so you might have more bargaining power than you know if you guys are itching to get out of your rental. A realtor can tell you how long the house has been listed, how long the current owners have been there, what they paid for the house, etc. - all good bgr information for determining your offer.

Good luck and please let us know what happens if you make a go for it!

Nina

[Bendite]

Originally Posted by delta07

I recently relocated to Bend and decided to rent because the market is so unpredictable right now. However, we are really itching to own again. Our rental is a dump and we are paying too much for it. The only plus is that it is a month-to-month lease, which is extremely rare to find. This is the reason we chose to rent the house. We want to be able to move when we find the right house to buy. I'm afraid that buying now would be a mistake though. I've been watching real estate in Bend for about 6 months now and the prices continue to drop. I have seen some leveling off though, but wonder if that is just the summer months or ??? There are some deals to be had, but we want to really be picky about the location. After all, with gas prices continuing to skyrocket, we will need to ride our bikes everywhere. Should we continue to sit and wait, or is now (like in the next 3 months or so) a good time to buy?

I'd wait for a little while unless you see a foreclosure come up that looks interesting. You could contact a realtor to discuss that as an option. I think we are not out of the woods yet - I'm sure you've read where some developers are going bankrupt or are struggling to refinance their projects. It sounds kind of mean to look for foreclosures, but you are likely to get the lowest price for the best house and then eventually prices will rise again and you'll have some equity. You might choose your top locations, for example, NW Crossing, and then see what's being forclosed on. There was a map in the Bulletin a couple of weeks ago that put flags up where all the foreclosures are and I was astounded at the numbers.

[delta07]

Thanks for responding Nina and Bendite. We have been receiving a daily MLS listing from a local realtor, which includes days on the market, etc. Some of the houses have been on the market for a while now, so we know the market is slow. Interesting, Bendite, how you mentioned forclosures. We have been thinking more and more about one. It seems like these days many forclosures are nice homes, and unfortunately many people fell into the adjustable rate mortgages.

We are not even considering NW crossing. It's just way out of our budget!!! We are actually looking for a mid-town, older home that would be closer to the hospital where my husband will work.

[Bendite]

I see on Yahoo's real estate site that there are 73 foreclosures in Bend at 250k or less. Wow.

[John Shaft]

It's the "best buyer's market in 20 years" if you believe all the local real estate hype. (IMO: Don't.) I highly suspect that next year will be an even better buyer's market as the prices continue to crash. I'm very much a doom-and-gloomer when it comes to real estate prices in Bend:
* Price increases due to Californian in-migration. Cali's RE market is in the tank, so people aren't selling million dollar homes and relocating to Bend with wads of cash.
* Service-based economy with limited industry means if you don't bring money with you, it'll be hard to make money in Bend. That puts a cap on home prices.

[wannabeinbend]

Never mind...