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Old 06-10-2013, 04:26 PM
 
37,787 posts, read 41,454,075 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tourian View Post
Now that it is IN to revitalize a city's core then for it to spread out, Birmingham won't necessarily experience the massive amounts of sprawl that Atlanta or Charlotte have. We're also not a cluster of small cities like the triangle. We've got a decent network of roads and enough "room" downtown to support another 100k worth of residents if this current direction is more then just a fad but rather a trend here to stay.
Unfortunately, sprawl isn't going anywhere. While Birmingham may not experience as much of it as Atlanta and Charlotte (relative to the size of the city) if it hits a growth spurt in the future, it will still experience a good bit of it. Intown living is certainly becoming more popular, but it should be realized that this is still among a pretty narrow demographic: single professionals, DINKs (including gay couples), and empty nesters. Families will still by and large opt for the 'burbs for one reason primarily: schools.
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Old 06-11-2013, 10:08 AM
 
2,450 posts, read 5,574,548 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
Unfortunately, sprawl isn't going anywhere. While Birmingham may not experience as much of it as Atlanta and Charlotte (relative to the size of the city) if it hits a growth spurt in the future, it will still experience a good bit of it. Intown living is certainly becoming more popular, but it should be realized that this is still among a pretty narrow demographic: single professionals, DINKs (including gay couples), and empty nesters. Families will still by and large opt for the 'burbs for one reason primarily: schools.
for one thing, that narrow demographic is not all that narrow, and is growing MUCH faster than the demographic of those with families.
I don't think anyone thinks that we can have absolutely no sprawl at all. But you can plan city growth to not have it be quite a dominating feature. In addition, the best schools tend to be in the inner suburbs these days. National trends for more outer suburbs are actually of increasing poverty and decreasing school quality.
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Old 06-11-2013, 05:04 PM
 
Location: Metro Birmingham, AL
1,672 posts, read 2,859,988 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tourian View Post
Please show me where I said I didn't want Bham to grow or for it to be stagnant.

All I'm getting at is there is a way for this city to grow into its own and be better without being Atlanta, kind of like Atlanta, diet Atlanta jr lite whatever. As long it is on an upward trajectory and a modest pace I'm good.
Its impossible to become any version of Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville, etc. That being said there is nothing wrong in taking notice of the good ideas from the cities and try to make them work here in Birmingham.
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Old 06-11-2013, 05:19 PM
 
Location: Metro Birmingham, AL
1,672 posts, read 2,859,988 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Strangejelly View Post
Lol, anyone living in Bham complaining about Atlanta's sprawl or traffic as a reason not to live there are just making excuses for themselves. Just be honest.

I'd have more respect for those posters if they would just be honest and say they like the connections they have in Bham, or they like the slightly lower cost of living or, they don't care about having more to do as they don't do much or are satisfied with what Bham offers, or big city living isn't for me, or I prefer denser metros like DC. "Sprawl" happens in any sunbelt city and Atlanta traffic is on par with any large Metro.
If you want to be big time, your going to have to deal with big time issues. Things like traffic and sprawl are facts of life in any growing metro area. If jobs come, incomes rise, quality of life becomes better for more people then more traffic and more sprawl is the result of that.

We cant have it both ways. Cant have economic growth and keep Birmingham a little, big city.
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Old 06-11-2013, 06:06 PM
 
37,787 posts, read 41,454,075 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluebeard View Post
for one thing, that narrow demographic is not all that narrow, and is growing MUCH faster than the demographic of those with families.
Actually that is indeed a rather narrow demographic and where is your source that it's growing much faster than families? If it is, it's because the population base is so small to begin with. And even so, young professionals eventually get older and start families, and at that point a very large share of them head to the 'burbs.

Quote:
I don't think anyone thinks that we can have absolutely no sprawl at all. But you can plan city growth to not have it be quite a dominating feature. In addition, the best schools tend to be in the inner suburbs these days. National trends for more outer suburbs are actually of increasing poverty and decreasing school quality.
I've found that the best schools still tend to be out in the more outlying 'burbs. For instance, in metro Atlanta, the best schools are going to be in north Fulton, east Cobb, and south Forsyth counties--all in the far northern reaches. In my former city of Charlotte, they are found in suburban Union and York counties to the south.

Yes there has been increasing poverty in some suburbs and yes there is a back-to-the-core movement afoot, but I find that the trends are often blown out of proportion by many urban enthusiasts (and I consider myself to be one).
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Old 06-12-2013, 10:02 AM
 
Location: Birmingham
11,787 posts, read 17,634,822 times
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It doesn't matter where the best schools in Charlotte and Atlanta are. It has nothing to do with Birmingham. The best public schools here are in Vestavia, Mountain Brook and Hoover which are close to the city.

If a bunch of people with money move to a certain area and want things to change according to their will they will find a way. Hence the changes we are seeing right now in real time on a daily basis downtown. There are plenty of good private schools in the area and as demand grows there will be more.
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Old 06-12-2013, 11:18 AM
 
2,450 posts, read 5,574,548 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77 View Post
Actually that is indeed a rather narrow demographic and where is your source that it's growing much faster than families? If it is, it's because the population base is so small to begin with. And even so, young professionals eventually get older and start families, and at that point a very large share of them head to the 'burbs.
.
Out of a persons life, only the first 18 years, and then some 15-20 years later on (assuming that the person even has children) require decent public schools. the rest of the time public schools are irrelevant. This is not a narrow demographic.
But you want references for a trend that anecdotally is pretty easy to see (most of my friends live places without regard to public school, and a good proportion never plan to have children).
So, a not insignificant proportion of the population never has kids. Currently almost 20% of women aged 40-44 have never had a child:
Childlessness Up Among All Women; Down Among Women with Advanced Degrees | Pew Social & Demographic Trends
This is a pretty international trend for countries as they develop and we become an urban world:
Why the Choice to Be Childless is Bad for America - Newsweek and The Daily Beast

Without immigration, or birthrate would have fallen below replacement rate a long time ago. The simplest way to look at the declining importance of public schools to now and future generations is by the declining birth rate:
As U.S. birth rate drops, concern for the future mounts

This may partially due delayed childbirth, but also due to births per women and an aging population (both groups who do not need to worry about schools).

In addition, there is added desire to live closer to the city and generally live in non-car-oriented places as you get towards younger generations. This is evidenced by lower driver's license rates, lower car ownership, etc.. among millennial. Of course as some get older they will drive more. But there is reason to believe the habits they have formed will stick, and that a significant proportion will never drive (especially given the above statistics) and that when they o, they will be more accustomed to urban living and short commutes, so will forgo many other factors to live in areas that have decent public schools, but are closer to the city.
As Youth Driver Licensing Dips Again, A Focus on the Millennials | Streetsblog Capitol Hill
A New Direction | U.S. PIRG

It may be hard to see this in Birmingham because it is (a) a small to medium size city, so its easier to live in a suburb and maintain a relatively short commute and (b) the traditional mindset here where trends come a decent amount of time later and people still maintain desires for things like big, cheap housing and lots with little regard for commuting times, walkability, etc...

These trends represent a significant proportion of the population, particularly in certain regions of the country. Bham would be wise to catch this wave and have proper urban planning. Population growth alone will not be enough to maintain economic health in the not so distant future.
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Old 06-12-2013, 05:09 PM
 
28,896 posts, read 53,932,532 times
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Personally, I cannot wait for the last child to graduate high school. Then we'll be back on the northern slope of Red Mountain again.
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Old 06-12-2013, 10:34 PM
 
37,787 posts, read 41,454,075 times
Reputation: 27037
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tourian View Post
It doesn't matter where the best schools in Charlotte and Atlanta are. It has nothing to do with Birmingham. The best public schools here are in Vestavia, Mountain Brook and Hoover which are close to the city.
I mentioned Charlotte and Atlanta because bluebeard said that having the best schools in a region be in the closer-in suburbs was a national trend. This isn't the case in those cities as well as a couple of others, and the "decline of the suburbs" is pretty exaggerated.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bluebeard View Post
Out of a persons life, only the first 18 years, and then some 15-20 years later on (assuming that the person even has children) require decent public schools. the rest of the time public schools are irrelevant. This is not a narrow demographic.
But you want references for a trend that anecdotally is pretty easy to see (most of my friends live places without regard to public school, and a good proportion never plan to have children).
So, a not insignificant proportion of the population never has kids. Currently almost 20% of women aged 40-44 have never had a child:
Childlessness Up Among All Women; Down Among Women with Advanced Degrees | Pew Social & Demographic Trends
This is a pretty international trend for countries as they develop and we become an urban world:
Why the Choice to Be Childless is Bad for America - Newsweek and The Daily Beast

Without immigration, or birthrate would have fallen below replacement rate a long time ago. The simplest way to look at the declining importance of public schools to now and future generations is by the declining birth rate:
As U.S. birth rate drops, concern for the future mounts

This may partially due delayed childbirth, but also due to births per women and an aging population (both groups who do not need to worry about schools).
Simply because some women choose not to have children or delay having children doesn't automatically mean they belong to groups more likely to choose downtown living. One also has to include such factors as educational attainment levels, socioeconomic status, etc.

Quote:
In addition, there is added desire to live closer to the city and generally live in non-car-oriented places as you get towards younger generations. This is evidenced by lower driver's license rates, lower car ownership, etc.. among millennial. Of course as some get older they will drive more. But there is reason to believe the habits they have formed will stick, and that a significant proportion will never drive (especially given the above statistics) and that when they o, they will be more accustomed to urban living and short commutes, so will forgo many other factors to live in areas that have decent public schools, but are closer to the city.
As Youth Driver Licensing Dips Again, A Focus on the Millennials | Streetsblog Capitol Hill
A New Direction | U.S. PIRG
I'd like to see this broken down by geographic region. In the South where public transportation is often substandard, I'm sure that trend doesn't hold nearly as strong as in the North and West--not to mention the politics surrounding transit and its funding in red states. That's a whole 'nother discussion though. I'm mentioning these things to bring a bit more realism to the discussion.
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Old 06-13-2013, 09:43 AM
 
2,450 posts, read 5,574,548 times
Reputation: 1009
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77
I mentioned Charlotte and Atlanta because bluebeard said that having the best schools in a region be in the closer-in suburbs was a national trend. This isn't the case in those cities as well as a couple of others, and the "decline of the suburbs" is pretty exaggerated.
I didn't mean that in an exaggerated way. Just that suburbs can't immediately assumed to be educationally and economically superior in all places as they once were. And that this is the current, and likely long-term trend. I'm not suggesting that in 5, or even 50 years that all suburbs will all be ghettos. I'm just suggesting that the trend is for urban revival, and for living closer to the city to be more desired, thus the inner suburbs will likely have the best public schools (as is practically already the case in Bham).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77
Simply because some women choose not to have children or delay having children doesn't automatically mean they belong to groups more likely to choose downtown living. One also has to include such factors as educational attainment levels, socioeconomic status, etc.
Actually, it does when all the pieces are put together. I assume by accounting for education and such you are saying that, as in other larger cities, it tends to be the more educated that are returning? This is partially true. But given that educational levels are generally high and rising (although admittedly this may be a bubble ready to burst), and that younger generations in general have a stronger drive to live closer, then I think it does mean there is an increased demand. I'm not saying every individual will want to move in close, but in aggregate the trends point to this direction.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Mutiny77
I'd like to see this broken down by geographic region. In the South where public transportation is often substandard, I'm sure that trend doesn't hold nearly as strong as in the North and West--not to mention the politics surrounding transit and its funding in red states. That's a whole 'nother discussion though. I'm mentioning these things to bring a bit more realism to the discussion.
That was kind of my point: that Bham has been delayed in this trend due to regional cultural factors (which tends to hold for most non-coastal areas, really). This is the most valid critique: can a place like Bham really be compared to places that better embrace urban living. I think the answer isn't inevitably, but CAN be yes. I think that there is an increased desired shown in places even such as Atlanta. Its had to imagine it, but Oregon was a pretty rural and fairly conservative place not so long ago. Of course there are multiple reasons we are different here, but I do think that urban planning can better deal with these issues.

I'm not saying we can reach some new urbanist utopia. But that doesn't mean the trends can't be harnessed here, and that we can greatly encourage internal growth while minimizing external growth. As has been mentioned, there are even better options for places like the 280 corridor than we have now. If the region comes together with a desire and a plan, then things can happen (as was shown with the TIGER federal grant).
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