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Old 05-05-2021, 10:55 AM
 
10,179 posts, read 5,863,132 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bfmx1 View Post
Dont you think Mobile's woe's are because everyone's moving to Daphne and Fairhope across the bay? Their uptick is amazing given their size, so I have to think that Mobile is losing big time to their little brother next door.

I don't know. There's a good poster from Mobile who comes on here from time to time who could address that more. But, you're right. I was surprised by the numbers, too.



I know this is splitting hairs, but the numbers are through July, 2020. A lot of activity has happened in the past 10 months, driven partially by Covid and partially by a ramp of activity in markets such as Birmingham and Huntsville.
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Old 05-05-2021, 11:35 AM
 
1,386 posts, read 942,459 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bfmx1 View Post
Dont you think Mobile's woe's are because everyone's moving to Daphne and Fairhope across the bay? Their uptick is amazing given their size, so I have to think that Mobile is losing big time to their little brother next door.

Yea ever since the recession, much of the gulf coast growth has gone to Baldwin County for two reasons. For the past 10 years it has been very Woeful on Mobile County but I think in the long term it will benefit the city and county. Mobile area is currently going through suburbination like what Bham has gone through. Major growth in several suburbs with limited growth of the principle city, primarily in Baldwin County but you are seeing growth in Mobile County Suburbs (primarily Semmes, Saraland, along with unincorporated Grand Bay and Irvington).


This big issue that has harmed Mobile County is that Baldwin County is not part of the metro. Technicalities have limited the incorporation of Baldwin County into the Mobile County metro (which actually just acquired Washington County in the latest metro update). The big issue is the shear size of Baldwin County, being the biggest county in the state. It is really split into 2 regions, I consider highway 98 to be the dividing line between the two regions. The northern regions are the Mobile Suburbs (Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Daphne, Loxley, even Foley), the southern half is strictly a tourist destination making up Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, these latter region is growing just quick enough to keep the commuting rate below the 25% threshold. Another Issue is how many people are retired in the county. A lot of people go to Baldwin County for retirement which further messes with that 25% commuting threshold.


I personally believe that whoever keeps up with population of the counties/city for Alabama has really screwed over Mobile County. With 100k people not counted in previous estimates. I'm willing to bet a good chunk belongs to Mobile, Mobile County has had a healthy real estate market with numbers increasing every year by 8% since 2010 nearly doubling sales from the housing crash, so it makes no sense that the county would be stagnant, especially with a couple big companies coming to city in those 10 year. My guess is that they shorted the county by 10-15k people
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Old 05-05-2021, 12:01 PM
 
606 posts, read 390,705 times
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Are we sure this does NOT include Walker county? If not, I believe they also deducted it from 2010 as well, normalizing the data. Either, Walker Co lost population so it helps that they're not included in either.

Here's another snapshot of 1M+ sized metros, and a few more I chose for interest.
Attached Thumbnails
Cool News-2020-cenus-estimates.jpg  

Last edited by bfmx1; 05-05-2021 at 12:10 PM..
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Old 05-05-2021, 08:14 PM
 
Location: Madison, Alabama
10,235 posts, read 6,366,689 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bfmx1 View Post
Are we sure this does NOT include Walker county? If not, I believe they also deducted it from 2010 as well, normalizing the data. Either, Walker Co lost population so it helps that they're not included in either.

Here's another snapshot of 1M+ sized metros, and a few more I chose for interest.
It appears that they used the current metro definition, meaning the Walker County numbers were removed all the way back to 2010, so yes, the numbers have been normalized. You can look at the CSA numbers here: https://www2.census.gov/programs-sur...20-alldata.csv

Walker County is currently estimated at 63,143 which is about 4,000 fewer than in 2010. Not sure why they are shrinking. Coal industry declining even more perhaps?

What's the source for your attachment? They don't seem to match the Census Bureau estimates just released.
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Old 05-05-2021, 09:39 PM
 
10,179 posts, read 5,863,132 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RocketDawg View Post
It appears that they used the current metro definition, meaning the Walker County numbers were removed all the way back to 2010, so yes, the numbers have been normalized. You can look at the CSA numbers here: https://www2.census.gov/programs-sur...20-alldata.csv

Walker County is currently estimated at 63,143 which is about 4,000 fewer than in 2010. Not sure why they are shrinking. Coal industry declining even more perhaps?

What's the source for your attachment? They don't seem to match the Census Bureau estimates just released.

Walker is part of the Birmingham MSA. But the decline of coal hit them hard.

That being said, I-22 will likely have a substantial impact on Walker County in terms of becoming a minor distribution and light manufacturing center within the metro. Plus Jasper is actually an easier commute now to Birmingham than places such as Alabaster.
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Old 05-05-2021, 10:46 PM
 
Location: Birmingham, AL
2,294 posts, read 1,763,308 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MinivanDriver View Post
Walker is part of the Birmingham MSA.
walker county was removed from the MSA definition 2-3 years ago. ironically, it was right after I-22 opened.

birmingham MSA is now 6 counties, down from 7.
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Old 05-06-2021, 07:39 AM
 
606 posts, read 390,705 times
Reputation: 477
Quote:
Originally Posted by RocketDawg View Post
It appears that they used the current metro definition, meaning the Walker County numbers were removed all the way back to 2010, so yes, the numbers have been normalized. You can look at the CSA numbers here: https://www2.census.gov/programs-sur...20-alldata.csv

Walker County is currently estimated at 63,143 which is about 4,000 fewer than in 2010. Not sure why they are shrinking. Coal industry declining even more perhaps?

What's the source for your attachment? They don't seem to match the Census Bureau estimates just released.
That's from the original excel document. I did change the numbers in red because I added the 100k underestimate proportionately to each metro. What other numbers don't appear to match? I could have easily screwed something up.

Last edited by bfmx1; 05-06-2021 at 08:13 AM..
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Old 05-06-2021, 08:27 AM
 
10,179 posts, read 5,863,132 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TimCity2000 View Post
walker county was removed from the MSA definition 2-3 years ago. ironically, it was right after I-22 opened.

birmingham MSA is now 6 counties, down from 7.

You're right. Sorry. However, I honestly expect Walker to return to the MSA after either this census or the next.
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Old 05-06-2021, 04:10 PM
 
1,029 posts, read 1,199,297 times
Reputation: 790
Quote:
Originally Posted by MinivanDriver View Post
You're right. Sorry. However, I honestly expect Walker to return to the MSA after either this census or the next.
Recent business announcements in the northwestern Jefferson area suggest you are correct. Also, Walker has been removed from the metro in the past and returned.

Job seekers from Jefferson will help it return with the I-22 development beginning to find its feet.

I believe many don't realize that the 25% work migration counts in both directions as well as coming into an existing metro county. It does not have to be workers coming into Jefferson.
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Old 05-06-2021, 04:25 PM
 
Location: Madison, Alabama
10,235 posts, read 6,366,689 times
Reputation: 7028
Quote:
Originally Posted by MinivanDriver View Post
Walker is part of the Birmingham MSA. But the decline of coal hit them hard.

That being said, I-22 will likely have a substantial impact on Walker County in terms of becoming a minor distribution and light manufacturing center within the metro. Plus Jasper is actually an easier commute now to Birmingham than places such as Alabaster.
Walker was dropped out of the B'ham metro March 2020. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-conten...in-20-01.pdf?#
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