Boise-Metro Housing Market (mortgage, real estate, foreclosure)

[Anchorless]

That was a great post.

[Torrie]

Originally Posted by skiboise

From what I am hearing and reading, sales are at or near the bottom.

Inventory is trending down, but has not kept pace with the slowing of sales. Demand is out their, but it still continues to wait, mostly due to market psychology and the media. Out of state clients can not wait to move here, but are also experiencing difficulties selling.

That's exactly what I said.

[Torrie]

Just came across this list and wanted to share. The good news is, Boise isn't on it. The bad news is, some of you wanting to come to Boise might be on it. Keep in mind it's a forecast.

Worst Real Estate Markets in 2008

If you look to the left on the link above you can click on your state and see what it says. Here's Idaho's prediction including Boise for 2008

Idaho Real Estate, Boise, Coeur d'Alene, Kellogg, Idaho Falls, Sun Valley

[Anchorless]

Originally Posted by Torrie

Just came across this list and wanted to share. The good news is, Boise isn't on it. The bad news is, some of you wanting to come to Boise might be on it. Keep in mind it's a forecast.

Worst Real Estate Markets in 2008

If you look to the left on the link above you can click on your state and see what it says. Here's Idaho's prediction including Boise for 2008

Idaho Real Estate, Boise, Coeur d'Alene, Kellogg, Idaho Falls, Sun Valley

That first list is interesting - you'd think it would be isolated to the coasts, but it's not. And you don't see Denver and Fort Collins on there when last year it was among the nation's worst.

The pattern is, however, places that have grown far faster than the local market was ready to allow. This high demand (and trying to keep up supply) creates a superficial inflation that cannot sustain.

We saw the same thing happen in Boise, but (luckily) the recession hit and the bubble "burst" while we were still in the infant phase - another 3 or 4 years of hot growth and we'd have likely been on that list.

[Torrie]

Here's a new clip from last night's news in regards to the metro area market. It backs up what I was saying earlier in this thread. Our inventory is continuing to decrease.

Imagine negotiating a 2-1 buydown with the interest rates where they're at right now. If you're a buyer, dang what an opportunity!

Boise home sales drop 33%, realtor optimistic | KTVB.COM | Boise, Idaho News, Weather, Sports, Video, Traffic & Events | IDAHO NEWS

[AlleyTD]

Torrie,

Don't you think that some of the dropped inventory has to do with the time of year?

In other RE markets I have worked in, there was always a drop in inventory around the holidays and the beginning of the year.

In my area now, I know of several houses that have expired - and they are not planning to relist until the weather get a bit better (and that is a quote.)

A few others are just off the market because they are foreclosing.

Do you really believe that this is the lowest Ada and Canyon County homes will drop?

Just yesterday a house around the corner from us dropped from $379K to $334K - that's huge. And we are in Eagle. When I arrived this same house was $429K ... It is now down to under 120 per sq foot. I've seen the house and it's nice. It's not overpriced by any means, when a CMA is done on sales and other available homes in the neighborhood ... yet it sits there.

I may be new to the area, but I can't help but think that homes (outside of N. Boise) will continue to adjust and drop a bit more.

What do you really think ... In your heart / gut ... not using the latest MLS stats or an article ... just your gut instinct.

[Torrie]

This is why it's so important to follow statistics. MLS is you're tool.

Let me ask you this, do you know what the supply of homes are in Eagle? If you did, you probably wouldn't be asking me that question. Not trying to put you on the spot, just trying to help you understand. Here's what I mean: Last quarter, for resale homes, Oct-Dec 07 in MLS, Eagle had a 16.11 month supply of homes! If you pull up area 400- the Bench, it's a completely different ball game, it showed a 5.5month supply of homes(which is considered a normal amount to have). So it all depends where you live as to whether prices will go up or down based on the supply and demand.

Looking at Eagle further, if you pull up new construction for the same time frame, you have a 15.20 month supply! So as you can see your area might very well continue to see a decline in prices because the supply is too great. If more people put their houses on the market in Eagle in the spring it will further add to the problem if the demand isn't there.

If you break down each area you get a more realistic idea of where the market is and where it could be heading. So no gut needed, just look at the stats and you will begin to understand.

Now, just to detail it out even more, you could even break it down further by price point. I can tell you that the homes in the 600k and up have the most supply on the market and will most likely take longer to sell.

Hope that answers your question- I know it can be very confusing!

[AlleyTD]

Originally Posted by Torrie

This is why it's so important to follow statistics. MLS is you're tool.

Let me ask you this, do you know what the supply of homes are in Eagle? If you did, you probably wouldn't be asking me that question. Not trying to put you on the spot, just trying to help you understand. Here's what I mean: Last quarter, for resale homes, Oct-Dec 07 in MLS, Eagle had a 16.11 month supply of homes! If you pull up area 400- the Bench, it's a completely different ball game, it showed a 5.5month supply of homes(which is considered a normal amount to have). So it all depends where you live as to whether prices will go up or down based on the supply and demand.

Looking at Eagle further, if you pull up new construction for the same time frame, you have a 15.20 month supply! So as you can see your area might very well continue to see a decline in prices because the supply is too great. If more people put their houses on the market in Eagle in the spring it will further add to the problem if the demand isn't there.

If you break down each area you get a more realistic idea of where the market is and where it could be heading. So no gut needed, just look at the stats and you will begin to understand.

Now, just to detail it out even more, you could even break it down further by price point. I can tell you that the homes in the 600k and up have the most supply on the market and will most likely take longer to sell.

Hope that answers your question- I know it can be very confusing!

You did not put me on the spot, Torrie. Not only am I aware of all of inventory, I have physically been in 322 of the 437 single family homes currently available in Eagle. You should not make assumptions based on my question to you. You actually made my point for me. In some areas in Ada County in prices will continue to drop.

One can spout statistics 'till the cows come home, but statistics don’t always paint the clearest picture. That’s why I so dislike it when people just state what is on the MLS. Zip codes and subdivisions vary greatly, so stating that all of Boise is doing great, when in reality it maybe only certain sections, is in my opinion, slightly misleading.

Yes, you did say that IF you break it down you will get a clearer picture. My issue with some of your comments is that it seems you predominately state it as "all of Boise" ... you only clarify when someone calls you out or challenges a comment.

I asked you about your gut instinct, because as a Realtor and Social Psychologist, I have learned not to solely trust Statistics. I was wondering if you could think outside the box. I have found that many long time agents have stopped doing that. No offense implied ... just a difference of style. In my opinion there is a LOT more to the real estate market than what the MLS shows.

I do not look at the MLS as the Bible like most do and this has kept me from becoming a prisoner of "price per square foot, days on market" etc. Yes, those are important stats, but for the buyers agent who really wants to help someone by a home, not just an investment ... it can muddy things.

A smart person once said, "There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics." If you only believe statistics, then how do we explain that the same Presidential candidate can be 20 points ahead and 5 points behind his opponent in the polls at the same time? After all, both polls are "statistics".

Richard Taflinger once wrote: "We live in a world of statistics: you can find numbers in support of just about any idea.
You can find statistics that show cigarettes are killers and that they have no effect on anyone's health.
You can find statistics that say you should cut down on the consumption of dairy products and that dairy products are good for you.
You can find statistics that prove that soft drinks will give you cancer and that they have no effect on anything but your thirst (or even that they make you thirstier).
Every one of these sets of statistics is absolutely true.

The phrase "numbers don't lie" is true; what you need to examine is who is publishing the numbers, and what are they trying to prove with them.

Are the statistics provided by the American Cancer Society or the American Tobacco Institute?
Are they provided by the American Medical Association or the American Dairy Association?
Are they provided by the Cancer Institute or the United States Food and Drug Administration?
(Did the latter give you pause? It should. Both are reputable. Yet both have differing opinions based on statistics.)

Every point of view uses statistics to support their ideas. It's our job to examine all statistics supporting all points of view, to arrive at our own conclusions based on all of them."

Once again Torrie, we can simply agree to disagree. This is probably the reason Realtors are as different as snowflakes. And that is a good thing.

[Torrie]

To each his own I suppose. People want facts not just what my gut is. MLS is a great tool if you know how to use it and I choose to use it. It's a great way to see what's going on in the market so you can help make better decisions for your buyers, sellers and builders. It's not a predictor, it's an indicator.

My guess that you don't follow inventory is due to this question you asked:

Originally Posted by AlleyTD

I may be new to the area, but I can't help but think that homes (outside of N. Boise) will continue to adjust and drop a bit more..

You don't have to "wonder" if you've been charting the inventory you would see where this happening and you would be able to tell what areas might drop and what areas might go up. You would know the answer to the question your posing above had you been following along- there's no guessing, it's right there in front of you, that's the beauty of it and that's what I'm sharing with you.

Your gut doesn't always have credibility. If you walk up to a builder and say "I can't help but think that homes(outside of N. Boise) will continue to adjust and drop a bit more.. the builder is going to want to know what you're basing that on. He's going to want to know/ and will mostly likely believe hard data over a "gut feeling".

What a benefit to offer your clients by knowing what the market is doing in different areas. It allows you guidelines for both buying and selling that will help you negotiate better in favor of your client no matter what side you represent. I would ask why wouldn't you want to use that?

That's your choice to make if you don't like using statistics, but I find it very advantageous and it keeps me ahead of the curve which in essence benefits my client so I will continue to use them. MLS is a tool, nothing more. It's not perfect, but it's the closest we have to tracking what's going on in the market.

I explained early on in this thread (my second post)how different areas have different numbers so I don't think I've mislead anyone. Sorry if you think I'm not thinking outside the box, - actually I think I am, as most agents won't take the time to pull stats every quarter. It's a personal choice and I feel it is an asset to my clients so I will continue to make it a part of my business model.

[Anchorless]

Originally Posted by AlleyTD

You did not put me on the spot, Torrie. Not only am I aware of all of inventory, I have physically been in 322 of the 437 single family homes currently available in Eagle. You should not make assumptions based on my question to you. You actually made my point for me. In some areas in Ada County in prices will continue to drop.

One can spout statistics 'till the cows come home, but statistics don’t always paint the clearest picture. That’s why I so dislike it when people just state what is on the MLS. Zip codes and subdivisions vary greatly, so stating that all of Boise is doing great, when in reality it maybe only certain sections, is in my opinion, slightly misleading.

Yes, you did say that IF you break it down you will get a clearer picture. My issue with some of your comments is that it seems you predominately state it as "all of Boise" ... you only clarify when someone calls you out or challenges a comment.

I asked you about your gut instinct, because as a Realtor and Social Psychologist, I have learned not to solely trust Statistics. I was wondering if you could think outside the box. I have found that many long time agents have stopped doing that. No offense implied ... just a difference of style. In my opinion there is a LOT more to the real estate market than what the MLS shows.

I do not look at the MLS as the Bible like most do and this has kept me from becoming a prisoner of "price per square foot, days on market" etc. Yes, those are important stats, but for the buyers agent who really wants to help someone by a home, not just an investment ... it can muddy things.

A smart person once said, "There are three ways to not tell the truth: lies, damned lies, and statistics." If you only believe statistics, then how do we explain that the same Presidential candidate can be 20 points ahead and 5 points behind his opponent in the polls at the same time? After all, both polls are "statistics".

Richard Taflinger once wrote: "We live in a world of statistics: you can find numbers in support of just about any idea.
You can find statistics that show cigarettes are killers and that they have no effect on anyone's health.
You can find statistics that say you should cut down on the consumption of dairy products and that dairy products are good for you.
You can find statistics that prove that soft drinks will give you cancer and that they have no effect on anything but your thirst (or even that they make you thirstier).
Every one of these sets of statistics is absolutely true.

The phrase "numbers don't lie" is true; what you need to examine is who is publishing the numbers, and what are they trying to prove with them.

Are the statistics provided by the American Cancer Society or the American Tobacco Institute?
Are they provided by the American Medical Association or the American Dairy Association?
Are they provided by the Cancer Institute or the United States Food and Drug Administration?
(Did the latter give you pause? It should. Both are reputable. Yet both have differing opinions based on statistics.)

Every point of view uses statistics to support their ideas. It's our job to examine all statistics supporting all points of view, to arrive at our own conclusions based on all of them."

Great points, all.

I tend to agree.