Boise-Metro Housing Market (Mountain Home: to rent, broker, houses)

[Anchorless]

Originally Posted by skiboise

This is good news. I had hoped/speculated that Idaho(Boise) could have a lower foreclosure rate compared to the scary national numbers in the news. I guess that makes us financially conservative...

Doesn't that just mean that our prices hadn't superficially skyrocketed as they had on the coasts?

[skiboise]

We did have a shorter appreciation run, but subprime is contributing around 30% to foreclosures nationwide, so part of the foreclosure equation would add in sub prime. It's a stretch to say that equals fiscal conservative, but I was focused more on sub prime contribution or lack of. not intended as a serious statement...

[Anchorless]

5 a.m. -- Idaho finishes 20th in the nation for foreclosures in 2007 | News Updates | Idaho Statesman (broken link)

According to the Statesman Idaho finished 2007 ranked 20th in foreclosures. Not terrible, but not great either.

[bigbyrd]

Torrie; your outlook seems to contradict national statistics. As to higher prices in the spring due to a smaller inventory I would suggest caution. In most forclosures there is a one year redemption period; during this period most lenders do not aggresively market a property for sale. Should we be looking to a 2 to 5 year market versus that of the next six months. Then of course there is the election and the hopes of many for some kind of a government bailout on their soon to be forclosure property.

[Torrie]

You bet it does, if you take the time to look at some of the links I've posted you will see that Boise-Metro has fared better than most markets. I can't repost the same links twice otherwise I'd add them here, you'll have to let your fingers do the walking. One company, Housing Predictor, forecasts Boise to have a 3.5 increase in appreciation for 2008.

Each market is going to be different. Just because you watch the news doesn't mean the outlook applies to all, that's the trap that many fall under. I'm not saying the real estate market in our area is the best it's ever been, but our area is showing signs of recovery.

Is it possible that things in the future could affect the recovery of our market?, of course, but since I don't have a crystal ball I have know way of predicting that. With the information I do have to work with, we are seeing a decline in inventory in parts of Boise-Metro, some areas are down to a 4.5month supply of homes which is considered "healthy" and where you want it to be.

Maybe once you move here, live here, and become more familiar with the area and see all that it has to offer you will have a better understanding as to why parts of Boise-Metro have fared better than many other US cities.

[Anchorless]

A word of warning - I had coffee yesterday with a long time realtor in the Valley (since retired). The topic of the housing market was brought up, and I asked his opinion of how the situation is in Boise.

I asked, specifically, "do you think it's better or worse than the local media describes it?" He thought it was much worse, and he figured it will keep getting worse for the next year to 18 months (before it starts getting better).

He mentioned that while the local media does describe foreclosure statistics as well as local inventory, it usually neglects to mention the foreclosures will soon enough enter the local inventory, only adding to the current supply.

He did think we would (and are) fare better than a lot of other places, however...

[bigbyrd]

Torrie:
I to am a real estate agent currently licensed in Washington State. I grew up in Gooding Idaho and currently and for the past five years spend one week a month in Idaho. I have a number of family members in the area some employed by companies and some self employed. When you see the spec buying of farm land in Nampa for instance with no infrastructure to support the developmnet of this land it only makes sense that Idahoans were living off of the good fortune of other real estate markets i.e. Southern California.
Continual construction of new homes without the economic infrastructure to support the buyers of those homes will always eventually reach saturation and may take years to catch up.

[Torrie]

I understand your point of view, but you're looking at one area of the Boise-Metro, Nampa. If you look at my post above I said "parts of Boise-Metro have fared better" not all of Boise Metro. Since you are licensed in Washington and not Idaho you would not have access to our MLS to be able to track our current market conditions.

[bigbyrd]

Originally Posted by Torrie

I understand your point of view, but you're looking at one area of the Boise-Metro, Nampa. If you look at my post above I said "parts of Boise-Metro have fared better" not all of Boise Metro. Since you are licensed in Washington and not Idaho you would not have access to our MLS to be able to track our current market conditions.

Thanks for pointing that out. I enjoy reading in this forum because it gives me perspective from the seller side as well as the agent side. It would be nice to see buyers views in this area as well. Personally I look at the real estate market on the whole taking a correction very similar to what the Stock Market does when there is a buying frenzy. Real estate is like the weather it goes in cycles.

[Twinkle]

Well, as a prospective buyer, I can give you my two cents I've been watching things for months now and when I first started, my price range (within Boise or Eagle) got me something that A) looked like it was in the ghetto B) was 600 sq ft C) was a falling down ramshackle or D) all of the above!

Now? Not so much. Every day things in my price range improve. Every day the houses get nicer, the square footage gets bigger, prices go lower and the location improves. Whereas a few months ago things looked sort of bleak (or at least they weren't rosy for me and what I could buy), now it's looking like I will have a good choice of decent homes in areas that I want to live.

On the one hand I fully believe that Boise is more protected from what's going on in places like CA and AZ etc, and I don't think it will ever see that kind of situation. On the other hand, I don't think things are as great as some keep shouting from the rooftops. It's only my opinion, but I still believe that there are a lot of people in denial (even in Boise) about the reality of what is happening in this country right now. When I look at Boise real estate ads right now and they yell "15k under appraisal or even 30k under appraisal." etc. I see people that still don't realize that may not matter. All that matters is what the market will bear and what someone will pay. I've read comments where people are upset that their homes aren't selling and they talk about how they can't possibly sell for less because then they would have to bring money to the closing table or they would be "upside down" etc.

To that I just want to say WELCOME TO THE NEW WORLD OF REAL ESTATE! I don't say that to be snarky...I only say it because that is the reality in MANY MANY places around the country and just because Boise is Boise, it doesn't mean Boise is immune.

All I know is that to me, the listings don't lie. If things were moving as briskly as some say and things are as great as some say, then I highly doubt that my price range would be seeing the improvements it is. If anything, it would just be getting worse. But to me, it's just getting better.

Who knows how long it will last? And honestly, I don't things in my range can go too much lower, though even now I'm surprised. I could be surprised again. What I do know is that I would rather buy after prices have ticked up a few percentages rather than as they're still going down. And I truly believe things are still headed down, if only a little bit more. When it comes to the bottom line, I just want the best deal I can find like everyone else.