Boise-Metro Housing Market (Idaho Falls, Meridian, Eagle: sales, real estate, loan)

[Torrie]

For those of you interested in the housing market here, it looks like we are close to the bottom. I touched on this a little bit in the thread "Idaho Falls has glut of high priced homes" but not everyone might read that particular thread so I though I'd start this in the Boise section.

I have a great chart that shows the supply and demand characteristics of the Treasure Valley. It demonstrates the pattern in the market from 2005 to end of October 07. Clearly you can see on this chart that we are on the brink of the market making a change. I would post it on here, but the author of this chart is unknown so if you're interested in looking at it, I'd be happy to email it to you. Just send me a direct message with your email address and I will forward it on.

An article was just written on this very topic yesterday where Mark Leibowitz, chief executive of Ada County Association of Realtors discusses the the decline of inventory in the Treasure Valley. As most of you know, when your supply decreases and your demand increases your market begins to change to a sellers market.

Though you are constantly hearing how bad the market is, don't let the information fool you. Boise-Metro has fared better than most markets in the nation and will likely recover sooner. For those of you looking at this area to relocate to, now is the time for the best deals if you want a rock bottom price. As we head into the Spring and inventory continues to decline you will most likely begin to see a change in the pricing. Not trying to scare anyone, but just want you to be informed. There's a lot of information out there and it can be very confusing to someone who lives outside the area.

http://www.idahostatesman.com/busine...ry/236753.html

[Syringaloid]

Thanks for the post Torrie. Is it true that the values are still going up despite the slower sales? How are the values in downtown and the northend doing? Especially with the downtown living boom?

[Torrie]

Right now when I pull stats for Jan07 to present, MLS shows that Ada county prices of existing homes have increased 11.81%. For those of you not familiar with the area, Ada county includes, Boise, Garden City, Eagle, Meridian, Kuna and Star. With that being said, also know that different areas of Ada County have done better than others.

For example, area 200, NE Boise finished the year up 206.08%(we're still talking existing homes from Jan07-present), where N Boise, area 100 ended up with -9.75%. Huge difference. Don't dispair if you live in N Boise because one sale can change everything just like what most likely happened in area 200. The sale of an upper end home can really make a difference in the totals.

You can see how confusing reading statistics can be. When buying or selling a home, it's important that your agent is aware of what's going on in the area you are working so you can make smart choices.

If looking for the deals; something to consider would be to look at the areas that are down the most- that very well could be where the buys are.

Keep in mind that stats can change frequently and a couple of sales can change everything. Hope that answers your question.

[Torrie]

Here's a new article, dated Jan 14, 2008 in regards to the housing market. Basically it discusses the continual decline in the inventory of homes for the Treasure Valley market. As mentioned above earlier, and this article confirms, a continual decline in inventory could very well turn our market back into a sellers market.

Insiders hopeful as housing inventory falls | News Updates | Idaho Statesman

[Anchorless]

I find the comments to that article more interesting than the article itself.

It very much IS NOT a seller's market in most of the Treasure Valley right now. Whether or not that will change any time soon is anyone's guess.

Good time to buy, though.

[Torrie]

Originally Posted by Anchorless

I find the comments to that article more interesting than the article itself.

It very much IS NOT a seller's market in most of the Treasure Valley right now. Whether or not that will change any time soon is anyone's guess.

Good time to buy, though.

Read the article and my comments again, no one said it was currently a seller's market.

What's being said, is if the inventory continues to slip as it has been doing over the past three months it can very well turn back into a seller's market. This is very evident in new construction as the builders have pretty much stopped building. How do I know that? Our company subscribes to a weekly publication of building permits. In a nutshell we can see who's building and who's not, whether it's residential, commercial, or owner builders. Currently right now in Ada County there's approximately a 4.5 month supply of homes in new construction (not existing homes). That is not a lot and could easily diminish in a short period of time. Add on the fact that it can take approximately 120 days to build a home and you can see how quickly demand can overtake the supply.

[Anchorless]

Originally Posted by Torrie

Read the article and my comments again, no one said it was currently a seller's market.

So where did I say you (or anyone else) said that?

Originally Posted by Torrie

What's being said, is if the inventory continues to slip as it has been doing over the past three months it can very well turn back into a seller's market. This is very evident in new construction as the builders have pretty much stopped building. How do I know that? Our company subscribes to a weekly publication of building permits. In a nutshell we can see who's building and who's not, whether it's residential, commercial, or owner builders. Currently right now in Ada County there's approximately a 4.5 month supply of homes in new construction (not existing homes). That is not a lot and could easily diminish in a short period of time. Add on the fact that it can take approximately 120 days to build a home and you can see how quickly demand can overtake the supply.

I mentioned the comments section because the ongoing discussion between what the market is or is not is fascinating. It's also interesting to see the public call to question these recurring news reports about how our market isn't so bad, is on the rise, and/or will recover soon, as well as suggesting the problem a good deal of realtors have in presenting their statistics.

I wasn't eliciting an opinion either way - I simply urged people to read the comments to see how the public is reacting to this sort of quote/unquote fluff piece that the Statesman is typically renowned for reporting.

I don't have much to weigh in personally, other than I ABSOLUTELY KNOW that in my neighborhood it is most certainly not a seller's market, nor will it be for some time.

[Torrie]

Originally Posted by Anchorless

It very much IS NOT a seller's market in most of the Treasure Valley right now.

Uh, Right above is where you said it, bold and in caps.

Well duh! I think everyone knows that. No one said that is was a seller's market, so not sure why you need to point that out or maybe you just need to be heard. It makes it sound like you're implying that we think the current market is a seller's market.

If you follow the stats in MLS you can very easily see what's going on and where it can lead, it's the closest tool we have to a crystal ball. It's an indicator as to "where the market could be going" notice I didn't say is going? In MLS you can follow trends and see similar patterns when comparing today's market to past markets And yes I did read some of those comments, I find it amusing in many of those comments that about 99.9 percent don't know what they're talking about or have any access to a lot of the materials that agents do. Some of them probably don't even own a home, but feel compelled to comment on a topic they know very little about. So to me it's jibberish talk and nothing more.

So if you know something about the law of supply and demand that we don't, I'd sure like to hear about it. There's no "spinning" of the statistics there.

I beg to differ on your comment about the Idaho Statesman below

Originally Posted by Anchorless

"this sort of quote/unquote fluff piece that the Statesman is typically renowned for reporting."

Typically it's the other way around. They spend more time focusing on the gloom and doom because of it's shock value rather than "fluff" pieces, especially when it comes to real estate topics as of recent.

[Lacerta]

I'm just glad to see a bit of positive reporting on the housing market. The media has waaay too much control of the economy. It causes changes by the approach it takes, rather than just reporting. When every article you see is all about how it's a horrible time to be a seller, and financial experts are saying not to buy a house this year....... guess what? It will thus become a horrible time to be a seller because no one is buying the houses.

The media took what was a bad situation and made it a thousand times worse. The market slumps a little, the media reports on it, so the market slumps more, and the media is totally doom and gloom, and the cycle goes on and on. The market in Boise hasn't been nearly as bad as it is being made to seem. How about reporting on what a good time it is to start negotiatiating, since many sellers are much more open to that right now?

Sure, its not a great time to be a seller right now, but its a really good to be a buyer.

As for the comments on the Statesman's site, I read them for the entertainment value, and to see what people are thinking, but with the caveat that just because people think it, doesn't mean it is the truth.

I will say that the majority of the people I've talked to in the last 30 days who are in the building and/or real estate industry agree that the last few weeks have been busier all around.

[Torrie]

Originally Posted by Lacerta

I'm just glad to see a bit of positive reporting on the housing market. The media has waaay too much control of the economy. It causes changes by the approach it takes, rather than just reporting. When every article you see is all about how it's a horrible time to be a seller, and financial experts are saying not to buy a house this year....... guess what? It will thus become a horrible time to be a seller because no one is buying the houses.

The media took what was a bad situation and made it a thousand times worse. The market slumps a little, the media reports on it, so the market slumps more, and the media is totally doom and gloom, and the cycle goes on and on. The market in Boise hasn't been nearly as bad as it is being made to seem. How about reporting on what a good time it is to start negotiatiating, since many sellers are much more open to that right now?

Sure, its not a great time to be a seller right now, but its a really good to be a buyer.

As for the comments on the Statesman's site, I read them for the entertainment value, and to see what people are thinking, but with the caveat that just because people think it, doesn't mean it is the truth.

I will say that the majority of the people I've talked to in the last 30 days who are in the building and/or real estate industry agree that the last few weeks have been busier all around.

I sooo agree with what you're saying! It's like they (the media) instill panic in people. I'm so tired of hearing how we're going have a recession. Every day it's a different angle on how we're headed towards a recession, then it's..maybe we're all ready in a recession. It's like they get the public so panicked into believing it that they create the very thing to happen.

It's the same thing they did with the housing market. Boise's market fared so much better than other states such as Michigan, Florida, California, and Arizona. But when you'd watched the news you'd swear that the housing market here was just as bad as the rest of the country.

You're right, it's a dynamite time to be buying. Interest rates were at 5 3/8% today! Since 2001, rates have been under 7%! There use to be a time when rates were in the double digits. How quickly that's been forgotten. Now imagine if you could negotiate a 2-1 buydown loan with the rates as low as they are... now that make's it even more exciting!