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Interesting considering I recall Austin being labeled the most overvalued not that long ago. Really tells you how steep of a trajectory the Boise area has moved.
There likely won't be as many underwater when the next bust happens but you gotta figure there's going to be a sizable correction in Boise simply going by how fast prices have moved the past few years or so. The Evergrande situation in China is something to pay attention to. And their debt crisis is multiples larger than Lehman in 2008. I wonder how many US pension/retirement accounts are invested in Chinese real estate and other assets.
Remote work cities like Boise will be vulnerable whether we want to accept it or not. It sucks for the first time homebuyers who really needed to secure a house. Not so much for those of us who simply wanted to relocate or upgrade. Gotta live with the choice and ride the roller coaster.
Hi, Diceyhot...
Everything you mentioned is logical and reasonable, but I and very unsure that any of it may come to pass.
I spent most of my life living the the mid to late 20th century, and throughout that time period, the United States expanded in everything for a time period and then contracted for a corresponding length of time.
More or less equally, but the expansion was always a little more than the contraction. Things never shrunk down to the same size they were in 1950.
It had all begun much smaller in 1940. World War II vastly increased everything at enormous cost of everything. By 1950, we were Big America. Once we were big, we have stayed big, but we haven't gotten much bigger.
I'm not sure things are still that way.
I tend to think real estate prices will keep on climbing all over Idaho (and other states) for a very long time. At the same time, real estate in the big states like California, New York, and Illinois will go flat and then start to decline. Slowly.
Idaho is one of several states that's still essentially empty. The Dakotas, Montana, and Wyoming are some of the others.
They're all big territory that can hold a lot more people than they're holding now. Lots of Americans see emptiness as an opportunity.
Once there are enough people in a place, it isn't remote anymore. The place's size is large enough to generate it's own economy until it fills up with people.
Then, once filled up, some folks will begin looking for the opportunities in the next empty place. Other folks will find plenty of opportunity right there, lying at their feet.
Boise is there now, as I see it. The Treasure Valley still has a lot of room to grow, so it will grow. Other places in Idaho will keep growing along. When growth slows in Boise, some other city here will take up that slack and grow.
As growth increases, our remoteness decreases. Opportunity increases with either.
Personally, I tend to think Idaho is going to go boom boom boom until all the folks who want to move here are either here or have begun looking at another state.
Boise boom days began when Boise had high paying jobs, like HP, Micron, and others. Put in the factor of low rent and low house prices, it was a win win win scenario place to locate.
That's all gone.
Example: Your making $125,000 on say Colorado, and your house price is $500, 000 vs., your making $75,000 in Boise for the same $500, 000 house. What is more of a value?
Boise boom days began when Boise had high paying jobs, like HP, Micron, and others. Put in the factor of low rent and low house prices, it was a win win win scenario place to locate.
That's all gone.
Example: Your making $125,000 on say Colorado, and your house price is $500, 000 vs., your making $75,000 in Boise for the same $500, 000 house. What is more of a value?
That's it you want to live in Colorado...ug. I will stick with Boise.
Hi, Diceyhot...
Everything you mentioned is logical and reasonable, but I and very unsure that any of it may come to pass.
I spent most of my life living the the mid to late 20th century, and throughout that time period, the United States expanded in everything for a time period and then contracted for a corresponding length of time.
More or less equally, but the expansion was always a little more than the contraction. Things never shrunk down to the same size they were in 1950.
It had all begun much smaller in 1940. World War II vastly increased everything at enormous cost of everything. By 1950, we were Big America. Once we were big, we have stayed big, but we haven't gotten much bigger.
I'm not sure things are still that way.
I tend to think real estate prices will keep on climbing all over Idaho (and other states) for a very long time. At the same time, real estate in the big states like California, New York, and Illinois will go flat and then start to decline. Slowly.
Idaho is one of several states that's still essentially empty. The Dakotas, Montana, and Wyoming are some of the others.
They're all big territory that can hold a lot more people than they're holding now. Lots of Americans see emptiness as an opportunity.
Once there are enough people in a place, it isn't remote anymore. The place's size is large enough to generate it's own economy until it fills up with people.
Then, once filled up, some folks will begin looking for the opportunities in the next empty place. Other folks will find plenty of opportunity right there, lying at their feet.
Boise is there now, as I see it. The Treasure Valley still has a lot of room to grow, so it will grow. Other places in Idaho will keep growing along. When growth slows in Boise, some other city here will take up that slack and grow.
As growth increases, our remoteness decreases. Opportunity increases with either.
Personally, I tend to think Idaho is going to go boom boom boom until all the folks who want to move here are either here or have begun looking at another state.
I have family in about 8 States and all of them are seeing housing going up, even without CA transplants, though that is common. Plus foreign buyers, rich buying 2nd or 3rd homes and investors buying for rentals to those who cannot afford the down payment and associated costs now.
When we moved from Meridian in late 2008 our home value was about $97k less than what we paid for it in 2007 (work relocation both times). I looked at the Zillow estimate recently and it was $300k more than what we had paid for the house in 2007. Crazy times in the Treasure Valley for sure!
I just got a rep point with a comment about my previous post. It said:
I think you're right about nearly empty="let's fill it up." And then: on to the next "nearly empty."
And I completely agree with that comment. For most of my life as an Idaho native, Idaho was essentially an empty state. But so was Montana, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, Wyoming, and 2/3 of Oregon and Washington.
Vail once had low home prices and few jobs. Jackson Hole was the same, even though it had millions of tourists passing through in the summers. The Paradise Valley in Montana was next to deserted. Denver was an old dying city that was rotting at the core.
Once the flood stops, usually after the influencers have already moved on to their latest little piece of paradise, a lot of their followers leave too. The Hot Spot becomes hot due to social factors, not economics.
The other thing that happens in the Hot Spot is another, a different, social factor. The first followers are always those who spread the word that this new place is the new Hot Spot. Those folowers move in quickly, but they also leave just as fast, as following the rich around is what they do.
The word they spread always moves around through the country slower, so about the time the first followers are leaving, they are passing the net wave, who are just arriving.
The Hot Spot ain't so hot anymore, but it stays hot enough to churn and churn for years to come. I saw that whole thing happen in Bozeman over the course of a decade, and now, 20 years later, Bozeman is still churning. Home prices are still rising, jobs are still hard to find and underpaying, but late-comers are still moving in just as much as folks are leaving.
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