Question for all the Real Estate Agents... (Boise: bank owned, real estate market)

[boiseguy]

What are your feelings about the boise market after this 8000 dollar stimulus program expires? Do you feel that the market will be rebounded enough? Seems there's lots of first time buyers out there as well as anyone who qualifies for this credit. What happens when it's gone? and the market is forced to rely on people who have down money? I worry that housing prices could drop more (how much I don't know) after the frenzy of tax credit seekers are gone...

What are your opinions? And I mean, REAL opinions and concerns? Is the boise market still a bit over inflated for the wages around here?
Any feedback would be greatly appreciated

Thanks!

[Torrie]

What a great question! First time home buyers definitely are in the drivers seat.....and seem to be the most common buyer right now. My concern is the job market....if people aren't working they're not going to be buying houses regardless of the tax credit. I've heard talk that they're going to extend the tax credit into 2010, but nothing concrete as of yet. I can tell you our company, Coldwell Banker and the National Association of Realtors have been working on this tax credit to be both extended and made available to all buyers.

There's going to be another slew of bank owned and foreclosed homes hitting the market, so my guess is, prices will continue to soften. I think you're several years out before you see the likes of any large increases in the value of your home. If we get some big hitters in town that generate good paying jobs, that might create somewhat of an upswing in the market, but again if credit isn't made available we will continue to have problems. JMO.......a crystal ball would be nice right about now,,lol

[boiseguy]

Originally Posted by Torrie

What a great question! First time home buyers definitely are in the drivers seat.....and seem to be the most common buyer right now. My concern is the job market....if people aren't working they're not going to be buying houses regardless of the tax credit. I've heard talk that they're going to extend the tax credit into 2010, but nothing concrete as of yet. I can tell you our company, Coldwell Banker and the National Association of Realtors have been working on this tax credit to be both extended and made available to all buyers.

There's going to be another slew of bank owned and foreclosed homes hitting the market, so my guess is, prices will continue to soften. I think you're several years out before you see the likes of any large increases in the value of your home. If we get some big hitters in town that generate good paying jobs, that might create somewhat of an upswing in the market, but again if credit isn't made available we will continue to have problems. JMO.......a crystal ball would be nice right about now,,lol

great analysis... thanks... I've also wondered if the governement will extend this credit for another year or two.. or somehow incorporate a perminent tax credit structure to buying a house... I just worry that things are too soft right now.. and especially having the tax credit end in the winter months is not a good idea...
I've heard that there's a quite a few large companies considering relocating to the treasure valley.. which ones they are I'm not sure, but I think you're right that high paying jobs are the only thing thats going to get this market going again...

[boisefan88]

Originally Posted by boiseguy

I've heard that there's a quite a few large companies considering relocating to the treasure valley.. which ones they are I'm not sure, but I think you're right that high paying jobs are the only thing thats going to get this market going again...

Lack of high paying jobs has always been an issue for Boise, and won't likely change soon.

I mean, people have been forecasting Boise as the next "hot spot" for business growth since the dark days in the mid '80s, when timber, agriculture, and manufacturing jobs were being replaced by white collar, service sector, and tech jobs.

These jobs admittedly changed the demographics of Boise and made it more "professional," but did little to boost the wage scales. Instead, it invited a certain class of refugees - those who could afford to take a pay cut to move here - as well as allowing businesses to pay lower wages because the cost of living was so much cheaper than the west coast places they fled.

I do see Boise being a leader (of sorts) in certain technical and alternative energy sectors, but I don't see significant wage increases coming with those jobs.

Instead, it'll be more of the same - the decent career level jobs will be retained by those who have them, and the open jobs snapped up by insiders (as it's always been) or overqualified quasi-retired refugees. Other jobs will still be call centers, retail, service sector, manufacturing, and food-industry jobs.

The double edged sword is the jobs related to development - construction, development, realtors, mortgage officers, etc., but at the cost of inviting more sprawl and reckless development.

One thing I won't deny - Boise is a nice location for budding entrepreneurs.

[aaroncatt]

Since markets are local, you have to consider local factors that affect the market.

1. Jobs
2. Interest Rates
3. Supply or Inventory of Homes
4. Consumer Confidence
5. Personal Life Changes (Marriage/Divorce, Death, Children)

I think that Torrie posted a very good comment about the market and I don't have anything that I would disagree with.

Only to add, I would say that we need to continue to gobble up supply, period. If we can outpace newly listed homes coming onto the market with buyers buying them, we stand a chance at seeing a bit of settlement in the market.

People are going to continue to buy and sell for whatever personal reasons they have, but without some sustainable jobs, the market will not come back to previous years (probably a good thing) rather it will settle into a more affordable situation.

During the boom, most of the unemployment stats we were posting in Idaho were blue collar construction jobs that vanished at the sight of a down real estate market. In retrospect, I think that the low unemployment numbers from 2004-2007 were misrepresented.

As for the Housing Tax Credit, its working now, but it's not going to fix things. I bet it will be extended but not until we get close to the current deadline.

[HDL]

Good post and very accurate ! Nice to see that for a change .

Originally Posted by aaroncatt

Since markets are local, you have to consider local factors that affect the market.

1. Jobs
2. Interest Rates
3. Supply or Inventory of Homes
4. Consumer Confidence
5. Personal Life Changes (Marriage/Divorce, Death, Children)

I think that Torrie posted a very good comment about the market and I don't have anything that I would disagree with.

Only to add, I would say that we need to continue to gobble up supply, period. If we can outpace newly listed homes coming onto the market with buyers buying them, we stand a chance at seeing a bit of settlement in the market.

People are going to continue to buy and sell for whatever personal reasons they have, but without some sustainable jobs, the market will not come back to previous years (probably a good thing) rather it will settle into a more affordable situation.

During the boom, most of the unemployment stats we were posting in Idaho were blue collar construction jobs that vanished at the sight of a down real estate market. In retrospect, I think that the low unemployment numbers from 2004-2007 were misrepresented.

As for the Housing Tax Credit, its working now, but it's not going to fix things. I bet it will be extended but not until we get close to the current deadline.

[aaroncatt]

Thanks!

I try to be objective as well as educated.