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Old 08-10-2019, 04:58 AM
 
714 posts, read 207,962 times
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With Boston at 700k right now, and the City entering a San Francisco style period of job growth, I'm seeing at least 800k for the 2030 census.
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Old 08-10-2019, 07:47 AM
 
Location: Boston
2,573 posts, read 1,419,799 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KoNgFooCj View Post
With Boston at 700k right now, and the City entering a San Francisco style period of job growth, I'm seeing at least 800k for the 2030 census.
Thereís not a bulge of millennials anymore to move into cities. If we had another decade with this type of growth we would be at 790-800k by 2030 but that doubtful just like NYC growth slowed after 2015 our growth started to slow in city proper around 2016. We went from adding 9-11k a year from 2010-2015 to about 6-7k the past couple years. 760 is likely correct- the wages donít match the cost of housing-luxury housing isnít being filled and regular housing is too much in demand.

During the time the market is correcting itself there will be more of a slowdown. Weíre not entering SF job growth we are/were already in it.
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Old 08-10-2019, 07:50 AM
 
Location: Boston, MA
8,862 posts, read 7,807,944 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade View Post
Thereís not a bulge of millennials anymore to move into cities. If we had another decade with this type of growth we would be at 790-800k by 2030 but that doubtful just like NYC growth slowed after 2015 our growth started to slow in city proper around 2016. We went from adding 9-11k a year from 2010-2015 to about 6-7k the past couple years. 760 is likely correct- the wages donít match the cost of housing-luxury housing isnít being filled and regular housing is too much in demand.

During the time the market is correcting itself there will be more of a slowdown. Weíre not entering SF job growth we are/were already in it.
about to see a millennial exodus in the next 5-10 years imo, nationwide.
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Old 08-10-2019, 08:00 AM
 
Location: Boston
2,573 posts, read 1,419,799 times
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Boston growth year over years (estimates)

2010->2011: +13.5k

2011->2012: + 12.5k

2012->2013: + 10k

2013->2014: + 10k

2014->2015: + 10k

2015->2016: + 10k

2016->2017: + 8k

2017->2018: + 6k

2018 population: 694.6k

Most recent, BPDA 2020 projected population: 701k ( http://www.bostonplans.org/getattach...0-c2b44d62e175)

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/...prodType=table

So Boston proper is growing half as fast as it was to start the decade. With rising housing costs, transit issues and aging millennials I doubt there’s gonna be a another boom in growth in the 2020s.

Last edited by BostonBornMassMade; 08-10-2019 at 08:22 AM..
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Old 08-10-2019, 03:17 PM
 
Location: Greater Boston (Formerly Orlando and New York)
646 posts, read 235,506 times
Reputation: 635
Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade View Post
Boston growth year over years (estimates)

2010->2011: +13.5k

2011->2012: + 12.5k

2012->2013: + 10k

2013->2014: + 10k

2014->2015: + 10k

2015->2016: + 10k

2016->2017: + 8k

2017->2018: + 6k

2018 population: 694.6k

Most recent, BPDA 2020 projected population: 701k ( http://www.bostonplans.org/getattach...0-c2b44d62e175)

https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/...prodType=table

So Boston proper is growing half as fast as it was to start the decade. With rising housing costs, transit issues and aging millennials I doubt thereís gonna be a another boom in growth in the 2020s.
I agree with you here. Theres a noticeable drop in unit construction through the next two years too. THis will also curb Boston's population growth rate down a little more. Howver, it seems towns like Quincy, Revere, Everett, Framingham, Malden and Lynn are seeing increasing rate of growth that might offset Boston's shrinking growth rate. Seems to be whats happening.

But looking at the BPDA .. my god, theres a lot less through thee pipelines coming in the next few years as there was in 2017 or 2015 where we saw Bulfinch, Garden Towers, Garden Garage, Echelon Seaport, Parcel K and some of those i-90/South End projects.
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Old 08-10-2019, 04:22 PM
 
Location: Boston
2,573 posts, read 1,419,799 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by masssachoicetts View Post
I agree with you here. Theres a noticeable drop in unit construction through the next two years too. THis will also curb Boston's population growth rate down a little more. Howver, it seems towns like Quincy, Revere, Everett, Framingham, Malden and Lynn are seeing increasing rate of growth that might offset Boston's shrinking growth rate. Seems to be whats happening.

But looking at the BPDA .. my god, theres a lot less through thee pipelines coming in the next few years as there was in 2017 or 2015 where we saw Bulfinch, Garden Towers, Garden Garage, Echelon Seaport, Parcel K and some of those i-90/South End projects.
I think itís really just that Bostonís become that expensive and the transit is that bad. I donít think itís necessarily more complex than that. Developers are realizing they canít fill the luxury units and its still not feasible to build workforce housing. Jobs will definitely still move here for a few years though.
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Old 08-11-2019, 11:29 AM
 
Location: Greater Boston (Formerly Orlando and New York)
646 posts, read 235,506 times
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Other than changing zoning, I dont see many solutions to lower prices for developers.... just building more isnt going to help, because most of these units are luxury/unaffordable.

Hopefully the $18 billion by 2030 in T fixes will help the T a little bit.
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Old 08-13-2019, 08:07 AM
 
Location: Somerville, MA
8,118 posts, read 16,179,688 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by masssachoicetts View Post
Other than changing zoning, I dont see many solutions to lower prices for developers.... just building more isnt going to help, because most of these units are luxury/unaffordable.

Hopefully the $18 billion by 2030 in T fixes will help the T a little bit.
It's going to have to be the T. I think that's what everyone is starting to realize (finally). Most areas on rapid transit are already close to cost prohibitive, our highways can't/won't accommodate much growth in capacity, even with billions of dollars in investment. The only to effectively provide housing for the middle class in metro Boston is through T improvements. Specifically, strategic rapid transit improvements/ extensions (Blue Line to Lynn, conversion of the Fairmount line to rapid transit, etc,) and through commuter rail improvements like electrification of the system, the N/S link, fixing the bottleneck on the Old Colony Line, and adding capacity at S. Station, etc. If you get something approaching decent frequencies on commuter rail, places like Brockton, Lawrence, Lowell, etc. become much more attractive for commuters as they have existing reasonably priced housing and they'll have the transit connectivity to make for sustainable commutes for the average person.

I also think the city needs to do better about making micromobility/last-mile/biking more accessible/safe. Bikes and e-bikes along with E-scooters, skakeboards, unicycles, and everything in that universe are becoming more and more popular. With a functional network of bike paths/lanes, you'll encourage more people to use these things and you'll also get them off the sidewalks. They're really making previously far-flung neighborhoods much more feasible for people.
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Old 08-13-2019, 08:08 AM
 
Location: Boston
2,573 posts, read 1,419,799 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lrfox View Post
It's going to have to be the T. I think that's what everyone is starting to realize (finally). Most areas on rapid transit are already close to cost prohibitive, our highways can't/won't accommodate much growth in capacity, even with billions of dollars in investment. The only to effectively provide housing for the middle class in metro Boston is through T improvements. Specifically, strategic rapid transit improvements/ extensions (Blue Line to Lynn, conversion of the Fairmount line to rapid transit, etc,) and through commuter rail improvements like electrification of the system, the N/S link, fixing the bottleneck on the Old Colony Line, and adding capacity at S. Station, etc. If you get something approaching decent frequencies on commuter rail, places like Brockton, Lawrence, Lowell, etc. become much more attractive for commuters as they have existing reasonably priced housing and they'll have the transit connectivity to make for sustainable commutes for the average person.

I also think the city needs to do better about making micromobility/last-mile/biking more accessible/safe. Bikes and e-bikes along with E-scooters, skakeboards, unicycles, and everything in that universe are becoming more and more popular. With a functional network of bike paths/lanes, you'll encourage more people to use these things and you'll also get them off the sidewalks. They're really making previously far-flung neighborhoods much more feasible for people.
e scooters would help a great deal. They're extremely helpful to me here in Baltimore. People have complained about broken ones but honestly after 6 month i dont even notice, they certainly dont ugly up the city or get in my way in the slightest. No ones been hit by a car and i think there only been a dozen or so injuries in the year they've been here-which is surprisingly few considering how often people get hurt on bikes.. Mostly I see people use them to go to work or go to the orioles game. That being said BMore is much less congested and has terrible public transit options-so its more necessary here.

But ultimately its not up to the city-its the state that needs to change..as I've said for years you here the state must build in a way that greater Boston can approach more North jersey like levels of density. Not be AS dense-that is not necessary- were not bedroom community for NYC, but MA should work towards getting there.

But once people get used to sitting on a landmine of cash its hard to convince them to slow down the goldrush.
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Old 08-13-2019, 08:16 AM
 
Location: Somerville, MA
8,118 posts, read 16,179,688 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BostonBornMassMade View Post
e scooters would help a great deal. They're extremely helpful to me here in Baltimore. But ultimately its not up to the city-its the state that needs to change.
True, me too. I own one and use it daily, it's easier than a bike as it's far, far more convenient to store/transport. I'm also not drip sweating walking in the office. The state needs to finish changing the rules, but it's not as if Boston couldn't do anything now. They already don't enforce the technical illegality of them. Brookline has even launched a pilot with Bird/Lime and I think another and generally it's been successful (companies are scrambling to add more scooters to meet demand), but many of the issues with them (particularly where people are leaving the rentals, and people riding on the sidewalks) would be solved by better infrastructure.
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