Housing Prices: What's Going on? (Boston, Brockton: sales, real estate market, foreclosures)

[NH2008]

Although we've been talking about moving to NH for ages, it now looks like we may move to the Boston suburbs for more career opportunities. (Given the long hours DH works, a long commute is not an option.) For better or worse, everything I've read indicates that housing prices in Boston still have a long way to fall. But...they're not budging. Based on the info I'm seeing, there's an impasse; houses are sitting longer as sellers refuse to lower prices and buyers refuse to overpay when they expect prices to drop. So what's going on? Are prices going to drop or what? And when?

We've been renting forever on the West Coast and I'm sooo eager to finally settle down in a home of our own!

We're considering Needham, Newton Center, Sherborn, Dover, Lexington, Concord, Winchester and perhaps Wellesley or Andover.

I realize no one KNOWS what's going to happen, but what's your guess?

[ChunkyMonkey]

I don't think you'll see Boston prices fall much except maybe in the far flung suburbs. There was a article I read somewhere that towns close to major vibrant cities will not see much falling prices. In fact, prices will start to increase. The reason is with the high gas price, those that opted for far flung suburbs are having a hard time selling their homes.

Boston housing is relatively stable, there wasn't a huge building boom like in the Sunbelt so you won't see the building bust like other cities. However, that doesn't mean you can't find a deal. Foreclosures have risen quite a bit so you might find some great houses that way.

[NH2008]

I do agree that exurbs get hit worse, but a lot of economists are saying that even the closer suburbs are still really over-valued. (Boston Bubble - Boston Real Estate Market Analysis) It's still much cheaper to rent than to buy and there's a lot just sitting on the market....

[scarletfire]

There's a recent Boston Magazine article that talks about how far prices have fallen in Massachusetts towns. I think it might have been the April issue. You can probably find it online. I think a lot of people who are selling now are more reasonable than they were a year ago about prices.

[NH2008]

Thanks! I will check it out. Our realtor said to ignore asking prices and only look at "solds" since I guess a lot of people aren't lowering asking prices but are willing to accept less...ugh, so frustrating!

[CaseyB]

You might also want to look at the City-Data homepage. Click on Massachusetts, then the city or town and there will be a graph of recent home sales and prices, showing upward or downward trends. You'll be surprised when you check certain areas.

[smarty]

Just want to add price drop also depends on the segment. I see the bigger drop at the over $1million range... as many sat for a long time... they used to ask for $1.2 and now many are asking for $990K.

The good towns close by Boston like Newton, Wellesley has dipped only a little. Many are taking the opportunity to move into those "prefer" towns.

[ctrres]

If Lawrence and Brockton predictably are leading the trend, well, Dorchester is getting flattened by foreclosure actions, and a lot of that is going to show up in RE prices, real soon. Last I checked the latter was served by 2 Red Lines, an Orange Line nearby, plus a few bus routes. You could walk to downtown Boston in an hour.

Roslindale was in the news just yesterday as having some modest slowdown issues. I can't help but feel that will start showing up in RE. That neighborhood is served by MBTA Commuter routes and bus.

Both neighborhoods are in Boston.

A few community gardens in Somerville aren't going to satisfy the agrarian Kunstlerian hunger of 6 million people who can't afford gasoline, and whose jobs were outsourced halfway around the world. Nobody's going to starve, but there's going to be foreclosures and cheaper homes. Those who live in town but commute to 495 may have to move to there if the commute becomes an issue for their still-available jobs--those jobs won't necessarily move to the Financial District. Others in the Hub will otherwise lose their employment (and their homes to consequent foreclosure). People employed or not, foreclosed upon or not, in outlying cities just stop driving so much. They'll want to live--or squat as the case may be--where the housing is far cheaper still, than the declining values closer into the "Hub."

Sell-homes-to-each-other-for-profit doesn't an economy make. Banks are shutting down student loans as a result of the deflationary-spiral initiated credit crunch. College endowments will take hits as values come down on RE bequeathed to them, and stores which pay rent to them go out of business for lack of customers with money. 6 workers recently lost their jobs in Rozzie when the bakery couldn't afford the state-ordered healthcare payments (also known as corporate welfare transfers to MA insurers and hospitals for private gain). I would suppose their private health insurance policies will now be picked up by other MA citizens. Which may accelerate with other job losses. (One wonders if the policies cover "grief counseling" over lost jobs.)

[NH2008]

Thanks, all. Smarty, your point about "aspirational" towns makes a lot of sense. Food for thought. I appreciate it.

[skytrekker]

A front page article in the Globe this morning saying that housing prices across the state fell 11% in March! Local home prices slide in March - Daily Business Update - The Boston Globe