Boulder County Housing Forecast - Declining Market? (Denver, Longmont: days on market, short sale)

[Althea]

I've been to all my favorite places around Colorado and New Mexico in the past 4 months and found out I really wanted to stay around the Front Range, close to Boulder and Denver, but in the mountains. I was a homeowner in Nederland in the early 90's but moved to WA when my dad got very ill. 13 years later I finally made it back to the Boulder area, and have been looking at real estate ever since I moved back here 6 months ago. Real estate in and around Boulder is much, much higher than when I was here last and I had all but given up on the notion of staying until I found a short sale listing on Sunday.

The place is fantastic, it is on acreage and is perfect for me. It is everything I've always wanted and more. The seller accepted my offer (there were multiple offers) and the offer was sent into the bank for acceptance.

No worries. I can wait for the response. The property is worth waiting for.

But then the bad news.

My lender said lending guidelines have changed since the last offer I put in on a house (February 2008) and now my stated income program is being discontinued..even though my down payment is a whopping 60% of the purchase price! I have until May 2nd to close on the house.

I am an optimist, but even I know that trying to get a short sale to close in that timeframe is next to impossible, even though the seller and the bank have been working together for resolution.

Believe me, I understand how sketchy loans have contributed to the whole mortgage mess, so I am not crying oh "poor me." But the stated income loan is the only way I can go right now until my business is up and running. In fact, because I freelance and have been for years, the only loans I have gotten have been stated income loans, and I've never had a problem.

It looks like my ability to close on a house before restrictions go into affect are close to nil, leaving me to rent until stated income programs are re-implimented (if at all) or I can create enough verified income to qualify.

I am just wondering if I can get your .02 on the housing market in Boulder County. I haven't been here long enough to see where it is going and I am not close enough to the mortgage side of things to figure out where things may be headed.

Maybe renting right now would be a good thing, especially if this is a declining market. (at least that is what I am going to tell myself if I lose this house) The GMAS ResCap report has this area as a "C"

At least I am not trying to still sell my house in a "D" market. I guess I am lucky that I found a qualified buyer at all.

There are many savvy people on this forum, and I value all the opinions I've received in the past. I look forward to any and all input you may have on this matter.

Thanks in advance!

[osman]

Originally Posted by Althea

I am just wondering if I can get your .02 on the housing market in Boulder County. I haven't been here long enough to see where it is going and I am not close enough to the mortgage side of things to figure out where things may be headed.

Could you be more specific about which market in Boulder County you're talking about. There's a huge difference between Longmont and Boulder, for example. Thanks.

[Althea]

Nederland and mountain areas.

[osman]

It's much harder to predict the mountain areas, frankly. Sometimes, it's hard to evaluate for market value. Typically you're looking at lower sales volume and much higher days on market.

Because Ned is not a resort market, it has less of the bubbly stuff going on in places like Aspen and Vale. I would think you should be fine waiting out for awhile. There could be better deals on the horizon.

[Noahma]

I would completely steer clear of boulder county for the moment, they are working on chaining there guidelines for construction. Limiting the size of houses to be built, or additions. Making the costs of the houses increase ten fold. They will require deconstruction plans, require the use of green items (some of the items on the list are only supplied by a few suppliers in Colorado) requiring solar panel use for heated pools (raises the price by a HUGE amount) They have not adopted them yet, but it might be coming. The city of boulder just decided to cancel the change to these plans because of local outrage. Boulder county has not decided if they will follow.

The codes are so restrictive that building a 2400 sq ft home might cost as much as 50% more, an addition of 1400 sq ft. might be dang near imposable.


some of the changes include introducing the HERS rating system on top of the already in place green point system. You cannot use items for both lists, so you have to reach a set amount of points on the list, using different materials. You send out your plans to a HERS rated inspector, who then charges you $1200 or so to inspect your design. If it fails to meet the HERS rating required, you will have to redesign, and reinspect for the same fee. No one knows exactly what it will take yet to get the points required, except that it will cost a GREAT deal more, and be severly restrictive. There are homes already built that are considered 5 star rated by energy star that would not pass through permits under these plans.

[Katiana]

Originally Posted by Noahma

I would completely steer clear of boulder county for the moment, they are working on chaining there guidelines for construction. Limiting the size of houses to be built, or additions. Making the costs of the houses increase ten fold. They will require deconstruction plans, require the use of green items (some of the items on the list are only supplied by a few suppliers in Colorado) requiring solar panel use for heated pools (raises the price by a HUGE amount) They have not adopted them yet, but it might be coming. The city of boulder just decided to cancel the change to these plans because of local outrage. Boulder county has not decided if they will follow.

The codes are so restrictive that building a 2400 sq ft home might cost as much as 50% more, an addition of 1400 sq ft. might be dang near imposable.


some of the changes include introducing the HERS rating system on top of the already in place green point system. You cannot use items for both lists, so you have to reach a set amount of points on the list, using different materials. You send out your plans to a HERS rated inspector, who then charges you $1200 or so to inspect your design. If it fails to meet the HERS rating required, you will have to redesign, and reinspect for the same fee. No one knows exactly what it will take yet to get the points required, except that it will cost a GREAT deal more, and be severly restrictive. There are homes already built that are considered 5 star rated by energy star that would not pass through permits under these plans.

I would add that this refers only to homes in the unicorporated areas of Boulder Co. The city of Boulder is also planning some sort of sqare footage limitations. Louisvill, Lafayette, Superior, etc, have not proposed anything like that that I am aware of.

[Noahma]

Originally Posted by Katiana

I would add that this refers only to homes in the unicorporated areas of Boulder Co. The city of Boulder is also planning some sort of sqare footage limitations. Louisvill, Lafayette, Superior, etc, have not proposed anything like that that I am aware of.

The city of Boulder has recently decided not to implement the changes. We are very relived, we have 7 homes in for permit at the moment, and if they were to be kicked out due to a minimal change. We would have to resubmit and they might not get accepted due to the new changes. Boulder county is still planning on placing these into effect at the moment, although we are praying they do not. Louisville, and Superior fall under a different jurisdiction, but if I remember right, Lafayette does fall under boulder County jurisdiction as far as the planning and building department are concerned.