Where do people move from? (Bozeman: real estate market, mortgage, vacation home)

[RARsop]

I have been selling real estate for the past 6 years here in the Gallatin Valley. After going through the public school systems in Bozeman, I had the opportunity to 'spread my wings' and explore the world whether I chose to attend college or pursue different opportunities. I chose to stay. Graduated from Montana State University, receiving a BS in Business Marketing. While attending MSU, I attained my Real Estate license. Coming from a real estate background, my father was a huge advocate of my choice.

Basically my question is, when people make the choice to move to Bozeman/Gallatin Valley, where are they moving from? Does the census do such a study? Any help in the right direction would be appreciated!
Thanks!

[flyingcat2k]

Forbes issues a map every year based on IRS information from the prior filing year. The link is for 2011 and the map should be updated sometime in March of this year.

American Migration [Interactive Map] - Forbes

Most moves to Gallatin County, excluding Montana and Wyoming, are from Southern California and King County for 2010 and 2009. The moves out, excluding Montana and Wyoming, are largely to Denver and Seattle (excluding King County).

Net moves for 2009 and 2010 were out rather than in. I would expect 2011 to be ballanced to slightly in. Interestingly enough, inbound income per capita and outbound income per capita are well below national average which is typical of a college area.

[volosong]

Originally Posted by flyingcat2k

American Migration [Interactive Map] - Forbes

Most moves to Gallatin County, excluding Montana and Wyoming, are from Southern California and King County for 2010 and 2009. The moves out, excluding Montana and Wyoming, are largely to Denver and Seattle (excluding King County).

Net moves for 2009 and 2010 were out rather than in. I would expect 2011 to be ballanced to slightly in. Interestingly enough, inbound income per capita and outbound income per capita are well below national average which is typical of a college area.

It's fun to play with maps, and this one is an interesting map.

Taking a look at the SoCal/Gallatin migration patterns, from the ten counties that are usually thought of as being "Southern California", four did not have any migration between the two locations. Of the six other counties, they sent 156 people to Gallatin while 96 people migrated from Gallatin to one of those six SoCal counties. A net migration from SoCal to Gallatin of only 60 people, slightly more than one a week! Gallatin actually sent 16 more people to San Diego county than it received from SD.

The net migration is a lot less than I would have thought. We all know the jokes about BozAngeles and the impact of Californians in Gallatin, but can one person per week really make that much of a difference? Sure, there is a cumulative effect of the years contributing to net immigration, but I wonder if other factors affecting the changing character of Bozeman are in play.

[ElkHunter]

Originally Posted by volosong

It's fun to play with maps, and this one is an interesting map.

Taking a look at the SoCal/Gallatin migration patterns, from the ten counties that are usually thought of as being "Southern California", four did not have any migration between the two locations. Of the six other counties, they sent 156 people to Gallatin while 96 people migrated from Gallatin to one of those six SoCal counties. A net migration from SoCal to Gallatin of only 60 people, slightly more than one a week! Gallatin actually sent 16 more people to San Diego county than it received from SD.

The net migration is a lot less than I would have thought. We all know the jokes about BozAngeles and the impact of Californians in Gallatin, but can one person per week really make that much of a difference? Sure, there is a cumulative effect of the years contributing to net immigration, but I wonder if other factors affecting the changing character of Bozeman are in play.

When the one person a month comes to Bozeman with more money than 100 Bozeman residents total, then yes, they can make a major impact. When the people in Bozeman have things set up and priced right so that long time residents can play in the game, and then one person comes along and buys the ball field and changes all the rules, yes, they can make a major impact. It's not the shere numbers, it's the power behind the numbers.

Also, you are missing one very important fact. Those migration trails are based on IRS statements on where the person now files their income tax. There are a great number of folks that use Montana as their weekend home, their second home or vacation home. They still live in California as far as the IRS is concerned.

[volosong]

You make a valid point, EH, but I submit that one of the major reasons that Californians have so much money is the result of past net migration from "snow belt" states into CA and that due to the law of supply and demand, has caused the cost of housing to skyrocket, along with the associated increase in cost-of-living and wages.

When a Californian has had enough of the madness, they will then sell their house to the next unsuspecting immigrant and take their equity to some place with a lower cost-of-living.

So, it is not a one-way street. This is how it was in the past, before the current recession, (unlike the government, I personally do not believe that we have climbed out of the current recession that began in 2007/2008). These days, when a vast majority of homeowners have seen the loss of their equity, it is a much more level field. (Of course, there are always exceptions and outliers. Those who have "struck it rich" through initiative and seizing opportunities.)

I know that I'm in that situation, (the former, not the latter). Partly because I've been paying extra toward the principal every month, I'm not underwater on the mortgage any more. But, I have very little equity. The market is coming back slowly and by the time I bail, (retire, sell out, and leave the state), I should be okay...I hope. My level of comfort in retirement will be determined on how well the real estate market bounces back in SoCal. It could be a difference between having to watch my pennies or being able to explore, travel extensively, and buy all the toys.

[historyfan]

EH's point that the Gallatin region has many out of state buyers who do not change their residency is THE point from real estate industry perspective.
From a change in social customs, rules, etc. perspective the move in residency in order to be a voter would be a valid tracker.
Bringing West coastal dollars inward has historically been advantageous. What has tripped individuals up is the miscalculation of the actual costs of desire living style in such a place while a wage earner at local pay levels. In other words they burn through that extra house money from selling Calif and buying Mont spending it in order "to live" in less than five years and then move away.
It would be interesting to discuss what percent of residents are part of the revolving door of Gallatin. There is definitely a constantly in flux transitional population that has nothing to do with college student residency.

[NYMTman]

During Bozeman's pre-recession heydey, was attracting more on the order of 200 net migrants from SoCal per year. That is large enough to make a difference in such a small place, IMO. Look at the data from 2005, 06 etc.