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Here is the article for those who could not read it:
For years, the weak point in Buffalo Niagara's so-called "renaissance" has been its sluggish job growth.
Now, there are signs that the pace of hiring is becoming even more anemic.
The big question is why it's happening. And that's not so easy to answer.
It could be that the economy is finally starting to slow after a decade of slow, but steady, growth. But it also could be that more benign factors are at play, like the difficulty that companies are having finding qualified workers at a time when the pool of available workers has shrunk to its lowest level in nearly 30 years and our population is stagnant.
"If we are slowing down, it's because it's too hard for employers to find people," said Timothy Glass, the regional economist for the State Labor Department.
In fact, Glass isn't even convinced that we're slowing down at all.
Let's start off by looking at the numbers. New data from the State Labor Department on Thursday showed that the pace of job growth here slowed last month to an annualized rate of just 0.5%. Nationally, hiring is almost three times faster.
What was concerning about the latest local numbers is that September's hiring was the slowest monthly increase since February and the third straight month that the pace of hiring had slowed from the month before.
"That trend is not a positive sign," said Julie Anna Golebiewski, a Canisius College economist. "It's half the growth rate we saw in June."
LOCAL JOB GROWTH SLOWS IN SEPTEMBER
That's worrisome, but those monthly job numbers come with a big caveat: While they are the most timely employment indicator that we have, they also can be quite volatile – and in recent years, they also have been subject to some major revisions as more detailed job data becomes available. But we have to wait until next year for those revisions.
A second set of more detailed job data paints a similarly subdued picture of the local job market. But while those numbers are considered to be highly accurate, they also are much less timely. The latest numbers from that series run only through March, but they also peg job growth during the first three months of this year at a sluggish 0.6% – less than half of the nationwide gain.
Another indicator – the local unemployment rate – also has ticked up slightly, rising to 4.2% in August from 4% in July.
Then there's the recent flurry of concerning employment news this month. Catholic Health Systems is offering buyouts to older workers in a bid to cut costs. DeGraff Hospital is scaling back its operations in a move that affects 50 jobs. Synacor Inc. is cutting 14 jobs after losing a key contract. Edwards Vacuum is eliminating 65 jobs at its Wheatfield factory.
After years of relatively stability, those cutbacks could be a sign of rising instability within the local job market.
Glass isn't so sure. He doesn't think there's enough data in place to discern a downward trend.
"We have steady, good growth," he said.
At least by Buffalo standards, that is.
Our job growth last year averaged 0.6%. Through the first nine months of this year, it's averaged 0.7%. Glass thinks that's a good way to sift out much of the month-to-month volatility.
And Canisius economists George Palumbo and Mark Zaporowski point out that the Buffalo Niagara economy has lagged badly behind the rest of the country in job growth for more than 30 years, creating one local job for every eight that were added nationally.
Over the last 10 years – during the so-called renaissance – our job growth has trailed the U.S. gains to a lesser, but still substantial, margin. During that time, the gap has narrowed to about two local jobs for every five created nationally, and that trend hasn't changed this year, either.
"Neither of them is good," Palumbo said.
There are other indicators that also are reassuring about the health of the local job market. The August uptick in unemployment was too small to be statistically significant. Jobless rates still are at 19-year lows, and they're close to a level that economists consider to be at full employment.
Unemployment is still very low
The jobless rate was 4.2% in Buffalo Niagara during August
UNEMPLOYMENT IS STILL VERY LOW
You also don't have to go far to find a "help wanted" sign outside local businesses, which continue to struggle to find qualified workers. That's because the pool of people who don't have jobs but are actively looking for one is at its lowest level in three decades.
The makeup of our population has a lot to do with that. Our population skews older, and that means we have an outsized share of baby boomers heading into retirement, while our stagnant population also means we're not replenishing our labor pool with younger workers at the same rate as is happening nationally.
"With the unemployment rate continuing to go down, it's just getting harder and harder for companies to find people," Glass said.
"There are still people out there looking for jobs," he said. "If you want a job right now, you can get one, unless you have a barrier, like needing transportation."
An uptick in the ranks of the unemployed
The number of people without jobs rose during August
AN UPTICK IN THE RANKS OF THE UNEMPLOYED
That's a problem for many companies, especially those in the far-off suburbs, where public transportation is spotty. And that is forcing some companies to get creative. Fisher-Price offers transportation services to its East Aurora campus. Servotronics Inc., which has dozens of openings at its Elma factory, is advertising for workers on billboards.
Those are all signs of a tight job market.
And the pace of hiring is slowing nationally, too. "It might be that we're just following the trend," Golebiewski, of Canisius College, said.
Other indicators continue to flash healthy signs for the local economy. Home sales are robust and prices have been rising faster than the rest of the country each year since 2016. New home construction is robust in the suburbs. Companies such as Moog Inc. and TMP Technologies are expanding locally. M&T Bank is opening a technology hub downtown that eventually could host 1,500 jobs. The flurry of investment by developers to transform old buildings continues in Buffalo.
So the outlook is far from gloomy. There just might be a few more clouds on the horizon.
1) A lot of students at UB come from places like Great Neck and Yonkers and Schenectady and Beijing and other points beyond. These kids never intended to stay here permanently and we never expected them to.
2) As VA Yankee noted, the same effect happens at most big universities, or at least at ones that aren’t located in global cities.
3) In this era of economic globalization that started a few decades ago, small towns are dying and and international cities are booming. Buffalo is somewhere in between. We’re big enough to take in folks fleeing places like Elmira and Cortland, but we’re also small enough to lose folks to New York, DC, and Chicago. If you really want to sing the blues, look at the small towns like Elmira - they’re in a freefall, whereas Buffalo is fortunate to be steady overall.
4) Buffalo is also benefiting from a trickle-down from the overheated economies of New York City and DC and so on where a starter home costs upwards of a million dollars. Young professionals struggle to be able to afford to live in these overpriced cities, so they’re coming back to their hometowns - places like Buffalo, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, etc.
5) Speaking of Pittsburgh, they seem to be kicking our tails as a regional employment hub. Google located there. Ouch. So now the top graduates from Cornell, Carnegie-Mellon, UB, U of R, Case Western, and so on all go to Pittsburgh if they want to stay in driving distance of their hometowns and work for a global tech company.
6) Buffalo’s geography has been unfortunate in some ways. We’re trapped between 2 lakes and right next to a foreign country. If Americans could ever easily work in Canada or vice-Versa, Buffalo could become a feeder to the Toronto region.
7) Did folks actually read the article linked? It was positive about Buffalo’s economy, not negative. And it wasn’t a great article. Everyone should know that the national economy is in a recession right now.
8) All this obsession over job numbers is old-school stupidonomics that ignores everything else that matters, like health and quality of life and happiness and the environment and equality and community and so on.
9) Buffalo is also gaining from globalism in that we’re taking in a lot of folks from poor, developing countries that make Buffalo look like paradise. These folks work hard, pay taxes, start businesses, and add to the local culture.
10) If you’re not a professional economist, you shouldn’t embarrass yourself by trying to argue about Buffalo’s economy, one way or the other. You should stick to arguing about the Bills or something where you know what you’re talking about. And if you really care about how Buffalo’s economy is doing, relax. The fate of a million-person metro area is much larger than whatever happens to you.
1&2- No one said they were expected to stay, however, after 4 years, you know the place pretty well. Many actually live in houses and have lived as a Buffalonian.
4- Can't have it both ways. Are they going back to the big cities or not?
5- Pittsburg is the size of Buffalo and Rochester combined. Why is that always thrown out as a compareson?
6- Buffalo has an excellent location. You think Buffalo should just be a bedroom comunity for Toronto?
7- Of course I read it. It says there are lots of jobs (a good thing), but not the people to fill them (a bad thing). Having jobs, but not the people is a net overall bad thing because eventually those jobs will go away too. BTW, What national recesion?
8-I agree, quality of life is the most important thing. But growth does improve quality of life. Further, there have been billions in investment. Those investors want their ROI. What happens if this new development fails?
9- Yes, there have been about 8,000 Somali refugees in recent years to finally put a cork in the drain, but are they high skilled?
10- No, I'm not a proffessional economist, but I do understand economicts. Far more than I know about the bills. A lot of taxpayer money is involved, so of course I care
As far as employment goes. From first hand experience in hiring over my 40+ year career in WNY, I noticed a substantial drop in qualified applicants, that I personally interviewed, for our jobs over the last 20+ years. Where we used to have 100-125 applicants it dropped to 30-40 with many really unqualified. I agree with the Buffalo News article on that point. Also the loss of manufacturing jobs with nice benefits really impacted our business in a negative fashion. You can cite statistics and dueling websites, but I can tell you from personal, first hand experience from a local business with 8 locations in a 40 mile radius of Buffalo that has been in business since the early 1950's that the area, from a business point of view, has deteriorated substantially. Call centers and just above minimum wage jobs do not come anywhere near the manufacturing jobs in terms of benefits, that are lost and gone forever. This problem is not only just Buffalo, but it is a real issue there.
^ This last post makes me wonder, does anyone know what the Average Annual Income/Pay for the metro was in past decades? Currently, as of May 2018 Bureau of Labor Statistics information, the Annual Mean Wage in the Buffalo metro area is $49,420. That is 5th out of Upstate NY metro areas behind Ithaca($58,180), Albany($54,400), Syracuse($51,400) and Rochester($50,830), in pay order, highest to lowest on average. However, that Buffalo figure is on par with, give or take, the incomes of many of the areas people from the area may move to.
Buffalo certainly isn't struggling like it used to be-you can't really argue that. Almost every metric has improved relative to the national metric in the past 20 or so years. However, Buffalo also is far from booming. It's doing well for Buffalo, but not compared to other areas nationally. My prediction is Buffalo will not really grow or shrink quickly for the foreseeable future-the profuse bleeding has stopped but the healing will take time. Unfortunately for Buffalo, NYS does a great job kneecapping businesses and tax paying workers. Until that is fixed, Buffalo will not grow by any appreciable measure.
As far as employment goes. From first hand experience in hiring over my 40+ year career in WNY, I noticed a substantial drop in qualified applicants, that I personally interviewed, for our jobs over the last 20+ years. Where we used to have 100-125 applicants it dropped to 30-40 with many really unqualified. I agree with the Buffalo News article on that point. Also the loss of manufacturing jobs with nice benefits really impacted our business in a negative fashion. You can cite statistics and dueling websites, but I can tell you from personal, first hand experience from a local business with 8 locations in a 40 mile radius of Buffalo that has been in business since the early 1950's that the area, from a business point of view, has deteriorated substantially. Call centers and just above minimum wage jobs do not come anywhere near the manufacturing jobs in terms of benefits, that are lost and gone forever. This problem is not only just Buffalo, but it is a real issue there.
Well, despite the substantial hints dropped above, I'm still going to ask you outright: what business are you referring to in the section I bolded? Thanks for posting the article, btw, as I too have reached my monthly limit of Buffalo News articles (last one I read was worth it--my friend Ben Tsujimoto's review of a 'meadery' in my hometown of West Seneca, heh)
I agree, quality of life is the most important thing. But growth does improve quality of life.
Economic growth actually often reduces quality of life, believe it or not. They didn’t teach us that in classical economics. But that is quickly becoming apparent in the modern era.
Economic growth actually often reduces quality of life, believe it or not. They didn’t teach us that in classical economics. But that is quickly becoming apparent in the modern era.
And I see your problem. No. Increased economic activity as more money and people to the equation, without question allows for more and better everything. Your problem is "being teached" as opposed to "learning". Schools nowadays don't teach. They force their opinion on you
And I see your problem. No. Increased economic activity as more money and people to the equation, without question allows for more and better everything. Your problem is "being teached" as opposed to "learning". Schools nowadays don't teach. They force their opinion on you
Did you really just respond "Your problem is being teached..." in response to his comment "they didn't teach us that..."???
And I see your problem. No. Increased economic activity as more money and people to the equation, without question allows for more and better everything. Your problem is "being teached" as opposed to "learning". Schools nowadays don't teach. They force their opinion on you
Rather than explain the field of economics to you, let’s put this in simpler terms. Get out of Rochester for a while, and come down to Houston where I live. Houston is one of the most booming cities in the country by any measure, and has been for decades. As of WWII, Houston and Buffalo were about the same size. Now Houston is 6 times larger than Buffalo. That’s how much Houston has grown. And Houston is projected to go from 6 million to 10 million in the next few decades. Come look around this “wonderland” that is Houston and the “great riches” that economic growth has delivered. Then tell me what you think.
You can start by landing at either of Houston’s major airports (it has 2). Rent a car and drive around in any direction. Each airport is surrounded by hundreds of square miles of ghettoes. You can see black ghettoes, Hispanic ghettoes, white ghettoes, and probably some other types of ghettoes. For hundreds of square miles. You can drive for hours and never see any place you’d ever want to live. Discarded trash along the medians. Streets without trees. Cheap homes stuffed with extended families. Corner liquor marts instead of real grocery stores. Homeless people loitering at the highway underpasses, panhandling the cars that stop at traffic lights.
And then you can hop on any of our freeways. Any time of day or night, any day of the week. Try a Saturday morning. Try a Sunday evening. Try late morning on a weekday. You’ll likely see bumper-to-bumper traffic. Not from accidents. Just bumper-to-bumper traffic because someone slowed down or got sun in his eyes. Want to go, say, 30 miles from one part of Houston to another. Better give yourself over an hour to do it. That’s on a freeway.
It’s even more fun when it’s your daily commute of 2 to 3 hours round-trip. Because of course, you can’t afford to live anywhere near downtown, or at least not in any neighborhood that doesn’t have gunshots every night. So to find a decent neighborhood, you get to commute 10 to 15 hours a week. You get to breathe pollution, cramped in road-raged, stop-and-start traffic for as much time as some people spend at a part-time job each week.
And then look around at entire neighborhoods ravaged by flooding, because so many people have built so many homes, that there isn’t enough green space to soak up all the rain any more. The rainwater has nowhere to go - it just hits pavement and more pavement. Some 100,000 homes in the Houston area flooded in the storm a year or two ago.
And get used to bad ozone days. Ever have a day when the news says that it’s unsafe to go outside if you have a health concern? That tells you something about the quality of the air in Houston - not that you can’t smell it yourself. Entire portions of Houston are famous for their air so polluted that residents suffer from chronic sinus conditions. We have lots of oil refineries here, not just too many cars and freeways and factories.
Jobs in Houston? It must be wonderful, right? Think again. There are plenty of minimum-wage jobs in Houston. But if you’re looking for white-collar, professional, decent-paying jobs, the competition is stiff. All these millions of people coming to Houston - they’re looking for the same jobs you’re looking for. I talk to young college graduates in Houston that spend a year searching for the first real job before they give up and move to another city or go back to school for another degree. Economic growth means nothing if population growth keeps pace with it - which it certainly does here in Houston. In fact, by the news stories out of Buffalo, it looks like Buffalo is a better market for job seekers than Houston is.
What “wonderful” fruits of growth in Houston are you missing? We have a couple more pro sports team here? Oh, but remember we have 6 times the population that’s Buffalo does. So try getting tickets to a pro game in Houston. You’re better off for that in Buffalo.
So what else does growth get the folks in Houston? Better schools? Nope. Check the test scores. I’m talking about high schools. But we can talk colleges, too. Is UB better than the only major public college in Houston (University of Houston)? Nope. UB is just as good or better than U of H.
How about hospitals and health care? Houston has MD Anderson. Buffalo has Roswell Park. Can you tell the difference between two top-notch health facilities? Probably not. No advantage there either.
How about amusement parks? Buffalo has Darien Lake. Houston has...nothing! Houston used to have an amusement park called Astro World but it went out of business a decade ago.
What aspect of quality of life does Houston have an advantage over Buffalo? We can talk about crowding, congestion, high prices, pollution, crime, the job market, even entertainment...and one of the most booming boomtowns in the country is as bad or worse than Buffalo in virtually every way that affects an average person like you or me.
Come see for yourself. Come see what economic growth gets you. Higher stress, lower life expectancy, higher costs. You tell me where the advantage is. I haven’t found it yet.
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