Curious as to why people are leaving our area (the state as a whole) (New York: crimes, big house)

[7 Wishes]

I just saw this for the first time, and had to comment.

1) People are NOT leaving the state as a whole, they are leaving UPSTATE New York in droves, as has been the case since the 1960's (now I will admit contrary to stereotypes the upstate region is 35-40% of the population of the state so it does still mean something). In the 1970's the NYC region had people leaving in droves too (so the state lost population), but that has reversed and stabililized the state population as a whole.

2) That said, I can understand why this is happening. Sadly, pretty much everything north of Poughkeepsie (and the line used to be further south of that, maybe north of Newburgh or Peekskill, but that region has changed with "refugees" from hi NYC housing costs) has an economy somewhat similar to Michigan (I thought maybe with Kodak, Xerox and Bausch + Lomb that Rochester would have some promise, but they didn't adapt technology well and that city just got unlucky with them). So I don't blame people for leaving, but it's a shame because I think most of my state north of where I live (Westchester County) is beautiful physically and with better gov't policies to attract business actually has some potential, especially with the low cost of living (a HUGE contrast from metro NYC) that the sad economy of the region produced. I know back in the late 80s when I went to RPI the school tried hard to attract growing small tech companies to the Albany region and just couldn't compete on taxes, etc. with places like Raleigh, NC, Austin, TX and Silicon Valley, CA (LOL California is now crumbling on the same reasons that most of NY State did.....I guess climate and physical beauty ain't everything).

Before I'm accused of being a downstater "looking down" on ya (or for geographical accuracy, "looking up in a down manner" :-)), I will note that my sister has lived in the Buffalo area for 20 years, she is one of those people fortuntate enough to have a stable job (tenured college professor, though ironically her ex-hubby was a manager at HSBC and is lucky to still be at his job) and she tells me all these stories about neighbors moving to Charlotte, etc. (and she told me don't even think of relocating up there for the lower cost of living.....finding a job is extremely tough and the lower pay will offset the cost).

[Canerican]

I agree with most of that, I did a little more research and seems like people are expecting the population of NY to increase by about 100,000 in all (since 2000), but the birthrate in NY over that time was far higher, so it is kind of like people left, but the birthrate saved NY.

I agree about upstate though, cities like Buffalo, Rochester, Elmira, Syracuse, Poughkeepsie, Binghampton, etc. are all losing people way to quickly.

[Digital_Duck]

Originally Posted by Canerican

I agree with most of that, I did a little more research and seems like people are expecting the population of NY to increase by about 100,000 in all (since 2000), but the birthrate in NY over that time was far higher, so it is kind of like people left, but the birthrate saved NY.

I agree about upstate though, cities like Buffalo, Rochester, Elmira, Syracuse, Poughkeepsie, Binghampton, etc. are all losing people way to quickly.

I don't really see that .... I left Buffalo in about 82 or so ... when I went back about 7 years ago - the westside around Grant & Ferry was so crowded with pedestrian traffic like I never saw before.

[jazzy jeff 11]

Originally Posted by Canerican

I agree with most of that, I did a little more research and seems like people are expecting the population of NY to increase by about 100,000 in all (since 2000), but the birthrate in NY over that time was far higher, so it is kind of like people left, but the birthrate saved NY.

I agree about upstate though, cities like Buffalo, Rochester, Elmira, Syracuse, Poughkeepsie, Binghampton, etc. are all losing people way to quickly.

Yeah they are. My biggest "pet peeve" is when you ask someone outta state.

Oh whats the first thing you think of when you here NEW YORK?

9 out of 10 i get a response of NYC. Personally NYC is partially why this state is sooo dang screwed up. I think the state of New York would be better without NYC or Long Island

[UpstaterInBklyn]

1) People are NOT leaving the state as a whole, they are leaving UPSTATE New York in droves, as has been the case since the 1960's (now I will admit contrary to stereotypes the upstate region is 35-40% of the population of the state so it does still mean something). In the 1970's the NYC region had people leaving in droves too (so the state lost population), but that has reversed and stabililized the state population as a whole.

Actually.... NYC's population growth comes completely from international immigration. The city's net domestic migration is actually flat to slightly negative, but the difference is made up by the large number of immigrants arriving from other countries.

So... yes people are leaving the state as a whole, including the NYC metro area, but in NYC enough people move here from other parts of the US to make up most of the loss, and foreign immigrants contribute the growth.

[ckhthankgod]

Originally Posted by Canerican

I agree with most of that, I did a little more research and seems like people are expecting the population of NY to increase by about 100,000 in all (since 2000), but the birthrate in NY over that time was far higher, so it is kind of like people left, but the birthrate saved NY.

I agree about upstate though, cities like Buffalo, Rochester, Elmira, Syracuse, Poughkeepsie, Binghampton, etc. are all losing people way to quickly.

I think it varies by the city, county and area too. While the cities are losing people, many times those people are just moving to the suburbs. For instance, Onondaga County's population has slightly increased.

Also, some places are in a state of transition from manufacutring to health care, education and even some tech. jobs. So, it might just be a matter of going back to school for some people.

Here in Syracuse, we have lost some manufacturing recently, but we have jobs at places like Syracuse University, Anaren, Syracuse Research Corporation, Sensis, Upstate Medical Center, Crouse and St. Joseph's Hospitals, Hillside Children's Center and Lockheed Martin, among others. Here's a good place to check what I'm talking about: Central New York Jobs

[Canerican]

Check out the Census Bureau's data, they go county by county and show the population change. I looked through each county in New York, and if I remember right only 7 or 8 increased. (Most of them were in and around NYC, Kings, Queens, Westchester, etc.)

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by UpstaterInBklyn

Actually.... NYC's population growth comes completely from international immigration. The city's net domestic migration is actually flat to slightly negative, but the difference is made up by the large number of immigrants arriving from other countries.

So... yes people are leaving the state as a whole, including the NYC metro area, but in NYC enough people move here from other parts of the US to make up most of the loss, and foreign immigrants contribute the growth.

Actually, until recently a lot of the post-1980 growth was also people moving here from other parts of the US for Wall Street jobs, etc.

Originally Posted by Canerican

I agree with most of that, I did a little more research and seems like people are expecting the population of NY to increase by about 100,000 in all (since 2000), but the birthrate in NY over that time was far higher, so it is kind of like people left, but the birthrate saved NY.

I agree about upstate though, cities like Buffalo, Rochester, Elmira, Syracuse, Poughkeepsie, Binghampton, etc. are all losing people way to quickly.

Not true about Poughkeepsie, it has actually been growing (as has Dutchess County in general). When IBM started to tank in the early 1990s it was losing people, but the sudden insane increases in housing prices further south have caused people to move up there and have "super commutes" downstate. I worked with quite a few of these people.

[Canerican]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Not true about Poughkeepsie, it has actually been growing (as has Dutchess County in general). When IBM started to tank in the early 1990s it was losing people, but the sudden insane increases in housing prices further south have caused people to move up there and have "super commutes" downstate. I worked with quite a few of these people.

It had grown about 3% 2000-05, but 2000-2008 it has only grown 0.3%.

Obviously it has had a tough past few years. But I hear what you are saying, Poughkeepsie would make a long, but possibly worthwhile commute if you wanted some land in safe town.

[UpstaterInBklyn]

Actually, until recently a lot of the post-1980 growth was also people moving here from other parts of the US for Wall Street jobs, etc.

As I so often say here... "Never let facts get in the way of a good opinion", but here are the facts.

Based on US Census Data for the period April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2006 (the latest figures available):

The NYC Metro Region had the following population changes:

Total Population Change: + 495,154 (+2.7%)
Natural Increase (births minus deaths) + 724,190
Net Domestic Migration - 1,447,239
Net International Migration + 1,067,539

So, the NYC Metro area LOST 1.4 million people to other parts of the US and gained a over a million new immigrants from other countries for a net loss of 379,700 through migration. Only a lot of new births created growth.

Source is here

It may seem like everyone has been coming to NYC to work on Wall Street, and quite a few have, but a LOT MORE people have left.

Note: I also need to correct my own assumption in a previous post. I thought that net domestic migration was basically flat. The fact that net domestic migration is so negative is surprising. In another dataset linked off the same source page, it shows that in 2005, NYC lost over 268,000 people to out-migration and that Nassau-Suffolk actually lost population.