New Home Sales Hit 13-year Low (foreclosure, credit, debt, mortgage rates)

[chuck22b]

I took the headline from CNN about the new Commerce Department report on new home sales for this thread to capitalize on the DRAMATIC drop on new home sales! Here's the link to the article bellow:
New home sales slip to 13-year low, but top forecasts. - Mar. 26, 2008

New homes sales dropped 1.8% from January! OMG!

UNFORTUNATELY, no one really bothers looking at the actual report linked at:
http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf

Here is the break down if you don't want to go there for the SEASONALLY adjusted rate:

Year/Month United States | East | Mid-West | South | West
January 2008: 601 | 62 | 78 | 315 | 146
February 2008: 590 | 37 | 73 | 333 | 147
% Change -1.8% | -40.3% | -6.4% | 5.7% | 0.7%

Also, Inventory levels decreased (Jan-Feb): 481 to 471 (-2.1%)

Notice something? Either the East, Mid-west had an atom bomb occurrence and people were shunning property like the plague for February or... perhaps the weather?

From NOAA:

Record February precipitation in the Northeast helped make the winter the fifth wettest on record for the region. New York had its wettest winter, while Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Vermont, and Colorado to the West, had their second wettest.
Snowfall was above normal in northern New England, where some locations posted all-time record winter snow totals. Concord, N.Y., received 100.1 inches, which was 22.1 inches above the previous record set during the winter of 1886-87. Burlington, VT., received 103.2 inches, which was 6.3 inches above the previous record set during the winter of 1970-71.

If you look at the trailing history for the East, it's been pretty stable at around 60k homes... so it leaves me to believe that something happened in February? If you look at the South and West, things have been picking up.

I guess it's another manipulation of the MEDIA to encourage sensationalism. Looking at the numbers isn't sexy.

-chuck22b

[CreditWitch]

Sales for new homes in Atlanta starting to pick up....but tis the season for that. As the third largest city I wonder how long we will suffer. I am looking into homebuilder junk stocks for my portfolio.

[chuck22b]

Originally Posted by CreditWitch

Sales for new homes in Atlanta starting to pick up....but tis the season for that. As the third largest city I wonder how long we will suffer. I am looking into homebuilder junk stocks for my portfolio.

Yea, tis the season for homes to pick up... but the rate quoted is seasonally adjusted. I think some "experts" have been saying to give Home builders a chance... I'm not sure yet... but I can see some potential.

-chuck22b

[pghquest]

Originally Posted by chuck22b

I took the headline from CNN about the new Commerce Department report on new home sales for this thread to capitalize on the DRAMATIC drop on new home sales! Here's the link to the article bellow:
New home sales slip to 13-year low, but top forecasts. - Mar. 26, 2008

New homes sales dropped 1.8% from January! OMG!

UNFORTUNATELY, no one really bothers looking at the actual report linked at:
http://www.census.gov/const/newressales.pdf

Here is the break down if you don't want to go there for the SEASONALLY adjusted rate:

Year/Month United States | East | Mid-West | South | West
January 2008: 601 | 62 | 78 | 315 | 146
February 2008: 590 | 37 | 73 | 333 | 147
% Change -1.8% | -40.3% | -6.4% | 5.7% | 0.7%

Also, Inventory levels decreased (Jan-Feb): 481 to 471 (-2.1%)

Notice something? Either the East, Mid-west had an atom bomb occurrence and people were shunning property like the plague for February or... perhaps the weather?

From NOAA:
If you look at the trailing history for the East, it's been pretty stable at around 60k homes... so it leaves me to believe that something happened in February? If you look at the South and West, things have been picking up.

I guess it's another manipulation of the MEDIA to encourage sensationalism. Looking at the numbers isn't sexy.

-chuck22b

I can tell you that I'm in the east, have an offer pending on a home that has 30% equity in it, + I'm putting another 20% down, I have no debt, and guaranteed income for the next 10+ years, and I'm having hell of a time getting financing on another home (current one paid off). The problem isnt the houses or people looking, its financing!

[evilnewbie]

I am not buying any home until it is reduced by a full 15% on appraised value...

[chuck22b]

Originally Posted by pghquest

I can tell you that I'm in the east, have an offer pending on a home that has 30% equity in it, + I'm putting another 20% down, I have no debt, and guaranteed income for the next 10+ years, and I'm having hell of a time getting financing on another home (current one paid off). The problem isnt the houses or people looking, its financing!

That sucks... the banks are exasperating their own problem. I read an article recently that the banks aren't doing much in terms of lowering mortgage rates in tune to treasury rates. This is causing the spread between treasury rates and mortgage rates to be quite a bit higher... I guess the banks are in risk mitigation mode... unfortunately. The mass amounts of foreclosures doesn't help.

-chuck22b

[chuck22b]

Originally Posted by evilnewbie

I am not buying any home until it is reduced by a full 15% on appraised value...

I think in the current market... that's very possible.

[Sky1]

I am waiting for a hell of a lot more than 15%. Try 30%.

[Sky1]

oh wait, forgot the dollar is worth about half it was last month. Okay 15% may be about right.