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Depression 2.0 coming to a street corner near you.
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: America
5,119 posts, read 3,504,713 times
Reputation: 907
So where is this housing market headed?
Doing research from economist I respect whole heartedly I have a good idea of where its going. Anyway here are two good links, hope to hear what you guys think
The graph is incredibly misleading on itulip, you see how they space the years on it? It was 1968, 1972, 1976, 1978, 1983... its all randomly spaced and skewing the graph results... I was trying to use it to see how "long" the corrections took place and as far as I can tell... 2-3 years to "create" the bubble and 3-5 years to for the bubble to turnaround... If that is "any" indication then this housing bubble which really started to take off in 2005 and peaked a little after 2007.. that means that it will bottom out by either 2010-2012... wow... those were my predictions at the beginning and I remember being bashed by real estate agents for saying that... but then I was betting on "feelings" rather than historical models... perfect time to buy I guess is 2011? Homes should lose about 100k in that time frame... unless the government jumps in and starts messing everything up (almost a guarantee)...
Depression 2.0 coming to a street corner near you.
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: America
5,119 posts, read 3,504,713 times
Reputation: 907
the bubble peak was in 2006 decline started in late 06, and took off in '07. The ONLY thing the government could do to change the housing market is to inflate wages, other than that there isn't much they can do. As for real estate agents, don't get mad at them. They sell the stuff, they aren't economist. They have no knowledge of how economies or finance work. People go, cram for tests, get licensed and begin selling, thats it. I have friends who are real estate agents. I warned them back in 2003 of what was happening and they said I didn't know what I was talking about. Now, well lets just say, life is a bit more stressful now.
As for the year this could bottom, it could be 2011 to 2014 those are the years I keep hearing about. Guess you just have to be ready and play it by ear.
Depression 2.0 coming to a street corner near you.
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: America
5,119 posts, read 3,504,713 times
Reputation: 907
^^
Yep, I have been reading that too. I keep trying to picture in my mind how this is all going to play out and the affect it will have. I imagine ghost towns are going to appear in certain sections of cities. I also imagine some areas will become emptier with those older residence who were smart enough not to refinance being ok. New residents and refinancing residents will be gone. I imagine we could see similiar situations in commercial areas, boy oh boy.
I for one think of falling home prices as a very good thing. The lower my property values get the happier I am ! Not sure why I am the only person who seems to feel this way though. Ideally my home would be worth less than 25,000.00 so I can own it!
Welcome to City-Data.com forum! Make sure to register - it's free and very quick! You have to register before you can post and participate in our discussions with 700,000 other registered members. User profiles and some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your free account you will be able to customize many options, you will have the full access to over 15,000 posts/day about local topics and you will see fewer ads. 
So where is this housing market headed?
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