Food prices to rise 9% per year through 2012 (buy, sell, company)

[movin'on]

Things are NOT going in the right direction. The only blessing I see in this is weight loss...

Food prices to rise 9 percent a year: analyst

By Charles Abbott 2 hours, 26 minutes ago

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. food prices will rise a stiff 9 percent a year through 2012, the largest increase since 1979 and the result of record-high crop prices, the head of an economic consulting company said on Thursday.

Food prices to rise 9 percent a year: analyst - Yahoo! News (broken link)

BTW, and as a sidenote, the Mayan calendar ends in 2012.

[forest beekeeper]

So you think that I can raise my prices for freerange eggs a bit?

Right now I have been getting $3/dozen, how about $3.50/dozen?

They run loose in the forest following my goats, feeding themselves all summer. One month of egg sales pays for the entire winter of feed bills. The rest is profit.

Maybe I should hatch some more chickens, increase my flock.

Honey prices are already going up

Maple syrup is going up too

Darn I do hate this economy

It just keeps making me more profits.

[Humanoid]

This is just a useless prediction, there is no way of predicting this in a reasonable way. If you could, you'd be rich.

It just keeps making me more profits.

Honestly this should sound an alarm. If your profits are increasing than your price increases aren't mere inflation.

[forest beekeeper]

Originally Posted by Humanoid

This is just a useless prediction, there is no way of predicting this in a reasonable way. If you could, you'd be rich.

Honestly this should sound an alarm. If your profits are increasing than your price increases aren't mere inflation.

It depends on your business model.

In the case of eggs:
[egg prices at grocery stores run a span of prices, from a base price to roughly double that, X to 2X]

Buying livestock feed from a national chain does go up each year [they blame trucking].

If you feed your chickens commercial feed [which is loaded with antibiotics and meds] all year around, then the break-even cost of your eggs will be right about the high-end pricing of commercial eggs at the grocery store [ 2X ]. Your eggs will be thin shelled, with light coloured yolks, and the yolks will be fragile. Your eggs will look, feel and taste just like commercial eggs. We have done this business model. Once folks are familiar with your product, they do not want to pay more than maybe X price for these eggs. And while your production will be very high, annually your gross receipts will about equal the feed bill. [the price of the hens, coops, electric, will all be a loss on the books]



If you feed your chickens through the winter, and let them freerange during the summer; then you produce less eggs. But one summer month of egg production [with 'freerange egg prices set at 2X] will break even your annual gross expense on feed. Your eggs will be thick shelled, with dark orange coloured yolks, and the yolks will be strong and will stand up. Most customers prefer this style of egg once they have eaten them. We have done this business model.

One summer month of egg production pays the annual feed bill. A second month of production pretty much covers the expenses of: buying the chicks, raising them for one year to get them to production size, building the coops, and the electric. The rest of summer production, and all off-season egg production is profit.


We have located grain producers who are organic, some of them use heavy equipment while others use draft horses. Their grains have no added meds or antibiotics. Their grains are priced at ~25% of the price of the commercial livestock feeds. [Commercial feed is ~$13 for a 50pound sack, local grain is ~$3.50 for a 50pound sack.] But the local organic grains do not store well, they tend to mold. So once you buy them, you need to seriously consider storage.

We are collecting 55-gallon drums. We plan to setup 20 drums filled with grain in the fall, with a small pail of desiccant in each drum, and then sealed. Hoping that it will provide safe storage through the winter months.

Chickens eating the organic grains tend to produce a thick shelled egg with stronger yolks, maybe a shade between yellow and orange. So you should still get a higher price, 1.75X in not 2X or higher. I have seen organic eggs of this quality that were graded going for 3X.

And I am thinking that we might be able to put the chickens on organic feed all year around, maintaining the higher production levels, and still lower our annual feed bill.

So one summer month of heavy egg production should pay the annual feed bill, plus all expenses of: buying the chicks, raising them for one year to get them to production size, building the coops, and the electric.



On the other hand, this year we have been incubating our own eggs, and hatching our own chicks. The cost of doing this is about half the cost of buying chicks on-line. So our expenses continue to drop.

[Philip T]

Originally Posted by forest beekeeper

Darn I do hate this economy

I always seem to stay busy and things get better during the "down" times, too.

And suppliers and help get available and actually helpful, as well.

It just keeps making me more profits.

If you do not watch it, you will wind up owing . . . . Income Taxes! egad!

[forest beekeeper]

Originally Posted by Philip T

...
If you do not watch it, you will wind up owing . . . . Income Taxes! egad!

Thanks for your concern, we are pretty much sheltered though.

I am not really concerned much about the possibility of starting to pay income taxes.

Though you are right to remind folks that we should all keep this in mind. More so if you do not have consistant sheltering.

[Mathguy]

Originally Posted by movin'on

Things are NOT going in the right direction. The only blessing I see in this is weight loss...



Food prices to rise 9 percent a year: analyst - Yahoo! News (broken link)

BTW, and as a sidenote, the Mayan calendar ends in 2012.

You ever wonder how a consulting economist gets business, gets their name in the paper...free advertising?
Also, no mention of substitution...which I will certainly be doing some of.

[Philip T]

Originally Posted by Mathguy

Also, no mention of substitution...which I will certainly be doing some of.

I hear that Spam sales are heading way up.

ENJOY!

[lchoro]

They were probably under on the real food inflation that last couple of years.

Notice recently that Chik-Fil-A has realigned its menu. They used to sell the cole slaw as part of the sandwich, fries, cole slaw, and drink meal. Now the same meal is priced the same $ 5.75 but without the cole slaw. An instant 20 percent price increase by cutting back on ingredients.

Many of the other fast food establishments have taken the soft drink out of the meal and kept the price the same. Others have jacked up the price on soft drinks to almost $2 for unlimited refill, knowing most people won't drink that much.

[Mathguy]

Originally Posted by Philip T

I hear that Spam sales are heading way up.

ENJOY!

I was thinking more along the lines of increased coupon clipping buying bulk on sales, off-brands etc.....spam and I just don't get along.