How high will unemployment get? (2010, companies, interest, money)

[sergeyn]

...I mean the official government measure. I know that many people don't trust it but it's really the only concrete figure we can go on.

[sergeyn]

I voted 13-15%. That's because I think this crisis is of severity that is somewhere in the middle between the Great Depression and the recession of the early 80's-- the most severe recession since the Great Depression.

I can't imagine that this will be a complete collapse but I am afraid that this is more than "just a recession". The events of October seemed to be out of the ordinary and the latest economic data is not to be disregarded-- 30-40% drop in auto sales over a year means that the economy is seriously in trouble.

However, I'm not a doomer. I believe that our way of life will essentially stay the same and this period of difficulty will be over by the next Presidential election.

[Buckeye in SC]

I voted 7-9% thinking it will be towards the high-end 9% sometime next spring or summer before the economy starts to turn. I hope that it doesn't go any higher than that!

[the_critic]

Does the unemployment rate include the illegal aliens who are being thrown out of work due to stricter checking of documents at employers and the use of E-Verify?

[sergeyn]

Originally Posted by the_critic

Does the unemployment rate include the illegal aliens who are being thrown out of work due to stricter checking of documents at employers and the use of E-Verify?

The question only concerns legal (and therefore counted) residents of the US. An unemployed illegal Mexican residing in the US contributes to Mexico's unemployement, not ours.

[carp killer]

If Christmas falls flat and we lose a car company I predict 20%+.

This recession reminds me of watching a snow ball picking up speed and more snow. Pretty soon it's smashing down trees and rocks making a hell of a mess. Mean while the governments of the world are throwing money at it trying to stop it. Money they don't have.

Interesting to see what is going to happen.

[StoneOne]

Originally Posted by sergeyn

The question only concerns legal (and therefore counted) residents of the US. An unemployed illegal Mexican residing in the US contributes to Mexico's unemployement, not ours.

Isn't unemployment defined as people who are actively searching for work and are registered with a government agency as doing so? In that case, illegal mexicans wouldn't be actively searching for work in Mexico and thus be outside the system altogether.

[davidt1]

Originally Posted by sergeyn

The question only concerns legal (and therefore counted) residents of the US. An unemployed illegal Mexican residing in the US contributes to Mexico's unemployement, not ours.

Really? Do Mexican illegals compete for jobs in Mexico, go to school in Mexico, or get health care in Mexico? If they are here, they are impacting our system and the system is impacting them.

[bale002]

Originally Posted by sergeyn

However, I'm not a doomer. I believe that our way of life will essentially stay the same and this period of difficulty will be over by the next Presidential election.

I'm not a doomer either, but you are seriously deluded if you think the way of life of the 1950s-1990s middle class in the US and Europe will stay the same going forward.

The standard of living for the average worker going forward will move down towards Brazilian/Chinese et al standards, while the living standards of the average worker in those countries will move up slightly.

In short we will meet somewhere in the middle, but at a lower level than that enjoyed by the "golden age" middle classes of the US and Europe.

This process has been ongoing since the 1980s, and the current crisis most likely represents an acceleration of that process.

One of the ways to reverse it is the discovery/invention of a new magical energy formula (like oil a hundred years ago) and perhaps isolationism.

Unlikely.

In any case, I voted 10%-12% and I sincerely hope it doesn't go any higher. If the government does bail out the car companies, I hope it will be on the condition that they invest in alterantive fuel vehicles and/or public transport vehicles and infrastructure, and certainly not in the same type of vehicles using last century's fuel.

But I'm not going to hold my breathe for that either; current US leadership, both in the corporations and government, is greedy and short-sighted.

[cohdane]

Goldman Sachs released a forecast today calling for 8.5%+ going into 2010:

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/the-insi...h-but-why.html