Cramer: Another Great Depression? No, and Here's Why (real estate, banks, unemployment)

[Thatguywho]

Originally Posted by neil0311

Do you believe this or are you just saying it for impact? Name me a single bank that has failed where depositors have lost money. Not only have a fraction of the banks failed compared to the Depression, but because we now have FDIC (and other) backing of deposits, there have not been any runs on the banks or losses by depositors. In the early 1930's, many businesses and individuals had their savings and capital wiped out.

We are in tough times, but I can't figure out why some of you insist on this mantra of the sky is falling and the end of times is upon us. If you enjoy living in fear and building up the worst, then fine. You can't keep on the rose colored glasses but neither can you keep beating the drum of doom and gloom when the evidence is not there to support it.

Every bank that failed blew savings and retirements of many people who had invested in them...and businesses that invested in them. And people who bought their mortgage backed securities.

And a few 300 billion us taxpayer bailouts, followed by a 700 billion dollar one, and a another 300 billion in the make....that is our money.
Plus, the people who did not 'lose money' were saved by...

ding

taxpayer money via the FDIC. Most of those banks that failed had to have their money covered by the FDIC. That is our money. Sure, you got it out of the bank, but now the debt is what, 11 trillion and counting?

The result may not be exactly the same, but those failures are part of a very long depression. The amount of money LOST by US is so much more than the great depression crash. AND the amount of jobs lost by all those branches adds up to a large number of people who have little or no money coming in.

AND...all those employess lost their benefits, pensions, and anything else that was part of their employment contract.

Painting a rosey face on it is what the people in the media and gov't have been doing for a long time.

'now is the time to buy stocks, now is the time to buy homes'

That is what they say. That is what they said (in about the same way) back in late 1929.
They called it a 'mental recession' and that the fundamentals of industry were strong'

any of this sound familiar?

Hoover 'would not comment on the daily stock market activity'

Hoover and his 'guys' said they were (and they did) make sure the 'banks had enough capitol' to cover ..margins...

Cramer is wrong. He has been wrong about this since 2004 (I watched him)
He was wrong about the homes and prices. Wrong about mortgages.
His 'blowup' was the only thing he was right about, but he never took it very far and never talked about it again.
He was wrong about credit, the market, the recession, etc.

He is good with stocks..but that is where his talent lies.

We are in a not-so-great depression. We need to work on getting out of it, not ignoring it.

That is the difference between drinking kool-aid and leadership.

Right now we need leadership, not another punch bowl.

at least, that is my opinion. I am just a lone soul out here. Take it with a grain of salt.


also, you do not hear much about it, but every single weekend quite a few county and local banks are failing...every weekend, all over the US and the world.

Georgia lost 5 or 6 this last weekend and 4 the weekend before.
California has lost a lot of local banks in the last month.

They are failing in droves, but small enough to be bought up or dismantiled by the FDIC.

just using google news and 'seized fdic' shows a lot.
FDIC has many on their publicly touted list that may fail too.

January is a new president, quarterly reports come out, the throne is passed from one party to another.

My advice is to hold on to your seats, 2009 is gonna be horrible..

[70Ford]

Originally Posted by neil0311

...there have not been any runs on the banks...

16.7 billion in 10 days at WaMu. I'd call that a small run on the bank. The article mentions they didn't close it after the first run...53 billion in one month.
Business & Technology | WaMu conspiracy theories abound, but there's no smoking gun | Seattle Times Newspaper

[58robbo]

Originally Posted by Thatguywho

Every bank that failed blew savings and retirements of many people who had invested in them...and businesses that invested in them. And people who bought their mortgage backed securities.

And a few 300 billion us taxpayer bailouts, followed by a 700 billion dollar one, and a another 300 billion in the make....that is our money.
Plus, the people who did not 'lose money' were saved by...

ding

taxpayer money via the FDIC. Most of those banks that failed had to have their money covered by the FDIC. That is our money. Sure, you got it out of the bank, but now the debt is what, 11 trillion and counting?

The result may not be exactly the same, but those failures are part of a very long depression. The amount of money LOST by US is so much more than the great depression crash. AND the amount of jobs lost by all those branches adds up to a large number of people who have little or no money coming in.

AND...all those employess lost their benefits, pensions, and anything else that was part of their employment contract.

Painting a rosey face on it is what the people in the media and gov't have been doing for a long time.

'now is the time to buy stocks, now is the time to buy homes'

That is what they say. That is what they said (in about the same way) back in late 1929.
They called it a 'mental recession' and that the fundamentals of industry were strong'

any of this sound familiar?

Hoover 'would not comment on the daily stock market activity'

Hoover and his 'guys' said they were (and they did) make sure the 'banks had enough capitol' to cover ..margins...

Cramer is wrong. He has been wrong about this since 2004 (I watched him)
He was wrong about the homes and prices. Wrong about mortgages.
His 'blowup' was the only thing he was right about, but he never took it very far and never talked about it again.
He was wrong about credit, the market, the recession, etc.

He is good with stocks..but that is where his talent lies.

We are in a not-so-great depression. We need to work on getting out of it, not ignoring it.

That is the difference between drinking kool-aid and leadership.

Right now we need leadership, not another punch bowl.

at least, that is my opinion. I am just a lone soul out here. Take it with a grain of salt.


also, you do not hear much about it, but every single weekend quite a few county and local banks are failing...every weekend, all over the US and the world.

Georgia lost 5 or 6 this last weekend and 4 the weekend before.
California has lost a lot of local banks in the last month.

They are failing in droves, but small enough to be bought up or dismantiled by the FDIC.

just using google news and 'seized fdic' shows a lot.
FDIC has many on their publicly touted list that may fail too.

January is a new president, quarterly reports come out, the throne is passed from one party to another.

My advice is to hold on to your seats, 2009 is gonna be horrible..

you ain't alone, i'm 100% with you on this

[RangerDuke08]

The doomer and gloomer may be the one that buys into Cramer's advice. If investing were so easy everyone would be rich.

[Gottasay]

Fox Business used his missteps to promote their business channel -- LOL

[jimj]

Originally Posted by 58robbo

you ain't alone, i'm 100% with you on this

Would you and thatguy agree that the national media isn't helping this at all? Constant partisan negative reporting instead of factual reporting showing the problems AND possible solutions proposed without any spin tends to influence most (not all as evidenced here) to "feel" in a negative "we're all doomed" way instead of a concerned but hopeful way thereby making failure a self fulfilling prophecy or they'll just switch off and ignore everything including the solutions.
You can't barrage people daily with nothing but negative and not expect them to eventually adopt the same feeling and THAT is when we'll see the massive failures due to people just giving up and hiding under their beds.
Yes there's serious problems but they can be worked through as long as we get someone with cajones to lead and make the tough choices like decrease government spending.

[58robbo]

Originally Posted by jimj

Would you and thatguy agree that the national media isn't helping this at all? Constant partisan negative reporting instead of factual reporting showing the problems AND possible solutions proposed without any spin tends to influence most (not all as evidenced here) to "feel" in a negative "we're all doomed" way instead of a concerned but hopeful way thereby making failure a self fulfilling prophecy or they'll just switch off and ignore everything including the solutions.
You can't barrage people daily with nothing but negative and not expect them to eventually adopt the same feeling and THAT is when we'll see the massive failures due to people just giving up and hiding under their beds.
Yes there's serious problems but they can be worked through as long as we get someone with cajones to lead and make the tough choices like decrease government spending.

sorry jimj i don't buy into that whole media negativity thing. if you ask me, there is more media saying that everything is going to be ok, we've reached the bottom, house sales are up etc. anything to put a positive spin on things.
i also don't buy these things being self fulfilling prophecies. if the US consumer and economy was in a remotely decent shape, real estate would've already been snapped up as would wall street. the reality is that the consumer is maxed out, home equity lines have faded with home prices and unemployment is skyrocketing. that is a viscious cycle as less spending leads to less jobs and vice versa.

[HappyTexan]

IMHO the media has underplayed this big time. They do not report the facts and exagerate what they do report.

This downturn has been going on for over a year. Most people watching and reading about this saw banks and investment companies "rescued" but what they didn't know is that the problems take time to work through the economy. Joe Main Street won't feel the hurt of the Lehman bankruptcy the next day. He's feeling it now. Banks are not lending. They have no money. They gambled it on those toxic derivatives and lost so our government had to anti up the payments to foreign wealth funds.

We are now feeling the effects of the problems caused a year ago. And it won't get any better anytime soon as you are still seeing bailouts being requested. Add to that massive layoffs hitting the papers on a daily basis.

Are you scared yet ? Well you should be because we are headed for some rough waters here.

[Humanoid]

Originally Posted by HappyTexan

Are you scared yet ? Well you should be because we are headed for some rough waters here.

Why should one be scared? Rough waters create opportunity and slap avarice in its face. It bleeds the gluttons of Rentier Capitalism while favoring the productive. It is a time where new business can figuratively slash the throat of the current establishment.

There is really only one group of people that should be scared, those that have more than they deserve.

[HappyTexan]

If you are positioned right for this recession then, yes I believe there will be some excellent opportunities once the debt has been deleveraged.

If you are not positioned for what I think will be a severe recession, then, yes you should be scared and doing something about it if you haven't already so you don't get caught with no job and too much debt and no savings in the bank.