Oil $200 by the end of the year! (taxes, income, investing)

[Philip T]

Originally Posted by GregW

[color=black][font=Verdana]Has anyone considered that the price run up was a world wide marketing experiment to get a real example of a price - demand curve for petroleum products? There is still world wide surplus pumping capacity

Where? Or do you just since the demand downturn?

so the monopolists want to find the price that will maximize revenue to the suppliers without encouraging either alternatives or conservation. I suspect oil will stabilize around $80 – 100 per bbl with gasoline selling around $2 per gallon. This will continue until we return to our profligate ways and are ripe for another “experiment”.

No argument there, but I think this is more observer science -- where the rats in the maze (US and others) are just watched against prior predicable behavior. Not so much where the experiment is "set-up."

The oil cartel is run by some very smart and well trained people that want to maximize their returns on investment and their oil reserves. They know that once the oil is pumped they will have to find some other way to maintain their power and privilege.

You have that right. While our Bush (GW) was getting C's at Harvard on a Masters -- their Bandar "Bush" and Al-Naimi took their studies a little more serious.

Bandar bin Sultan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Ali Al-Naimi - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[floridasandy]

Originally Posted by StoneOne

How can you be an advocate of the free market yet want incentives for private industry? --- Unless of course you by incentives you mean a low tax regime all around and no government subsidies that prop-up inefficient companies that would fail on their own.

that is what i believe. government should not be subsidizing failures, but instead rewarding successes. the success stories are what keep our economy growing and people employed. the biggest issue we will have shortly is increasing unemployment.

[gwynedd1]

Originally Posted by Humanoid

Do tell how you "funnel" money into alternative energy. Which ideas do you support? Should we have a planned economy? You know like the USSR once had?

The bailouts are trying ease the credit markets. Without functioning credit markets not much is going to happen in the business world. You seem to think that if the government instead started to allocating resources things would be better.... Are you an advocate of communism?

Hi Humanoid,

I agree. The best way out of this is tax rebates until we have stable markets. This will keep purchasing power in the hands of the best decision makers, consumers. I don't have much faith in government being able to ferret out the next genius. They are much better congregating round tables of idiots. So simply look to tax the kinds of things they do like driving gas hogs. What they should be doing right now is add a gasoline tax. This will stop stupid consumption and support alternative energy. The revenues may be diverted right back along with the tax rebates to consumers.
This will reward people who use energy sparingly, will be neutral to moderate users, and punish gas hogs. This will also create a buffer against price spikes since there will be the option to lower the tax and buy time. If they set a target price of $4.00 a gallon, they can move the tax to support the price. If prices move beyond it, they can then lower the tax to a $4.00 target. This will moderate price fluctuations and set a target price for alternative energy. Why try to come up with brilliance when just not doing something stupid will do?
Government is in the business of stopping stupidity. Is driving across a train track when a train is coming stupid? Yes, it is, and we have laws to stop it and other forms of complete stupidity. Who know stupidity better? Most of those laws are to protect Congress who would not know a train was coming unless it had a bell on it.

[GregW]

gwennith1 -
Setting a effectively fixed price would have interesting experiment.

[Filet Mignon]

Originally Posted by StoneOne

I haven't seen any evidence of that. I don't think the Big Three would be in DC now begging for money if people were buying their cars.

On a side note, oil has always been inexpensive for society in general, even this last summer. Had oil been truly expensive, it would have been replaced and people would have significantly changed their habits. People altered their habits because oil wasn't as cheap as it used to be, but no significant change took place on the macro level.

I'm not necessarily referring to NEW SUVs & 4x4s. But both my sons and I watch this market very closely, and the big vehicles are both selling, and going up in price, right now.

Also, I think the Big Three have a lot deeper problems than seeing a (for instance) 5% or 10% increase in sales the past two months.


As per driving habits of Americans, I thought I read that there was actually a significant decline in the amount of gasoline being bought, but American consumers, this past summer. Was I imagining that?

[gwynedd1]

Originally Posted by Filet Mignon

I'm not necessarily referring to NEW SUVs & 4x4s. But both my sons and I watch this market very closely, and the big vehicles are both selling, and going up in price, right now.

Also, I think the Big Three have a lot deeper problems than seeing a (for instance) 5% or 10% increase in sales the past two months.


As per driving habits of Americans, I thought I read that there was actually a significant decline in the amount of gasoline being bought, but American consumers, this past summer. Was I imagining that?

Hi Filet Mignon,

When I feel like I am no longer a sidewalk land barren, I would call that change significant. In my suburb I own them, they are all mine except for a few kids on their way to school in the other direction. They will probably come up with an idea to let 14 year olds drive to help auto sales so I may not even have to move over to the right when I walk. I am not out in the boonies either, its in town and near a train into the city.
I gave up on the folding bike on the streets since I was hit by a car last January. I decided not to risk death anymore. I am just glad it only gave me a huge bruise and tore my peddle off. The snow plows also like to shove the snow on the sidewalk as well since only a moron would walk off the fat and save fuel, a moron like me.

[Humanoid]

Originally Posted by floridasandy

that's just another myth that keeps the public from seeing what's really going on.

Feel free to demonstrate that its a myth.

Originally Posted by floridasandy

"Banks actually are lending at record levels. Their commercial and industrial loans, at $1.6 trillion in early November, were up 15% from a year earlier and grew at a 25% annual rate during the past three months, according to weekly Federal Reserve data. Home-equity loans, at $578 billion, were up 21% from a year ago and grew at a 48% annual rate in three months.

Please quote this source, this must be pretty old. Home-equity loans right now are no where near $578, in fact they are almost zero.

Banks were lending at record levels, they aren't anymore. I'm not sure why you want to try to paint a picture that is completely inaccurate. All measures that measure the health of the credit markets went crazy in October and are still rather bad.

[Humanoid]

Originally Posted by gwynedd1

H
This will reward people who use energy sparingly, will be neutral to moderate users, and punish gas hogs. This will also create a buffer against price spikes since there will be the option to lower the tax and buy time.

I don't mind creating a sort of externality charge with higher fuel taxes so long as the Government is not directing what happens with the tax revenue. Its just the idea of the Government "funneling" money into alternative energies that is a bit scary.

[Filet Mignon]

Originally Posted by gwynedd1

Hi Filet Mignon,

When I feel like I am no longer a sidewalk land barren, I would call that change significant. In my suburb I own them, they are all mine except for a few kids on their way to school in the other direction. They will probably come up with an idea to let 14 year olds drive to help auto sales so I may not even have to move over to the right when I walk. I am not out in the boonies either, its in town and near a train into the city.
I gave up on the folding bike on the streets since I was hit by a car last January. I decided not to risk death anymore. I am just glad it only gave me a huge bruise and tore my peddle off. The snow plows also like to shove the snow on the sidewalk as well since only a moron would walk off the fat and save fuel, a moron like me.

Wow, that stinks - at least the part about getting hit on your bike! Sorry to hear that.

[geos]

Originally Posted by Humanoid

I don't mind creating a sort of externality charge with higher fuel taxes so long as the Government is not directing what happens with the tax revenue. Its just the idea of the Government "funneling" money into alternative energies that is a bit scary.

Where should they funnel it, into the pockets of well connected military contractors? Oh, wait, that's been done. If they're going to funnel it somewhere it might as well be where we get a good return on investment here in this country instead of over there killing people. Infrastructure, energy efficiency, public transit, rail service, alt.energy seem like good investments for the future.