Oil $200 by the end of the year! (buy, interest, money)

[Humanoid]

Sorry, couldn't help myself.

Man, oil is getting cheap. Currently at around $46/barrel. I wasn't expecting it to get much less than 70-ish a barrel.

I can fill up my tank with a twenty now.

[baystater]

Originally Posted by Humanoid

Sorry, couldn't help myself.

Man, oil is getting cheap. Currently at around $46/barrel. I wasn't expecting it to get much less than 70-ish a barrel.

I can fill up my tank with a twenty now.

Yep. I thought it was going to head down this year. But to this level...no way did I see this. I though maybe $75 to $80 but not this. I just and example of how irrational the market as a whole is.

But here's the really question for everyone. How long will the lows last? Personally I believe longterm oil has no where else to go but up. And I believe this is no time to relax and give up on electric cars and the like. We need to kick this $h!t now. We been warn at least twice about our addiction to oil and it consequences.
Guys let us put our best foot forward and change how our society transport itself. Yes we can put more alternatives energy sources into play (wind, solar, and even nuclear) But that is not treating our true underlying disease/addiction. Most of the oil we use is for our personal transportation. Now I know some have said here on other treads the need for rail, or other sources of public transportation. Now that nice in theory and it may work over in Europe and other countries. But I have little faith outside of major city that this will be something American will be willing to put up with. So really we need to work toward individualized alternative cars/transportation vehicles to keep our society moving (literally.)

So what's it going to be? Same old same old? With all the consequences the we know are to come? Or are we willing to take a chance in the hopes to change...well..........everything? Yeah I know. There will be consequences seen and unseen with a total change of transportation systems. But with oil...........really it a dead end you can see a mile away.

[Humanoid]

Yeah, its going to be interested to see what happens. This time around the technology is pretty much there, its just a matter of businesses getting behind it.

[cdelena]

Below $70 there is reduced incentive for exploration and alternative research... in fact the capital costs are so high for much of this activity there will be few new projects with the market in this state. The low prices in the ninties help choke off new supply so lets hope it does not happen again.

[Lulu101]

Everyone take your road trips now before it goes back up again;

[Oildog]

I dont think it goes much south of $40. It needs to be above 50 to get the E & P folks going hard again.

[cohdane]

My impression is that a lot of people look at the falling prices and find it reassuring.

But every time I see the price drop again at the corner station, my stomach gets queasy-- I don't understand the market forces at work, but I know something's really really wrong. $4.50+ last summer, $1.79- now. Peptol Bismal shots for me.

[trishguard]

I've heard that the lower the gas prices the stronger the U.S. dollar. I'm not sure why that would be, but I'm all for a strong dollar.

[Philip T]

Maybe think of what is going on as the beach going dry and the ocean going way, way out -- same as what you are supposed to see as the final warning before a Tsunami hits.

We are watching Millions in canceled and delayed projects this week alone (all new energy / gas / oil type stuff) on the design and engineering level -- that will compound out into at least 10's of Millions up to 100's of Millions of $ in new and upgrade projects that will not timely come to pass.

And the guys I work with are not big-time operators. When seen across Houston and the rest of energy centers this will compound into Billions in investment and upgrades not occurring.

Meanwhile, the cheap oil is still being pumped and burned, with depletion of those cheap and easy sources still occurring. There is a long breather now, as demand is dropping well below production drops. Can actually thank the Recession (now that we can call it that) for that demand drop.

But IF demand cannot continue to drop faster than production is falling . . . . that incoming price rebound wave is going to be a big one. The year out risk might make $200 seem friendly.

In short -- I would not go buy that New Gas Guzzler SUV just yet.

Meanwhile, I am sort of guessing we will see 99 cent gas in a while, for a little while.

[StoneOne]

Originally Posted by trishguard

I've heard that the lower the gas prices the stronger the U.S. dollar. I'm not sure why that would be, but I'm all for a strong dollar.

Oil is traded in dollars, but most oil is produced where other currencies are used. If the dollar is strong, those producers get more money for their oil. A weak dollar over the past few years also caused a lot of investors to flee dollar-based investments and put their money in oil, which also helped to drive up the price.