533K Jobs GONE! in November (real estate, property, wage, costs)

[neil0311]

Originally Posted by HappyTexan

I know here in Texas the DoT has lined up all their "road" projects that didn't get budgeted and plan to submit all those for the "infrastructure" work. Now imagine that all the other states are doing the same. The White House will get flooded with submissions for projects.

As you say, most states have a list of unfunded or underfunded projects that have already gone through design and impact studies and could be started rather quickly. I would assume that some of the "infrastructure" projects would be funded by block grants to the states and as long as they met certain criteria, they could be funded and started quickly.

[neil0311]

Originally Posted by killer2021

I guarantee you we will see HIGHER unemployment than the great depression.

I think you're waaaay off base here. Unemployment hit a spike of 24.9% during the great depression, and there were several factors then that are not in evidence now. Scaring people and being alarmist doesn't help but worsens the situation. People need to step back from the ledge and take a breath.

First, you had no FDIC backed deposits in 1929-1933, and many banks went under and took depositor's money with them. That hasn't and won't happen.

Second, you had no umemployment insurance during the depression, so those who were unemployed (24.9% of the workforce in 1933 remaining above 10% through 1941) had no or very little income and their spending stopped completely. Foreclosures reached much higher levels than today.

Third, the dustbowl. Not happening today.

Fourth, protectionism and tariffs increased during the depression. Not happening today.

Fifth, monetary policy was much different during the early 1930's as the money supply contracted and the Fed sat on the sideline.

Sixth, fiscal policy was much different during the latter days of the Hoover administration, as taxes were raised on corporations, individuals, and on imports.

Yes, we're in a tough time. Yes, we may see unemployment go higher. Some say as high as 10% or 11%, but nothing like the nearly 25% in 1933.

The real issue will be how do we come back off this stimulus and keep inflation from being a problem in the aftermath of recovery, and how do we handle this ever skyrocketing national debt. IMO, we have more to fear from the aftermath of this recession then we do from the recession itself. There are already some economists who see a bottom in both the equity and housing markets (leading indicators) and although we may see bad employment numbers for the next few months, they lag the recovery, and we may actually start on the way back while employment remains tight and unemployment numbers continue to increase.

[Woof]

Yes, we're in a tough time. Yes, we may see unemployment go higher. Some say as high as 10% or 11%, but nothing like the nearly 25% in 1933.

What do you think of the fact (often discussed here) that methods of calculating unemployment were changed during the Clinton Administration? It seems that our unemployment rates are about 16% when calculated by the older methods presumably used to get the 25% figure.

[allforcats]

Originally Posted by Woof

What do you think of the fact (often discussed here) that methods of calculating unemployment were changed during the Clinton Administration? It seems that our unemployment rates are about 16% when calculated by the older methods presumably used to get the 25% figure.

Excellent point! Doesn't the discrepancy have to do, at least in part, with no longer counting as "unemployed" those people whose unemployment insurance payments have ended, but who are still jobless? How can they not be counted as "unemployed"??? Well, before I start ranting -- Woof, sir, is that fact part of the changed formulation?

[killer2021]

Originally Posted by neil0311

I think you're waaaay off base here. Unemployment hit a spike of 24.9% during the great depression, and there were several factors then that are not in evidence now. Scaring people and being alarmist doesn't help but worsens the situation. People need to step back from the ledge and take a breath.

First, you had no FDIC backed deposits in 1929-1933, and many banks went under and took depositor's money with them. That hasn't and won't happen.

Second, you had no umemployment insurance during the depression, so those who were unemployed (24.9% of the workforce in 1933 remaining above 10% through 1941) had no or very little income and their spending stopped completely. Foreclosures reached much higher levels than today.

Third, the dustbowl. Not happening today.

Fourth, protectionism and tariffs increased during the depression. Not happening today.

Fifth, monetary policy was much different during the early 1930's as the money supply contracted and the Fed sat on the sideline.

Sixth, fiscal policy was much different during the latter days of the Hoover administration, as taxes were raised on corporations, individuals, and on imports.

Yes, we're in a tough time. Yes, we may see unemployment go higher. Some say as high as 10% or 11%, but nothing like the nearly 25% in 1933.

The real issue will be how do we come back off this stimulus and keep inflation from being a problem in the aftermath of recovery, and how do we handle this ever skyrocketing national debt. IMO, we have more to fear from the aftermath of this recession then we do from the recession itself. There are already some economists who see a bottom in both the equity and housing markets (leading indicators) and although we may see bad employment numbers for the next few months, they lag the recovery, and we may actually start on the way back while employment remains tight and unemployment numbers continue to increase.

The unemployment calculation was a lot more accurate during the great depression. Have you seen what is considered unemployed by the government? If you have been unemployed for longer than 6 months and are no longer collecting UE benefits you aren't considered unemployed anymore but rather a discouraged worker. The unemployment rate isn't no 7% or whatever propaganda number the government spits out. It is more around 15% or so. In many other countries, they don't have anyone unemployed because the government says so.

[HappyTexan]

And they also now calculate a birth/death rate and factor in a number of "new" job creations.
Phantom of course because they cannot verify those new jobs were created but it offsets the number of job losses.

CES Net Birth/Death Model

[Woof]

Originally Posted by allforcats

Excellent point! Doesn't the discrepancy have to do, at least in part, with no longer counting as "unemployed" those people whose unemployment insurance payments have ended, but who are still jobless? How can they not be counted as "unemployed"??? Well, before I start ranting -- Woof, sir, is that fact part of the changed formulation?

Yes, Killer is right. "Discouraged workers" aren't unemployed nowadays, as if joblessness ends once the payments stop.

[neil0311]

You guys are harping on one small statistical technicality, rather than on the substance of the discussion. The sky is falling....the sky is falling.

The claim by killer2021 was that he would "guarantee" that we "will see HIGHER unemployment than the great depression." I'm saying that's alarmist hyperbole, no matter how you calculate the numbers. I'm not saying I see bottom yet, but many do. If you compare 1974, we had more than 500K hit the jobless ranks as the recovery was beginning, and that was in an older and smaller economy.

Were any of you alive in 1974 or 1982? We've had recessions before. The sky isn't falling.

[azoria]

In 1982 I was renting a little house for $135 a month. Even in those bad times it wasn't so hard to scrape together 135 bucks from somewhere.

Now we live in a $1,000 a month apartment (probably about the same square footage as the little house too). It's a helluva a lot harder to squeeze $1,000 a month out of this economy that it was $135 out of 1982.

I would say that this recession is not just any recession. To me this one is far worse than the 70's. The whole cost of living now is so much proportionately higher than it was then. Cost of housing alone has gone up times ten. Wages have not risen times ten.

[Woof]

Originally Posted by neil0311

You guys are harping on one small statistical technicality, rather than on the substance of the discussion. The sky is falling....the sky is falling.

The claim by killer2021 was that he would "guarantee" that we "will see HIGHER unemployment than the great depression." I'm saying that's alarmist hyperbole, no matter how you calculate the numbers. I'm not saying I see bottom yet, but many do. If you compare 1974, we had more than 500K hit the jobless ranks as the recovery was beginning, and that was in an older and smaller economy.

Were any of you alive in 1974 or 1982? We've had recessions before. The sky isn't falling.

I don't remember 500K hitting the jobless ranks in one month, and more than that predicted for the following months.

As some of us keep pointing out, this isn't just another ordinary recession in an ordinary business cycle. Think about what's happening in more than one dimension.