533K Jobs GONE! in November

[Woof]

Originally Posted by texdav

I can rememebr the 70's and htis is nopthign like that except in some regions. When the unemployment as figured today reaches 12% and inflation reaches double digits;then it is as bad. I do think that some regions have near this without the inflation.You will notice the difference when you go out and shop plus loom at restaurants.At least where I live restaurnts are full and the shoping is normal.

The 70s didn't happen in 3 months, texdav! Give it another half year and then tell us about whether things are better or worse than they were then.

[chet everett]

Originally Posted by Woof

The 70s didn't happen in 3 months, texdav! Give it another half year and then tell us about whether things are better or worse than they were then.

If things really do come apart, no need to have your own sqatters rights, just stay fit and practice your sharp shootin' -- there is a dude with at leat 18 months of supplies on Mt. Shasta. Shouldn't too hard to find him -- he's the one with internet access...

[Woof]

I haven't heard of too many survivalists who don't have internet access, Chet. Maybe a few hermits in the woods. But it's not so easy to find a cagey guy who has wireless access!

[neil0311]

Originally Posted by CouponJack

Neill, judging by your posts it seems like you think the bottom is already here and things should start to improve within a couple of months....

This is the most bullish opinion I have heard. I don't agree at all but I wanted to see where you stood....

I don't know if the bottom is here, but I think based on the markets and the bad jobs numbers that it may be within a quarter and we may be flat for another quarter or two, with a recovery in Q3 or Q4 of CY09. I don't buy into the sky is falling, next great depression argument, especially with the Feds planning a trillion in stimulus.

I could be wrong, but that seems to be the consensus among most "experts" that I've heard and read, including the Fed Chairman. My whole point here is that I think people are feeding the wave and adding to the downward pressure with all the over the top negativity. It's good to plan for the worst and hope for the best, but there needs to be some objectivity and realism.

[chet everett]

I like a lot neil's reasoning, especially with regard to the wave of negativity. The "panic" part of any sell-off /freeze is always driven by lack of rationality. The "trough phase" gets slightly shallower as people COLLECTIVELY return to rational behavior...

I don't put a whole lot of trust in the 'experts' opinions of when things will get better, though. Basically most, if not all, of the experts are driven by rather unemotional data collection -- too much of the past (both recent and fairly long ago, like back to the slow down in the end of the Clinton administration) has been driven by emotion. I do not hear people 'confidant' in any date when things will "turn around". I suspect that confidence is going to come from the "bully pulpit" of the new administration, but given how cautious P-E Obama has been to this point, I don't foresee him (or his top aides) to be on the "froward edge" or optimism, though they will not hang back and let anyone else take credit for things getting better / not getting worse...

[Woof]

The irrationality is that of undue optimism, as shown in the ridiculous and ongoing stock market rally.

This one isn't going to go away with happy thoughts. Most PRIVATE expert opinions that I've read have been very negative (private as in not from a public employee), and the word "depression" has been thrown around a lot.

[bbkaren]

Whatever's bolstering the market right now is just gonna make it more painful when it comes back down. It's a hard bottom we're gonna hit.

Must. Buy. More. Flour.

[CouponJack]

Originally Posted by neil0311

I don't know if the bottom is here, but I think based on the markets and the bad jobs numbers that it may be within a quarter and we may be flat for another quarter or two, with a recovery in Q3 or Q4 of CY09. I don't buy into the sky is falling, next great depression argument, especially with the Feds planning a trillion in stimulus.

I could be wrong, but that seems to be the consensus among most "experts" that I've heard and read, including the Fed Chairman. My whole point here is that I think people are feeding the wave and adding to the downward pressure with all the over the top negativity. It's good to plan for the worst and hope for the best, but there needs to be some objectivity and realism.

Neill, I'm not going to take the Chairman's word....Bernanke never believed we had a housing bubble.....this was his words from 2005: "these "(housing Price)increases “‘largely reflect strong economic fundamentals,’ such as strong growth in jobs, incomes and the number of new households". Bernanke didn't even know we were in a bubble and he's the fed chairman...


Again, you think we've bottomed off and you expect a "V" type recovery by the fall of '09?? Wow, you are extremely bullish.

Lastly, I don't see how we can recover when the housing market still has a record amount of inventory nationally. How do you expect prices to level off when there's still so much inventory to absorb? By Magic?? That (housing industry) was what got us into the mess we're in now....

The fundamentals just don't support what your predicting....

[floridasandy]

i agree with coupon jack here. with 1 in 10 houses in foreclosure or delinquent now, and freddie and fannie with foreclosures suspended until mid january, i think this is going to affect a lot of people down the road. hopefully, people will be more responsible with their finances now and get prepared.

[CouponJack]

Originally Posted by floridasandy

i agree with coupon jack here. with 1 in 10 houses in foreclosure or delinquent now, and freddie and fannie with foreclosures suspended until mid january, i think this is going to affect a lot of people down the road. hopefully, people will be more responsible with their finances now and get prepared.

Thats why I don't understand the logic that people feel the housing industry will be fine in a quarter or two. How???

We as a nation have probably the most amount of homes available on the market, EVER. Couple that w/lending standards are extremely tight, so again how do people expect the record amounts of inventory to be absorbed in only a quarter or two?? Can someone please logically explain this to me??

The economy will not improve until housing improves....that's what got us into the mess in the 1st place and it will have to get us out of it....