What Is The Next Driver of The Economy? (debt, companies, tax)

[Bail_Khan]

I'm a welder (still in college), I figure in a post apocolyptic scenario I can always weld steel plates onto cars Escape from New York style. Yes I know there might not be any electricity, there are still ways though.

[chuck22b]

Originally Posted by Humanoid

This is actually an interesting possibility.....although we are decades away from true AI. So not this time around.

With that said, the idea that the "technology driver is gone" is absurd. Both developments in nanotechnology and artificial intelligence will revolutionize production far more than was seen in the industrial revolution.

Computing could be revolutionized by developments in quantum computing, parallel processing (e.g., how the brain processes data) etc.

Of course there is space travel and leaving the planet and terraforming other planets, building city like space stations etc etc.

The future of technology is brighter today then it was 30 years ago..... You just have to use your imagination.

I have to agree with you here Humanoid, Technology is always going to be a driver for growth and it's actually included in economic models.

The interesting thing about technology is that it's something that comes essentially from our imaginations - human capital.

Although China, and the India's may have countless thousands of engineers, scientists, medical students etc., it's human imagination, ingenuity, and capital/funding/capitalism that can make or break a project/tech. The USA, being capitalistic AND democratic has a higher potential to foster innovation because if YOU make/think/build the next greatest thing... you will be greatly awarded. Meanwhile, if you did the same in China, the "government" can take the merits.

That being said, it's never really been about quantity in America. America has always been about the individual... and hopefully, the individual's successes reflects onto the whole. While in most Asian cultures, the individual works for the whole. Which way is better? We'll see in the future. Do great minds and innovators want freedom from repression? Egos are being tested in China.

-chuck22b

[Humanoid]

Originally Posted by HappyTexan

I'm a software engineer and it's a matter of time before I get "replaced" but I'm preparing for that and will leave the field completely when that happens.

Software engineering is often being out sourced because the people are overpaid. This is part of the problem, some middle-income jobs in the US are actually too inflated. At some point, you have to ask yourself why Americans deserve more for doing X just because they are American. The cost of out-sourcing is more than just the difference in pay, but even with the additionally costs some programming doesn't make sense to do here because the people are demanding too high of salaries for doing work that can essentially be done by anybody with modest knowledge of computing.

[HappyTexan]

Originally Posted by Humanoid

Software engineering is often being out sourced because the people are overpaid. This is part of the problem, some middle-income jobs in the US are actually too inflated. At some point, you have to ask yourself why Americans deserve more for doing X just because they are American. The cost of out-sourcing is more than just the difference in pay, but even with the additionally costs some programming doesn't make sense to do here because the people are demanding too high of salaries for doing work that can essentially be done by anybody with modest knowledge of computing.

I would agree with you on most software. Yes, a modest knowledge of software is all that is needed. But there is other software where you want your best people on it..banking, medical and some government projects and anything real time and you want to keep it here in the US for security and IP (Intellectual Property) reasons.

[Humanoid]

Originally Posted by HappyTexan

But there is other software where you want your best people on it..banking, medical and some government projects and anything real time and you want to keep it here in the US for security and IP (Intellectual Property) reasons.

Yes I know, but these jobs aren't being out-sourced in large numbers. The stuff that has been out-sourced is largely low skill programming. But seriously, the number of kids that learn some scripting language and think they should make the big bucks is ridiculous.

I really see shortage of jobs for more high skilled programmers though, in fact its almost the opposite. There is a shortage of high skilled workers. Also, I've noticed that at least to some degree some companies have re-evaluated how they deal with out-sourcing. It some sense out-sourcing has just been a matter of companies getting an upfront discount and paying for it later once someone has to actually manage and update the project.

[GregW]

Penny wise - pound foolish. Why some people think getting a job done quickly and poorly by low paid and less skilled foreigners is a better deal than getting it done correctly for a higher up front cost is good business in beyond me. Oh, wait a minute, I figured it out. The IT manager that hires the cheapest will get recognized and promoted or leave for another job before the mistake is noted. That way the manager will benefit even if the company suffers. How simplistic of me. I thought the manager was actually working for the company that paid his salary but he, in accordance with latest b-school theory, was always working for himself.
[SIZE=3] [/SIZE]
The next driver of the economy looks to be providing goods and services for an ageing population living primarily on pensions and Social Security.

[Chef Boyardee]

No doubt, The Baby Boomers are still here, for the moment, but they will be living on fixed incomes. They say most of them haven't saved very much. So, while it will keep medical jobs going, I don't think it is going to provide a huge and unordinary boost to the overall economy. It's the same with tech. Apple may come out with a cell phone, in the not to distant future, that has all the power of The Mini Mac, but that isn't going to create another dot com bubble. And while nano-tech may tell you when to apply a second coat of stain to your deck, I don't think it will cause another housing bubble.

[GregW]

With the backlog of repairs to our infrastructure finally being considered getting a degree in civil or mechanical engineering and working in the heavy equipment field might provide the security required pay off the college loans.

Humanoid insists in his preference for the free market to provide the incentives for educational choices. These incentives only apply to individuals that want to maximize their income and not to the people that want to do something more useful than selling securities or real estate. I prefer the government take an active role by subsidizing education in the fields that will do the most good. Areas like Engineering, Education, Environmental Science instead of Business and Political Science. The government could then put our money to use hiring the former to create a way out of our petroleum addiction and repair our decaying infrastructure before more bridges fall down.

We need to develop an ethic that rewards the individual for doing public works instead of rewarding them for working to make rich people even richer. The latter ethic is the ethic of a Monopoly game where eventually one player owns all. This is not a desirable situation for a society.

Don't bother asking. My economoics are Socialist.

[Humanoid]

Originally Posted by GregW

I prefer the government take an active role by subsidizing education in the fields that will do the most good. Areas like Engineering, Education, Environmental Science instead of Business and Political Science.

How does the government know when enough is enough? It won't and that is the problem. It could push too many people into these fields and that would 1.) Push wages down for the supported sectors, 2.) Hurt the other sectors of the economy due to a restricted labor pool.

The free markets are much better at answer then "when is enough" question. But admittedly there is a problem in our school system (and culture) where its difficult for people to go back to school. You are expected to go to school pick something and do it for the rest of your life, but now that isn't always realistic. I would much rather allow the markets decide what is important while supporting education programs for working adults.

Also, just to note. The argument made by classical economists is that essentially the world where everyone is selfishly pursuing their goals economically is the best possible world. They would largely agree with the things more socialism lending folks value, what they disagree about is how these things are best achieved. Hence, to argue against this view point you need to show that this does not result in the "best possible world".

[20yrsinBranson]

Originally Posted by Humanoid

This is actually an interesting possibility.....although we are decades away from true AI. So not this time around.

With that said, the idea that the "technology driver is gone" is absurd. Both developments in nanotechnology and artificial intelligence will revolutionize production far more than was seen in the industrial revolution.

I don't agree with you. The more sophisticated the mechanism the more suseptible it is to failure. Ultimately it will fail and will need to be repaired/replaced. By other droids? Not necessarily, the possibility exists that they all could fail simultaneously. We are all on our computers. Having delt with them, can you deny that any of this is true? Technology works great for a while and then it comes crashing down around our feet.

Would you trust your life support to your computer? I think not.

20yrsinBranson