What Is The Next Driver of The Economy? (foreclosure, credit, interest)

[Chef Boyardee]

"The Old Drivers

As we discussed in a previous column, the old drivers of the economy and the stock market, listed below, are now gone:
The demographic driver is gone, as the baby boomer bulge has passed
The technology driver (which increased productivity) is gone, as new investment is curtailed and current technology has matured
Tax rates will not be used to provide stimulus
Credit is now restricted, in strict contrast to its ubiquitous presence
We wondered in that article what the new drivers might be, as no one seemed to know."

Briefing.com: The Storm is Ending -- Intraday Swing Calming

[Philip T]

Survival -- the basics . . . .

Food
Minimal decent shelter
Fuel and Power -- again just basic minimal survival.

Most else will be probably be viewed as luxury.

[chet everett]

Clean water is going to be hard to come by.

Sewage will lap at your feet.

Vermin will infect your undergarments.

Choking smoke from the fires of hell will fill the air.

But we'll have the 'net.

And then the machines will achieve consciousness and get rid of us.

Or maybe some people just are a bit too into hyberbole...

[Humanoid]

Originally Posted by chet everett

And then the machines will achieve consciousness and get rid of us.

This is actually an interesting possibility.....although we are decades away from true AI. So not this time around.

With that said, the idea that the "technology driver is gone" is absurd. Both developments in nanotechnology and artificial intelligence will revolutionize production far more than was seen in the industrial revolution.

Computing could be revolutionized by developments in quantum computing, parallel processing (e.g., how the brain processes data) etc.

Of course there is space travel and leaving the planet and terraforming other planets, building city like space stations etc etc.

The future of technology is brighter today then it was 30 years ago..... You just have to use your imagination.

[StoneOne]

Once the tipping point is past and alternative energy becomes cheap relative to fossil fuels, that will be revolutionary for the simple reason that it will grow progressively cheaper and will not be subject to the factors that affect oil and gas prices (it's unlikely that locally based algae plants for biodiesel, for example, will be controlled by cartels or subject to investment speculation - or be dependent upon the value of any particular currency).

We're probably quite a ways away from that tipping point, though.

[58robbo]

Originally Posted by Chef Boyardee

"The Old Drivers

As we discussed in a previous column, the old drivers of the economy and the stock market, listed below, are now gone:
The demographic driver is gone, as the baby boomer bulge has passed
The technology driver (which increased productivity) is gone, as new investment is curtailed and current technology has matured
Tax rates will not be used to provide stimulus
Credit is now restricted, in strict contrast to its ubiquitous presence
We wondered in that article what the new drivers might be, as no one seemed to know."

Briefing.com: The Storm is Ending -- Intraday Swing Calming

the next driver will be huge government spending in infrastructure, military and alternative energy. while i would have supported this before, esp in the area of alternative energy, i've now come to the realization that govt will distort the market, encourage some things and drown others. there will be astronomical mal investment and poor use of capital (white elephants everywhere). in addition, we will become increasingly dependent on govt for our livelyhood.
loss of economic freedom in my book equates to loss of freedom regardless of the intentions

[tallrick]

Originally Posted by 58robbo

the next driver will be huge government spending in infrastructure, military and alternative energy. while i would have supported this before, esp in the area of alternative energy, i've now come to the realization that govt will distort the market, encourage some things and drown others. there will be astronomical mal investment and poor use of capital (white elephants everywhere). in addition, we will become increasingly dependent on govt for our livelyhood.
loss of economic freedom in my book equates to loss of freedom regardless of the intentions

We have been heading in that direction for decades, and I agree this is the dismal future we face. What a shame we lost our economy to dirtbags.

[cpg35223]

Auto repo and foreclosures.

[Chef Boyardee]

I think nationalistic trade policies could put an end to off-shoring and start a trend of "re-shoring" jobs and industries. That could create a new "boom" in consumer and business spending as well as tax revenue. It could also stimulate new innovation, leading to improvements in productivity and prices (provided that wasn't stifled by over-regulation and quotas).

[Chef Boyardee]

Originally Posted by 58robbo

the next driver will be huge government spending in infrastructure, military and alternative energy. while i would have supported this before, esp in the area of alternative energy, i've now come to the realization that govt will distort the market, encourage some things and drown others. there will be astronomical mal investment and poor use of capital (white elephants everywhere). in addition, we will become increasingly dependent on govt for our livelyhood.
loss of economic freedom in my book equates to loss of freedom regardless of the intentions

I think that would probably cause another Great Depression.