Gold about to go crazy for a bit (insurance, 2009, buy)

[Thatguywho]

If history is any indicator, gold will boom and will also signal the final last gasp of investing and making cash for a bit.

As with every other commodity and stock and bailout and political move, gold now has started its 'grass roots' of most major media outlets and their 'experts' talking about gold going up really high in 2009.

It really started the end of november with the gold will be 1000 experts.
Then it was some wild guys saying 2000.
Then it was more relaxed guys saying 1200
Now it is more relaxed guys saying 'maybe 2000' an ounce.

Now, what in all the past efforts, this has caused people to go willy nilly 'all in' with their cash. For homes, for oil, for a candidate for office, for bailouts, for certain stocks, and now comes the gold rush.

All those companies that bought gold earlier and are still buying it up want to unload it. By making the demand for it, gold will soon start shooting up, higher than it has EVER been before. As this happens us regular folk will jump right in as a hedge against the economy falling apart.

Oh yea, along with the gold guys, comes all the side bar quotes about severe recession and possible depression. This is from people who weree saying the whole time 'no recession, buy stocks!!'

Now, as gold goes higher and higher and the big guys who have tons of it sell it to us investors...well... eventually they will sell off what they want to (probably all of it) at some ungodly cash price.

Then it will happen....all the gold with speculators...no one to buy. Starts dropping. No one to buy.
Later, I say April, it will be done, fallen and people will have wonderful gold coins worth 100 or 200 an ounce versus the 1200 or 1500 or more they bought it for in jan and feb, maybe march.

It should fall pretty fast as it is not like oil or food. It is a chunk of metal that sits in your drawer.

If you had bought gold at 1500 an ounce back in 1908 (assuming you where crazy enough to pay for it) you could actually look at breaking even 100 years later.

If you buy it in a few months for 1500, I think you may be holding onto it a very long time before it gets that high again. A very long time.

So I say, short term, yea, go ahead and gamble. Looks like they will pull a small boom out of their hats. Specualtive boom. Sell when it is starting and going up. But DO NOT buy gold as a long term investment.

I would be happier with rubles since the exchange rate is so groovy right now and they can only go up as our currency goes down.....

/flame on

[trishguard]

I'm so glad you are posting here. I only have one gold coin that I bought several years ago. I paid $250 bucks for it. That was more than enough for me. lol I was tempted to buy as I'm worried about the dollar but I remembered your advice and will stay far, far away.

[Thatguywho]

Originally Posted by trishguard

I'm so glad you are posting here. I only have one gold coin that I bought several years ago. I paid $250 bucks for it. That was more than enough for me. lol I was tempted to buy as I'm worried about the dollar but I remembered your advice and will stay far, far away.

if you sell it during the final commodity boom, you will be talking about how you bought it for 250 and sold it for 1500. That is good money.
But either way, it is gambling and hard to risk anything other than for a safe...

My dad bought gold back when the boom was on in the 80s. Bought 40,000 worth of gold and silver at 700 an ounce gold, forgot silver, it was high though.
He kept reading these articles in the news about gold just going up and how the economy and dollar....well... you get the point. It got to like 850 and then plummetted. He ended up selling the gold for its bottom price a few years later when he gave up.

Lost most of that money. He would have had to wait 25 years or so to get it back up to 700 again... and hey....it is just over 700 now. *smack*

I wish I had bought it at 250. That is good short term gain.

Of course, this is my opinion and you should all talk to your expert investors before doing anything......

[trishguard]

I doubt a coin/gold dealer would be dumb enough to buy it from me.

[sterlinggirl]

If you buy it in a few months for 1500, I think you may be holding onto it a very long time before it gets that high again. A very long time.

So I say, short term, yea, go ahead and gamble. Looks like they will pull a small boom out of their hats. Specualtive boom. Sell when it is starting and going up. But DO NOT buy gold as a long term investment.

I think you hit the nail right on the head...

[sterlinggirl]

Originally Posted by trishguard

I doubt a coin/gold dealer would be dumb enough to buy it from me.

Sure they will. They'll just give you a little less than spot price, and then they'll sell it for a little more than spot price. I hear actual coins are in short supply, so they might be really eager to pick one up.

You could also sell it on Craigslist....

[tallrick]

I have noticed that physical gold has been in short supply and the "spot" price is far below what you can buy it for. I would not mind picking up some second-hand gold as long as I can verify its purity by a density/displacement or electronic test. Gold in 1970 at 33 dollars an ounce was a great way to preserve wealth up to this day. The same money sitting in fed notes under a mattress would have lost much of its value.

[Nor'Eastah]

Originally Posted by sterlinggirl

I hear actual coins are in short supply, so they might be really eager to pick one up.

You are 100% correct that "actual coins" are in short supply. Gold is tough to get; silver is nearly impossible to get. And neither is selling at anywhere near Comex-derived 'spot' prices.

But don't take my word for it. Call around to coin dealers, and ask. In addition to a hefty premium, you'll be put on a 6-8 week waiting list. You could buy some on eBay, but the premiums are even higher there.

The precious metals have moved into strong hands. These people will not sell until prices are much higher. There is a concerted effort, among gold and silver bugs, to force a Comex delivery default. They know the shorts simply don't have the real metal to deliver.

I would not invest in "paper" gold, however (ETF's, futures).

[TexianPatriot]

Bought 20 silver eagles from APMEX during the Christmas sale. Got them for $12 and change per ounce. With shipping, I paid about $270. I've ordered 40 ounces of silver total and had no problems (other than their shipping costs due to mandatory insurance).

[mojo_1979]

Originally Posted by Thatguywho

If you had bought gold at 1500 an ounce back in 1908 (assuming you where crazy enough to pay for it) you could actually look at breaking even 100 years later.

Gold at $1500 in 1908? Please check your facts.

Gold was approximately $20.67 an ounce in 1908. If you bought back then, you're up about 4000% over the past 100 years. Not too bad IMO.