commerical real estate (2009, buy, properties, closing)

[TexianPatriot]

when is that bubble gunna pop? My guess would be February or March 2009. Fourth quarter numbers are gunna be ugly and I think alot of places wanted to get through the holidays before closing down.

[Oildog]

Yep. Going to be a lot of vacant strip malls that were overbuilt to begin with.

[chet everett]

Of course there was overbuilding of strip malls and a lot of other relatively easy to lease property. Lending rates for developers were low for a long time. They took advantage of that by building. It is not a crime -- in fact to all the contractors that were able to expand their business it was a HUGE plus.

I suspect some of the mall owners will go bust. If they did not have reserves sufficient to get them over the INEVITABLE ups and downs of vacancies and such they are some operators with better balance sheets and more conservative outlook that WILL swallow 'em up.

If the properties are in areas with solid access to consumers there will probably be some retailers willing to relocate and deals will be cut. In other cases, where the malls were marginal to begin with, the vacancy cycle will be much harder to weather. It would not surprise me to see some properties plowed under, maybe redeveloped. There are well run integrated retailers that would be happy to buy land at low enough prices and then have a mega-WalMart or something locate on the site. The possibilities are endless for people with some cash and willingness to take some risk. From low priced "Dollar Store" to all sorts of non-retail use (healthcare, office, service, perhaps in ultra small scale 'peaker plants') or even muncipal / non-proftis creating greenspace I can envision all kinds of things that malls would be usefull for...

[yachtcare]

Originally Posted by chet everett

I can envision all kinds of things that malls would be usefull for...

Hospitals
Universities
Prison compounds
Homeless shelters

But before recovery, the illness has to run it's course first, before any of the alternative uses can be viable.(except maybe the last two)

[FarNorthDallas]

The strip mall near my house has been mostly empty for over 20 years. The owners are so picky about what is there. They would rather it sit empty than having something low brow like a convenience store.

[killer2021]

Just look at any industrial or commercial property reit. The bubble has already burst. It just takes time for RE to let the loses flow through. It isn't like the stock market where it is an instant sell.

Just look at prologis (PLD) they are on the of largest owners of industrial properties and their stock is down nearly 75% from a year ago.