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Unread 09-16-2010, 09:33 PM
 
Location: San Leandro
4,199 posts, read 3,856,725 times
Reputation: 2822
Quote:
Originally Posted by BluSpark View Post
Are you a Republican party hack? That is a rhetorical question.

My initial post in this thread did not contain a quesiton mark but it was meant as a serious inquiry.

The RCP link you provided has classified the race as a toss up. So that MOST likely means the race is within the margin of error in most of the polls RCP monitors. Though I will say the trend favors Whitman.

and the bold in red would be my point
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Unread 09-16-2010, 09:35 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles
749 posts, read 857,965 times
Reputation: 401
Quote:
Originally Posted by FresnoFacts View Post
Clicking the RCP links brings up more info including margin of error. 2 of the 3 have Whitman by a number beyond the margin of error.

Fox News/POR-Rasmussen: Whitman 49% Brown 43% margin of error +/- 3 percentage points
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/091410_CApoll1.pdf

CNN/Time: Whitman 48% Brown 46% margin of error +/- 3.5 percentage points
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/im.../topstate1.pdf

Survey USA: Whitman 47% Brown 40% margin of error +/- 4.2 percentage points
SurveyUSA Election Poll #17035
Thanks FresnoFacts: I am not one to be afraid of the facts. That is a favorable sign for Whitman. But there is still plenty of time.....
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Unread 09-16-2010, 09:36 PM
 
Location: San Leandro
4,199 posts, read 3,856,725 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by californio sur View Post
Actually Brown challenged Whitman to regular debates but she declined and only agreed to one debate in late October [just a few weeks before the election]. Whitman rarely allows press conferences or open discussions and rightly so after her disastrous interview on KFI radio here in LA. Conservative shock jocks, 'Ken and John' crucified Whitman over her dishonesty.

I wouldn't get too excited about these poll numbers; you might end up very disappointed.
LoL i am not worried, but you seem to feel the need to convince yourself everything is okay. LoL sorry buddy but i would not count on it, megs gonna win by atleast 5 percentage points.
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Unread 09-16-2010, 09:40 PM
 
1,687 posts, read 3,338,619 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BluSpark View Post
Thanks FresnoFacts: I am not one to be afraid of the facts. That is a favorable sign for Whitman. But there is still plenty of time.....
The NY Times tracking charts shows how their model has forecast the election since January. They currently predict Whitman too.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/fo...nor/california

But look at the charts. To me it appears Brown had the lead in their forecast all summer in spite of Whitman's ad spending. But in late August (people coming back from vacation and paying attention??) their models shifted to Whitman.
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Unread 09-16-2010, 09:44 PM
 
Location: Pasadena
7,413 posts, read 2,749,207 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCal Dude View Post
LoL i am not worried, but you seem to feel the need to convince yourself everything is okay. LoL sorry buddy but i would not count on it, megs gonna win by atleast 5 percentage points.
You want to bet? Don't forget that Republicans are less than 30% of the registered voters and unless Democrats are willing to vote for Whitman or any Republican it will be a typical election. Even Schwarzenegger is unwilling to endorse Whitman as well as very conservative Republican leaders. Polls vary based on exposure but election day is almost 2 months away and I think you may be a lot less excited by then. But who knows, Whitman could win though the probability is not high.
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Unread 09-16-2010, 09:44 PM
 
1,687 posts, read 3,338,619 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by californio sur View Post
Actually Brown challenged Whitman to regular debates but she declined and only agreed to one debate in late October [just a few weeks before the election].
That has changed and now there are several debates scheduled (except for Southern California).

Sept. 28 at the University of California, Davis
Oct. 12 at Dominican University in San Rafael

And in Fresno a Whitman/Brown debate will be Oct. 2 at California State University, Fresno.

The Fresno Bee and Univision Television Group are the local co-sponsors. Univision will translate it into Spanish and show on their stations around the state.
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Unread 09-16-2010, 09:46 PM
 
Location: Pasadena
7,413 posts, read 2,749,207 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FresnoFacts View Post
That has changed and now there are several debates scheduled (except for Southern California).

Sept. 28 at the University of California, Davis
Oct. 12 at Dominican University in San Rafael

And in Fresno a Whitman/Brown debate will be Oct. 2 at California State University, Fresno.

The Fresno Bee and Univision Television Group are the local co-sponsors. Univision will translate it into Spanish and show on their stations around the state.
Good news!
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Unread 09-16-2010, 09:48 PM
 
1,687 posts, read 3,338,619 times
Reputation: 766
Quote:
Originally Posted by californio sur View Post
You want to bet? Don't forget that Republicans are less than 30% of the registered voters and unless Democrats are willing to vote for Whitman or any Republican it will be a typical election.
Or if the Dem voters are not motivated and do not even show up. That will be a real problem in this election for the Dems.

And notice in the Survey USA poll they have 20% of Democrats currently saying they prefer Whitman over Brown. Only 8% of Republicans show a preference for Brown.

Then there are the independents, the real power in modern California elections (neither party can win without winning the independents). Survey USA has it Whitman 59% Brown 31% among decline-to-state/independents.
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Unread 09-16-2010, 09:50 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles
749 posts, read 857,965 times
Reputation: 401
Quote:
Originally Posted by FresnoFacts View Post
The NY Times tracking charts shows how their model has forecast the election since January. They currently predict Whitman too.
California Governor - FiveThirtyEight Election Forecasts and Polls - Election 2010 - The New York Times

But look at the charts. To me it appears Brown had the lead in their forecast all summer in spite of Whitman's ad spending. But in late August (people coming back from vacation and paying attention??) their models shifted to Whitman.
That can't be very comforting to the Brown campaign.

That said, there was the Republican state convention in late August. I've heard some references to a bounce for Whitman resulting from that. But I am not aware of state conventions playing such a large role in races for Governor.
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Unread 09-16-2010, 09:52 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles
749 posts, read 857,965 times
Reputation: 401
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCal Dude View Post
and the bold in red would be my point
Well, then next time just make your point instead of being a douche when someone raises a legitmate point about something you posted.
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