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Unread 10-29-2010, 03:21 PM
 
Location: Sacramento
13,290 posts, read 14,551,381 times
Reputation: 4922
Default Not So Fast - Rasmussen Poll Shows Governor Race Now a Toss Up

Democrat Jerry Brown holds a slightly smaller lead over Republican Meg Whitman in California’s gubernatorial race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Brown picking up 49% support, while Whitman draws the vote from 45%.

These numbers move the race from Leans Democrat back to a Toss-Up.



Election 2010: California Governor - Rasmussen Reports™
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Unread 10-29-2010, 03:25 PM
 
Location: Pasadena
7,413 posts, read 2,749,207 times
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Does anybody know or remember what the polls were saying before the 2008 election? It seems that polls are variable and one survey doesn't necessarily match another and they all seem to change week to week. But overall it appears every poll indicates that Brown is leading; some by 4-5 points while others have him ahead by over 10 points.
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Unread 10-29-2010, 03:30 PM
 
Location: Sacramento
13,290 posts, read 14,551,381 times
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True, polls have some variance.

Rasmussen has a great historical track record for accuracy because they have a structure to sort out who is a more likely voter, vs who has a sentiment but will likely sit home.

What this shows me is that Brown indeed has a lead, but that the Whitman supporters are more likely to show up and vote. This isn't inconsistent to what is happening nationally, in this cycle there is a segment of "Democrat leaning" voter that is likely to just decline to participate.

Will it be enough to swing the election over to Whitman? Possibly so.
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Unread 10-29-2010, 03:34 PM
 
2,459 posts, read 2,494,699 times
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Toss up eh?
































































































































































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Unread 10-29-2010, 03:45 PM
 
Location: Oxygen Ln. AZ
8,103 posts, read 9,558,090 times
Reputation: 4132
I recall polls indicating that Swartzehooey did not have a chance and look what happened.
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Unread 10-29-2010, 04:16 PM
 
Location: Escondido, CA
1,504 posts, read 3,248,005 times
Reputation: 800
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewToCA View Post
Rasmussen has a great historical track record for accuracy because they have a structure to sort out who is a more likely voter, vs who has a sentiment but will likely sit home.
Nope, it really doesn't. Rasmussen has a consistent track record of being biased to the right.
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Unread 10-29-2010, 04:25 PM
 
1,476 posts, read 895,431 times
Reputation: 690
Quote:
Originally Posted by NewToCA View Post
True, polls have some variance.

Rasmussen has a great historical track record for accuracy because they have a structure to sort out who is a more likely voter, vs who has a sentiment but will likely sit home.

What this shows me is that Brown indeed has a lead, but that the Whitman supporters are more likely to show up and vote. This isn't inconsistent to what is happening nationally, in this cycle there is a segment of "Democrat leaning" voter that is likely to just decline to participate.

Will it be enough to swing the election over to Whitman? Possibly so.
I have heard that also about the Rasmussen polls. Doesn't really matter how many people are for Brown, if they don't show up to vote, Meg will win! I have also heard that historically more Republicans than Democrats will turn out in inclement weather so I am hoping for rain next Tuesday!
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Unread 10-29-2010, 04:52 PM
 
Location: Monterey County, CA
3,532 posts, read 6,030,100 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GottaBMe View Post
I have heard that also about the Rasmussen polls. Doesn't really matter how many people are for Brown, if they don't show up to vote, Meg will win! I have also heard that historically more Republicans than Democrats will turn out in inclement weather so I am hoping for rain next Tuesday!
LOL... Fair weather voters eh. I say let it Rain! Haha...

It's going to be really funny if Whitman wins after all those saying Brown will win by a landslide. He just doesn't seem like a landslide kind of guy to me, I don't know. But stranger things have happened here in California. Our politics have always been colorful to say the least. I think when we are called the land of fruits and nuts much of the time it relates our political appointees - moonbeam being no exception.

Derek
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Unread 10-29-2010, 05:43 PM
 
434 posts, read 411,200 times
Reputation: 459
Geez

You mean all the daily (hourly) postings about a Brown win while disparaging Whitman might not work? How can that be? Well there's 96 hours left. Libs get busy! Suppose you can convince anyone on this forum to change their vote?
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Unread 10-29-2010, 06:48 PM
 
Location: Pasadena
7,413 posts, read 2,749,207 times
Reputation: 1802
Quote:
Originally Posted by GottaBMe View Post
I have heard that also about the Rasmussen polls. Doesn't really matter how many people are for Brown, if they don't show up to vote, Meg will win! I have also heard that historically more Republicans than Democrats will turn out in inclement weather so I am hoping for rain next Tuesday!
The forecast for southern California on Tuesday, Nov 2 is for sun & temps from near 80 at the beach to low 90's inland. So maybe it will be too warm for the old Republicans to come out of their holes.
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