Calif. Economy: 2011 Forecast to Grow Faster than the Nation (Los Angeles: sale, house prices)
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Ok, UCLA predicts 167K new jobs and Chapman 167K in 2011.
Quote:
"The growth sectors in manufacturing are computers and electronics, medical devices and aerospace components," said Jerry Nickelsburg, senior economist of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. "Those are proportionally California export items." -- LA Times
Of course some forum members predict this is foolishness and things will continue to get worse. UCLA's senior economist doesn't really know what he talking about. Instead he is spreading lies to fool people into complacency. Hmm... I look forward to coming back to this one next year.
Ok, UCLA predicts 167K new jobs and Chapman 167K in 2011.
Of course some forum members predict this is foolishness and things will continue to get worse. UCLA's senior economist doesn't really know what he talking about. Instead he is spreading lies to fool people into complacency. Hmm... I look forward to coming back to this one next year.
Derek
That is exactly the purpose of the prediction or announcement. They want people to think our economy is getting better so they will stop complaining and allow the politicians to kick the can down the road a little longer. This tactic has been going on since Obama became President. Remember the green shoots? Remember the economists well over a year ago declaring the recession was over and the stimulus had worked? Same old story, same old tactic.
Did you watched Ben Bernanke on 60 minutes last Sunday? What was his answer when asked if we could see another dip? The interview is available on the CBS website.
Do you see Obama wants/needs to extend unemployment insurance for 13 more months?
Do you see the dismal outlook for real estate market?
These are real signs on the economy that you can use to predict and not this baseless crap like aerospace is going to grow in California. I know aerospace and its contracting in 2011 drastically with the existing cuts and Obama has several other programs on the cutting board.
That is exactly the purpose of the prediction or announcement. They want people to think our economy is getting better so they will stop complaining and allow the politicians to kick the can down the road a little longer. This tactic has been going on since Obama became President. Remember the green shoots? Remember the economists well over a year ago declaring the recession was over and the stimulus had worked? Same old story, same old tactic.
Did you watched Ben Bernanke on 60 minutes last Sunday? What was his answer when asked if we could see another dip? The interview is available on the CBS website.
Do you see Obama wants/needs to extend unemployment insurance for 13 more months?
Do you see the dismal outlook for real estate market?
These are real signs on the economy that you can use to predict and not this baseless crap like aerospace is going to grow in California. I know aerospace and its contracting in 2011 drastically with the existing cuts and Obama has several other programs on the cutting board.
That sounds a bit like a conspiracy theory.
But that as it may, our nation's economy is still in trouble. No one is questioning that. The deficit is growing as both sides, left & right, strike the latest deal in Washington. The rich get more tax breaks while the unemployed keep their benefits. So basically everyone gets money in their pockets right now - a win/win right? Except the federal deficit continues to grow unchecked as a result.
However if you read the OP article this thread references it is not claiming 2011 will be the year in which all economic problems magicially disapear including the state and federal deficits. The only claim is that there will be some improvement in the jobs area for California, specifically that losses will decline and instead of being in the red another year we will see (some) gains. Whether or not that will happen is still to be seen. But no, all problems will not go away including those for some sectors in greater trouble like the construction trade. Rather CA is on the road to recovery, rocky as it may be.
Quote:
Economists agree that even as the GDP grows slightly, job creation is a long way off. Part of the problem is the surfeit of workers in trades such as construction, who aren't able to find other jobs.
In past recessions, displaced construction workers might go into other industries, such as manufacturing. But increasing automation and outsourcing have eliminated many of those manufacturing jobs, UCLA economist Edward Leamer said. That means that even if GDP grows, unemployment could still remain high.
"As many as 5 million workers are not likely to be reemployed in construction, manufacturing and retail," Leamer wrote. "Those displaced workers are likely to have a difficult time finding jobs elsewhere." -- LA Times
Derek
Last edited by MtnSurfer; 12-08-2010 at 10:20 AM..
That is exactly the purpose of the prediction or announcement. They want people to think our economy is getting better so they will stop complaining and allow the politicians to kick the can down the road a little longer. This tactic has been going on since Obama became President. Remember the green shoots? Remember the economists well over a year ago declaring the recession was over and the stimulus had worked? Same old story, same old tactic.
Did you watched Ben Bernanke on 60 minutes last Sunday? What was his answer when asked if we could see another dip? The interview is available on the CBS website.
Do you see Obama wants/needs to extend unemployment insurance for 13 more months?
Do you see the dismal outlook for real estate market?
These are real signs on the economy that you can use to predict and not this baseless crap like aerospace is going to grow in California. I know aerospace and its contracting in 2011 drastically with the existing cuts and Obama has several other programs on the cutting board.
Don9: All due respect...but I think you are looking too hard for a conspiracy.
These forecasters have NOTHING to do with Obama or the Fed. Chapman is a PRIVATE university. Besides...these forecasters are more interested in being right than wrong. Their reputations and careers matter more to them then joining with the govt to "fool" the people.
Don9: All due respect...but I think you are looking too hard for a conspiracy.
These forecasters have NOTHING to do with Obama or the Fed. Chapman is a PRIVATE university. Besides...these forecasters are more interested in being right than wrong. Their reputations and careers matter more to them then joining with the govt to "fool" the people.
OK, then point me to the data that suggests the California economy will improve next year.
OK, then point me to the data that suggests the California economy will improve next year.
There is none. If the Fed's prediction of 150,000 plus new hires didn't pan out for the month of November, what makes a UCLA professor's forecast any better. All we can do is wait and see what unfolds next year.
There is none. If the Fed's prediction of 150,000 plus new hires didn't pan out for the month of November, what makes a UCLA professor's forecast any better. All we can do is wait and see what unfolds next year.
True, we can wait and see or we can analyze the data that does exist. Large companies can and do forecast sales and growth based on existing and pending contracts as well as product development to market activity. These large companies would have already released this information for 2011, especially since many companies started fiscal year 2011 in October.
You are right though that the data showing an improved economy does not exist.
There is none. If the Fed's prediction of 150,000 plus new hires didn't pan out for the month of November, what makes a UCLA professor's forecast any better. All we can do is wait and see what unfolds next year.
You are comparing the Fed being off in ONE month (November) to an economic forecast for ONE FULL YEAR (2011).
ONE MONTH is not a trend. Besides nobody here is claiming we are in for a BOOM. At best the Chapman and UCLA forecasts are saying we'll have MODEST growth in 2011 (above the national average). But "growing modeslty" sure beats falling off a cliff like we were in 2009.
The Fed has quite clearly stated the tough times we are facing. See here for a story on their recent assessment of the ugly unemployment picture.
You are comparing the Fed being off in ONE month (November) to an economic forecast for ONE FULL YEAR (2011).
ONE MONTH is not a trend. Besides nobody here is claiming we are in for a BOOM. At best the Chapman and UCLA forecasts are saying we'll have MODEST growth in 2011 (above the national average). But "growing modeslty" sure beats falling off a cliff like we were in 2009.
The Fed has quite clearly stated the tough times we are facing. See here for a story on their recent assessment of the ugly unemployment picture.
The Fed and economists predicted 150,000 plus new hires for November BASED on a the trend but it didn't pan out. This supports my argument that forecasting the state of the economy is unpredictable. am I the only one who thinks that we need to get off our butts and find ways to get the economy going instead of waiting for some good news about the economy improving?
I agree that the economy is slowly recovering, but I wouldn't hold my breath at this point. We still have a ways to go.
Last edited by TimC2462; 12-08-2010 at 01:48 PM..
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