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Old 12-29-2010, 10:25 PM
Status: "get me out of the central coast!" (set 17 days ago)
 
Location: Pismo Beach, CA
3,894 posts, read 6,408,294 times
Reputation: 862

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What's everyone's opinion on Jerry Brown and his future for California? Do you think in 2-3 years the government will have money again and be hiring people? My profession will be very closely tied the government and thus it would help if the government would be hiring. I could look into private companies, but I see there being more jobs with the gov. I am looking into county government and CalTrans.
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Old 12-29-2010, 11:18 PM
 
Location: Sacramento
13,476 posts, read 16,351,889 times
Reputation: 5319
Not really, I suspect that the local economy and budget will be a little better than it is today. However, I don't see this economy having a strong bounce back, at least not within the next few years.

The financial hole is too deep.
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Old 12-29-2010, 11:32 PM
 
Location: Monterey County, CA
3,718 posts, read 7,101,765 times
Reputation: 3224
Quote:
Originally Posted by the city View Post
What's everyone's opinion on Jerry Brown and his future for California? Do you think in 2-3 years the government will have money again and be hiring people? My profession will be very closely tied the government and thus it would help if the government would be hiring. I could look into private companies, but I see there being more jobs with the gov. I am looking into county government and CalTrans.
Have you considered the Federal Gov't. While everyone is effected by this economy working for the Fed tends to be much more stable than the State, especially in CA's case. I have seen this from personal experience and with friends who are currently working for the state. They are receiving furloughs, IOUs, etc... It's sad when they work so hard to make our state a better place and end up with the shorter end of the stick at times like these. While the fed jobs that I know of are very, very stable. It's amazing how long some of these folks stay in the same job up until retirement. I was actually offered a Fed position and almost took it, but prefer to work more independantly myself. Yet I know a lot of folks who accepted the Fed offers they recieved.

Derek
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Old 12-30-2010, 12:15 AM
Status: "get me out of the central coast!" (set 17 days ago)
 
Location: Pismo Beach, CA
3,894 posts, read 6,408,294 times
Reputation: 862
Quote:
Originally Posted by MtnSurfer View Post
Have you considered the Federal Gov't. While everyone is effected by this economy working for the Fed tends to be much more stable than the State, especially in CA's case. I have seen this from personal experience and with friends who are currently working for the state. They are receiving furloughs, IOUs, etc... It's sad when they work so hard to make our state a better place and end up with the shorter end of the stick at times like these. While the fed jobs that I know of are very, very stable. It's amazing how long some of these folks stay in the same job up until retirement. I was actually offered a Fed position and almost took it, but prefer to work more independantly myself. Yet I know a lot of folks who accepted the Fed offers they recieved.

Derek
I didn't know this. There are federal jobs in the state of California? I will have to look into this. I do not care either way if I work for the gov or private. I am not sure if the federal government is offering the same jobs the state would. Like CalTrans and other agencies. I don't know what planning jobs for the federal government are out there.
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Old 12-30-2010, 12:46 AM
 
7,779 posts, read 3,343,579 times
Reputation: 2455
Quote:
Originally Posted by the city View Post
What's everyone's opinion on Jerry Brown and his future for California? Do you think in 2-3 years the government will have money again and be hiring people? My profession will be very closely tied the government and thus it would help if the government would be hiring. I could look into private companies, but I see there being more jobs with the gov. I am looking into county government and CalTrans.
Jerry Brown allowed collective bargaining (the unions) into California State government the first time he was Gov. He is in their pockets.

Problem: Their vast overpaid salaries, benefits and retirements compared to the real world are unsurvivable.
Can Jerry kick the 660 billion dollar pension deficit down the road a few more years before the collapse? Don't know.

We have 10% of the USA population yet 30% of the welfare.
Our businesses and wealthy tax base is leaving for other states or countries where there are less taxes and better business climates.

Obama's obamacare which included fun stuff like a $5000 fine for no insurance, forced coverage by companies of employees with 5 or more employees and required reporting of all financial transactions over $600 will further and more completely collapse the economy.

Based on that, you tell me where your company will be.
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Old 12-30-2010, 12:52 AM
 
14,605 posts, read 12,564,915 times
Reputation: 10572
Quote:
Originally Posted by the city View Post
What's everyone's opinion on Jerry Brown and his future for California? Do you think in 2-3 years the government will have money again and be hiring people? My profession will be very closely tied the government and thus it would help if the government would be hiring. I could look into private companies, but I see there being more jobs with the gov. I am looking into county government and CalTrans.

I work in the public sector, and the short answer is: NO! I'm not saying there will be absolutely no new hires, but on a net basis, government is going to lose jobs.

The biggest reason for that is the pensions. The pension funds have not gotten their 8% returns that most assumed they would get over the last 10 years. That means a whole lot more money will have to be shoveled into these funds. Even if returns going forward are good, there are going to be a whole lot of Baby Boomers retiring on these pensions. That is going to be a drag on public sector budgets for quite a long time. This is an expensive benefit to provide even if the funds achieve 8% investment returns, so you can imagine how much more expensive it's gotten.

Just to give you an idea. On my 50K salary in 2009, my employer paid over $12,000 into my pension fund. And for 2010, that amount probably went up by another $1000, even though my salary only went up 1% from 2009 to 2010.

If you can get a job at all, as a new hire, you can pretty much count on not getting the same pension deal as people working for the government are getting now. Even people working for the government may have to make some conessions and give up some benefits that were promised (and/or contribute a larger share of their salaries to maintain the same pension benefit).

Essentially, we have a structural problem with the pensions that even a decent economy is not going to fix. This is something the unions and public sector employees don't want to hear, but it is nonetheless true.

The problem with public sector pensions is pretty much the same story across most of the country, although I suspect California's problem is worse than average (although not the absolute worst...New Jersey & Illinois are much worse off).

One final note: An important secondary problem is the health care costs for employees and retirees. While these benefits are easier to scale back, they are still expensive as health care costs show no sign of abating, whether they're paid for with public or private funds.

Last edited by mysticaltyger; 12-30-2010 at 01:24 AM..
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Old 12-30-2010, 01:05 AM
 
14,605 posts, read 12,564,915 times
Reputation: 10572
Quote:
Originally Posted by MtnSurfer View Post
Have you considered the Federal Gov't. While everyone is effected by this economy working for the Fed tends to be much more stable than the State, especially in CA's case. I have seen this from personal experience and with friends who are currently working for the state. They are receiving furloughs, IOUs, etc... It's sad when they work so hard to make our state a better place and end up with the shorter end of the stick at times like these. While the fed jobs that I know of are very, very stable. It's amazing how long some of these folks stay in the same job up until retirement. I was actually offered a Fed position and almost took it, but prefer to work more independantly myself. Yet I know a lot of folks who accepted the Fed offers they recieved.

Derek
Just to piggyback on what MtnSurfer is saying here....the City of San Jose, where I work, had significant layoffs in 2010. San Jose laid off 49 firefighters because they didn't agree to pay concessions. Police didn't have layoffs because they agreed to pay concessions of ~ 4.5% of total compensation (which means their pay was cut by more than that). It was previously unthinkable to lay off or cut the pay/benefits of a policeman or firefighter. But the unthinkable has now happened.

Top management took pay cuts totaling 10% of compensation (which means pay cuts were larger than that). Rank and file departments, most of which did not take pay cuts, had layoffs. More of the same is going to happen in 2011. The City of SJ is talking about laying people off in March in order to avoid even larger numbers being laid off if they wait until July/August, as they did in 2010.

San Jose is not unique. It actually is in a better financial position than a lot of cities and has a top notch bond rating, unlike the state of CA and other cities & counties throughout the state. State & local governments can't print money, nor can they borrow for ongoing expenses...so they have to make the hard decisions. The Federal Government can borrow and print money, so it can put off the hard decisions for a later day. So, the Federal Governmentt may be stable...for now...but really I think stability is an illusion. At some point, the Federal Government isn't going to be able to continue running up debts & printing more money. No one knows when we will hit that brick wall with Federal Government finances, but just like a car crash....everything can be fine one minute and then BOOM, the next minute you're in a pile of wreckage.

Last edited by mysticaltyger; 12-30-2010 at 01:17 AM..
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Old 12-30-2010, 01:07 AM
Status: "get me out of the central coast!" (set 17 days ago)
 
Location: Pismo Beach, CA
3,894 posts, read 6,408,294 times
Reputation: 862
Quote:
Originally Posted by mysticaltyger View Post
I work in the public sector, and the short answer is: NO! I'm not saying there will be absolutely no new hires, but on a net basis, government is going to lose jobs.

The reason for that is the pensions. The pension funds have not gotten their 8% returns that most assumed they would get over the last 10 years. That means a whole lot more money will have to be shoveled into these funds. Even if returns going forward are good, there are going to be a whole lot of Baby Boomers retiring on these pensions. That is going to be a drag on public sector budgets for quite a long time. This is an expensive benefit to provide even if the funds achieve 8% investment returns, so you can imagine how much more expensive it's gotten.

Just to give you an idea. On my 50K salary in 2009, my employer paid over $12,000 into my pension fund. And for 2010, that amount probably went up by another $1000, even though my salary only went up 1% from 2009 to 2010.

If you can get a job at all, as a new hire, you can pretty much count on not getting the same pension deal as people working for the government are getting now. Even people working for the government may have to make some conessions and give up some benefits that were promised (and/or contribute a larger share of their salaries to maintain the same pension benefit).

Essentially, we have a structural problem with the pensions that even a decent economy is not going to fix. This is something the unions and public sector employees don't want to hear, but it is nonetheless true.

The problem with public sector pensions is pretty much the same story across most of the country, although I suspect California's problem is worse than average (although not the absolute worst...New Jersey & Illinois are much worse off).
Okay, I guess I get the point. So if the public sector does get better the pensions won't be the same. Which is fine with me because any gov job that hires is what I would look for. So look into the private sector for myself?

Are their any government agencies with cash?
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Old 12-30-2010, 01:16 AM
 
7,779 posts, read 3,343,579 times
Reputation: 2455
Quote:
Originally Posted by mysticaltyger View Post
I work in the public sector, and the short answer is: NO! I'm not saying there will be absolutely no new hires, but on a net basis, government is going to lose jobs.

The reason for that is the pensions. The pension funds have not gotten their 8% returns that most assumed they would get over the last 10 years. That means a whole lot more money will have to be shoveled into these funds. Even if returns going forward are good, there are going to be a whole lot of Baby Boomers retiring on these pensions. That is going to be a drag on public sector budgets for quite a long time. This is an expensive benefit to provide even if the funds achieve 8% investment returns, so you can imagine how much more expensive it's gotten.

Just to give you an idea. On my 50K salary in 2009, my employer paid over $12,000 into my pension fund. And for 2010, that amount probably went up by another $1000, even though my salary only went up 1% from 2009 to 2010.

If you can get a job at all, as a new hire, you can pretty much count on not getting the same pension deal as people working for the government are getting now. Even people working for the government may have to make some conessions and give up some benefits that were promised (and/or contribute a larger share of their salaries to maintain the same pension benefit).

Essentially, we have a structural problem with the pensions that even a decent economy is not going to fix. This is something the unions and public sector employees don't want to hear, but it is nonetheless true.

The problem with public sector pensions is pretty much the same story across most of the country, although I suspect California's problem is worse than average (although not the absolute worst...New Jersey & Illinois are much worse off).
I think we need to flat out fire a lot of Federal and State government employees.
We need military, fire, police, guards and so forth, but I think the number of employees in government should be at the same levels they were in the 60s. Meaning that if there were 1 government employee for every thousand people in the 60s, we should go back to that.

I think if we do a percentage thing comparing population to government employees. Do one for 2010 versus 1960, I'd bet the percentage now in government has skyrocketed.
That for the most part along with non-ending great society programs are the problem IMO.
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Old 12-30-2010, 01:20 AM
Status: "get me out of the central coast!" (set 17 days ago)
 
Location: Pismo Beach, CA
3,894 posts, read 6,408,294 times
Reputation: 862
Any private sector ideas for planning wise? Guess I might work for a big company like Trader Joes or something one day ha ha.
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