Active weather pattern (Petaluma, El Cerrito, Sonoma: tornado, safety, pool)

[KC6ZLV]

The snow is forecast to be at 8500 feet east of Sacramento on the west slope and 8000 on the east slope throughout most of next week. Not a big deal. We've already had a little snow in a few places at those elevations twice this month. The snow level is forecast to come down to around 6500 feet after the front passes, although at that point there isn't going to be much precipitation falling.

Right now it looks like precipitation could be around .25-.50" with the first wave, and on the 10th/11th it could be about 1" in Sacramento increasing to 3" east of Sacramento.

[KC6ZLV]

Of course, after I make a post they change the forecast.

Snow level another 1,000 feet lower. It should reach Donner Pass.

[BayAreaHillbilly]

Originally Posted by KC6ZLV

Of course, after I make a post they change the forecast.

Snow level another 1,000 feet lower. It should reach Donner Pass.

A few years ago some climbers died at Yosemite from hypothermia. Several others were harmed but did not perish. It was a similar scenario. Spending several days climbing, enjoying the sunshine and 80 deg warmth. Not a thought of harsh weather. A couple days later, it was in the 40s with cold rain and snow up high. Granted the possible storms next week are not going to bring snow down to 2000 feet or anything, but given how warm it is right now, the instinct to prepare for cold and wet conditions is not there for most people. You have to almost suspend disbelief to ensure the correct preps. On that note:

MEANWHILE...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE
TOWARDS WET AND UNSTABLE WEATHER BY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF EARLY-
SEASON STORM SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE WEST. THE FIRST ONE IS PROGGED
TO AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A STRONGER ONE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THAT IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD RAIN ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE IT IS THROUGH.
GIVEN THE EARLINESS OF THESE SYSTEMS...NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO
PREPARE FOR WET WEATHER BY CLEANING OUT GUTTERS AND STORM DRAINS.

[DynamoLA]

I do hope 2011/2012 is another wet winter for CA. I'd rather not go back to drought conditions. Is there any long-range forecast for how wet this winter might be for the state? I'm pretty sure we're exiting the La Nina pattern, but not sure where we're headed.

[BayAreaHillbilly]

EVEN BIGGER CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK...AS AN EARLY
SEASON STORM SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE AREA STARTING
AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST
SOME RAIN NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER TIMING AND AMOUNT OF RAIN IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. AS OF NOW...THE GFS BRINGS
TWO DISTINCT HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIP THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST
OCCURS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND THE SECONDS ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF IS EARLIER IN TIMING WITH BOTH BANDS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. PLEASE
SEE THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON
THE WET WEATHER NEXT WEEK. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS EARLY SEASON STORM.

With that, I give a short synopsis of the past few months. The past rainy season* was remarkable in terms of both fruitfulness and duration.

The season lasted until the end of June, way past the "nominal" April 30 "typical" end point based on climatic history.

Assuming next week's forecast pattern comes to fruition the end of the dry season** would therefore be a mere 3 months and change since its start.

* The part of the year where most of CA experiences rain bearing mid latitude systems.

** The part of the year where most of CA experiences blocking of rain bearing mid latitude systems by the Pacific High.

[KC6ZLV]

Originally Posted by DynamoLA

I do hope 2011/2012 is another wet winter for CA. I'd rather not go back to drought conditions. Is there any long-range forecast for how wet this winter might be for the state? I'm pretty sure we're exiting the La Nina pattern, but not sure where we're headed.

NOAA has a long-range forecast. I don't know what to say about accuracy. Sometimes they appear accurate. Sometimes it seems they seem way off.

Climate Prediction Center - Forecasts & Outlook Maps, Graphs and Tables

There is a link with archived long-range forecasts. They changed the page around a bit and I can't find it right away and don't feel like looking for it. But they are kind of interesting to look at if you are a meteorology addict.

[DynamoLA]

Originally Posted by KC6ZLV

NOAA has a long-range forecast. I don't know what to say about accuracy. Sometimes they appear accurate. Sometimes it seems they seem way off.

Climate Prediction Center - Forecasts & Outlook Maps, Graphs and Tables

There is a link with archived long-range forecasts. They changed the page around a bit and I can't find it right away and don't feel like looking for it. But they are kind of interesting to look at if you are a meteorology addict.

Thanks for the link! Looks like NOAA is basically saying CA will be "normal" from a precip perspective, and cooler than normal from a temp perspective this winter. I guess we'll see how that pans out.

[KC6ZLV]

Originally Posted by DynamoLA

Thanks for the link! Looks like NOAA is basically saying CA will be "normal" from a precip perspective, and cooler than normal from a temp perspective this winter. I guess we'll see how that pans out.

The forecast is that of "chance." Overall, the forecast is that there is a chance Southern California and the Southwest will be drier than normal and Northern California and the Northwest will be wetter than normal. If I remember correctly, some of the maps suggest the chance of a very cool spring in Northern California and along the Central Coast.

They have a link about how they determine the forecasts. It appears to me they weigh in heavily on the variables (sea surface temps, el nino/la nina, dominant synoptic meteorology, etc), then attempt to apply what those variables appear to have a correlation to when it comes to weather. Such as la nina returning and forecasting a cool spring, such as we had this past spring.

[tstieber]

It definitely seems like the forecasts have a been a little off for the past couple of days. It's been much sunnier and warmer along the bay cities than was forecast, so my feeling is we're really on the cusp of things until mid week. I hope we return to our usual October weather before too long, though, as the thought of an early rainy season THIS early, lasting into spring, is unbearably depressing. Of course, last winter, we had six weeks of very dry and mild weather right in the middle of the usual rainy season, so it seems to be feast or famine, and very cyclical. I definitely never believe in long range forecasts, as they seem to be a crapshoot. The Weather Channel showed much warmer than normal conditions in November for all of California, which is not what someone else noted above, so there are obviously multiple long range forecasts with conflicting conclusions.

[KC6ZLV]

It appears the Wed-Thur storm is going to be colder than originally forecast. Snow is forecast to fall above 6,000 ft, possibly 5,000 ft.