Active weather pattern (San Diego, San Jose, Santa Ana: living in, agriculture, business)

[nullgeo]

Originally Posted by Gentoo

... Noticed a large flock of Canadas in West Oakland in a softball field some distance from the nearest body of water. This is very typical winter behavior for geese, to graze far from water in large flocks.

Be very careful around anything Canadian! Can't wait until the people of this country finally wake up to the fact that the threat from the north vastly exceeds that from the south, and build a wall so high even these geese can't get over to despoil our great land ...

[Gentoo]

Originally Posted by nullgeo

Be very careful around anything Canadian! Can't wait until the people of this country finally wake up to the fact that the threat from the north vastly exceeds that from the south, and build a wall so high even these geese can't get over to despoil our great land ...

You have a radar for that word don't you? LOL

[nullgeo]

Originally Posted by Gentoo

You have a radar for that word don't you? LOL

Hey! They're not what they seem!

[BayAreaHillbilly]

Probably a bit early to start using the D word. That having been said, it seems that the typical La Nina pattern of rainy weeks interspersed with multiple dry weeks may be taking hold. Persistent blocks are a feature of La Nina and now, there is a persistent trough over the East meaning a persistent ridge over the West. Highly meridional flow. May end up being a rainy season that lasts long but has many dry periods within it. Hopefully we at least hit normal rainfall / snowfall.

[BayAreaHillbilly]

Originally Posted by BayAreaHillbilly

Probably a bit early to start using the D word. That having been said, it seems that the typical La Nina pattern of rainy weeks interspersed with multiple dry weeks may be taking hold. Persistent blocks are a feature of La Nina and now, there is a persistent trough over the East meaning a persistent ridge over the West. Highly meridional flow. May end up being a rainy season that lasts long but has many dry periods within it. Hopefully we at least hit normal rainfall / snowfall.

Well it looks like this was not too far off the mark. Here's what NOAA are saying:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories...eroutlook.html

Bottom line, on the hairy edge of drought, but nothing like the mid 1970s. More like the mid - late 80s. Heh ... back then it was uncanny ... you'd be driving from LA to SF and like clock work, you'd hit a demarcation ~ roughly 36N, south of which was a bit too dry and north of which was ever so slightly above normal.

[Gentoo]

OK, I had some news station on last night, wasn't paying too much attention to which one, I think it may have been KPIX. They said the opposite of what we've been talking about here; that this is supposed to be setting up more for El Nino, not La Nina. It's supposed to be a wetter than normal winter.

On another note, I've seen a reversal of Canada Goose movements. The Lake Merritt population has once again swelled and I'm no longer seeing them in random places. Sort of back to their summer habits. Guess they need more rain for the grasses they graze on to get going before they disperse. Some other winter migrants such as gulls (certain species) are late this year as well. This fits with El Nino as many don't come as far south.

[BayAreaHillbilly]

Whoever was saying El Nino is likely was completely wrong. The ENSO is negative and getting more so.

That having been said, here, it is possible to have wetter than normal conditions during La Nina here in NorCal. We'll see if we have a dry or wet La Nina, given our location at the north end of the Mediterranean climate zone.

Final note, last season was a La Nina season and it was wetter than normal throughout the state.

[KC6ZLV]

Mediterranean climates extend into Southern Oregon and areas of the Willamette Valley (42-43°N) and Italy to around 45°N, Crimea at 44°N.

La Nina can go either way with only a slight tendency for drier than normal conditions in Northern California and much drier than normal for Central and Southern California. The big difference is the percentage below normal. The Sacramento area receives around 20" of rainfall a year. If Sacramento receives 17" or 18" it isn't much of a problem. In area of Southern California, if you only receive 4" where the annual precipitation is around 8", that leads to big problems, which is why the drought issue is overstressed for California as a whole, in addition to the Southwest and the Gulf Coast going into drought during El Nina events.

At any rate, it is too early in the season to make a determination about precipitation. It is common for the Southern half of California to receive most of their precipitation after mid-January.

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/cap/lanina.html

[BayAreaHillbilly]

In other news ....

Depending on where you are you may be noticing a cool down today. It's due to an inside slider type system, coming straight down from the north roughly along US-95. May be a bit of snow in the Eastern Sierra. After that comes through, of course the typical bout of Santa Ana / offshore winds. Looks like there may be a pattern change ~ Halloween. Pretty typical.

[Gentoo]

Originally Posted by BayAreaHillbilly

In other news ....

Depending on where you are you may be noticing a cool down today. It's due to an inside slider type system, coming straight down from the north roughly along US-95. May be a bit of snow in the Eastern Sierra. After that comes through, of course the typical bout of Santa Ana / offshore winds. Looks like there may be a pattern change ~ Halloween. Pretty typical.

Distinctly cooler in the Oakland/Berkeley area for sure. The tops of the hills were in the fog most of the day as the ceiling remains quite low. Cleared up nicely everywhere else. I am waiting for the huge influx of migratory birds that spend the winter here to arrive. Usually a sure sign of weather activity farther north. Most birds will remain as north as possible until their food supplies run out usually caused by a change in weather. Once they're here we know our weather will be going into winter mode soon.