Active weather pattern (San Diego, Sacramento, Oakland: home, earthquakes, living)

[BayAreaHillbilly]

Looks like the next bout of offshore will be a so called "Cold Santa Ana."

If I may hazard a prediction ... we will see many weather systems coming straight down from The Yukon this season. They will be a bit dry but it would not be out of the question to witness a repeat of the winter of 2006 - 07, in terms of record cold events.

[BayAreaHillbilly]

JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST THE GFS DRIVES A SHARP TROF ACROSS
THE DISTRICT WITH SOME RAIN LATE THURSDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF KEEPS A FLAT RIDGE
OVER THE DISTRICT.

Monterey NWS.

So, it does appear we'll get some sort of pattern change after Halloween, just a matter of degree.

[Gentoo]

Since I'm no longer in SoCal and BAH gives complete weather stats for our region, I will continue with seasonal movements of birds and what this has meant in the past.

Today, I saw my first Cackling Goose of the season. They look like miniature Canadas. They come all the way from the tundra or Aleutians and usually arrive ahead of northern frontal systems. One of the first of the winter ducks has also arrived along with a secondary dose of one of the winter gull species. The Lake Merritt population of Canada Geese has also thinned just slightly again as well. Perhaps another dispersal.

All of this is indicative of changing weather patterns to the north and pretty much falls right in line with BAH posts about the changes coming up.

[BayAreaHillbilly]

PREVIOUS EXTENDED...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SWITCH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE TROF MOVES EVEN FURTHER TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALSO HEADS TO THE EAST. BEHIND IT A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THAT WILL QUICKLY END AS AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LONGWAVE TROF (DOWN TO MINUS 3.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AT 500 MB) DIVES DIRECTLY INTO OUR AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. RUN AFTER RUN OF THE MODELS HAS CONTINUED TO BEEF UP THE SHOWER POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR AREA AND SOME OF THE POP GRIDS WERE PUSHED INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY IN THE NORTH BAY FOR THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AND THEN FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE TROF MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE FREEZING LEVEL GOING TO AROUND THE 3000 FOOT MARK. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL JUST BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WITH AN ADDITIONAL 5 DEGREES OF COOLING IN MANY SPOTS FOR FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND 40S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO OUR FIRST MAJOR FROST OF THE SEASON. WOULD DEFINITELY NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE GET A FEW REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL AND THUNDER/LIGHTNING FROM THE EVENT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS THE COLDEST AIR ARRIVES AFTER THE MOISTURE...BUT IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THIS EVENT IS HIGH SO PEOPLE WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS INCLUDING AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND START PLANNING.

[vdy1985]

I find this thread hilarious. I was just in San Jose for nearly the whole month of October, and it was sunny and 70-80'a all month. Lows in the 50-60s up until the last week of October with lows in the low 50s. It was absolutely gorgeous. You don't have weather out there, just some rain every now and then in the "rainy season" with a long "dry season."

[BayAreaHillbilly]

Originally Posted by vdy1985

I find this thread hilarious. I was just in San Jose for nearly the whole month of October, and it was sunny and 70-80'a all month. Lows in the 50-60s up until the last week of October with lows in the low 50s. It was absolutely gorgeous. You don't have weather out there, just some rain every now and then in the "rainy season" with a long "dry season."

This is a seasonal wet - dry climate, not a humid one. This thread tracks the changes in at least the mid term weather patterns and climate which have tended to make the weather pattern in this latitude band more active than it was 15 or 20 years ago. The dry season has become shorter. We still get relatively dry and relatively wet years, dictated by ENSO, but the general trend has been a shortening of the dry season. That is probably Greek to a Midwesterner, living in a place with a summer rainfall maximum. Here, where certain trends may cause severe disruption of agriculture, this is serious business. Thanks for your visits to this thread.

[DynamoLA]

I think I have learned more about the weather of California in this one thread than in all of the years listening to the local "weatherman".

[Fontucky]

Another fire weather watch starting Wed morning.

[Gentoo]

Originally Posted by vdy1985

I find this thread hilarious. I was just in San Jose for nearly the whole month of October, and it was sunny and 70-80'a all month. Lows in the 50-60s up until the last week of October with lows in the low 50s. It was absolutely gorgeous. You don't have weather out there, just some rain every now and then in the "rainy season" with a long "dry season."

You're in the midwest. What you have there is not weather but a series of emergency conditions. People aren't supposed to live in that.

[Sealtite]

Originally Posted by Gentoo

You're in the midwest. What you have there is not weather but a series of emergency conditions. People aren't supposed to live in that.

Coming from Pittsburgh, I laugh my ass off when people talk about the "rainy season" here in San Diego county. I checked into it, and it rains during the winter for a few days a month. Lol. Try stepping outside and having your face go numb in seconds, not seeing the sun for 5 months straight, and weeks long rain events in the spring and fall. This past spring, it rained nonstop for almost 2 months straight. Even I was surprised that the flooding wasn't more severe.