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Old 01-24-2012, 09:56 AM
 
Location: In them thar hills
7,973 posts, read 9,905,951 times
Reputation: 4104

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Bad and worse ...

====================================

DISCUSSION...AS OF 3:18 AM PST TUESDAY...AFTER AN UNSETTLED WEEKEND THE WEATHER HAS TURNED TRANQUIL ONCE AGAIN WITH A RETURN TO MID-WINTER HIGH PRESSURE. GIVEN THE VERY DRY 2 MONTHS WE HAD THE RECENT RAINS HAVE NOT EVEN PUSHED OUR PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL UP TO 50% ON AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE BAY AREA. THE PERCENT OF NORMAL VALUES ARE GOING TO PLUMMET ONCE AGAIN AS WERE IN THE PART OF THE YEAR WHERE AVERAGE DAILY PRECIP VALUES ARE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE PER DAY. SO WHILE THE RETURN OF DRY AND MILD WEATHER WILL BE WELCOME FOR SOME...WE WILL ONCE AGAIN BY SCANNING THE LONG TERM TRENDS FOR WHEN THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL RETURN TO THE BAY AREA.
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Old 01-24-2012, 11:12 AM
Status: "Another one bites the dust..." (set 12 days ago)
 
20,509 posts, read 13,256,112 times
Reputation: 17530
I see skies of blue and clouds of white.........And I think to myself what a wonderful world..........
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Old 01-24-2012, 05:10 PM
 
Location: In them thar hills
7,973 posts, read 9,905,951 times
Reputation: 4104
FYI:

Forecasting

Typical La Nina (other than the odd, not-quite-as-bad-drought in the deep Southwest).
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Old 01-25-2012, 12:34 PM
 
Location: In them thar hills
7,973 posts, read 9,905,951 times
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We may really be getting into a drought that is as severe as that experienced recently (and ongoing?) in the Southern Great Plains:

HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER. A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDS BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS SHIFT THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH. EITHER WAY IT WOULD APPEAR TO BE FAST MOVING WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE GOLDEN GATE NORTHWARD. LONG RANGE 7-10 DAY MODEL SOLUTIONS REBUILDS A STABLE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST...IMPLYING A CONTINUED DRY PATTERN.
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Old 01-27-2012, 04:23 PM
 
Location: In them thar hills
7,973 posts, read 9,905,951 times
Reputation: 4104
This is starting to look really bad ... as in 1976 or even 1977 bad!

At some point, it will become arithmetically impossible for us to have a normal rainfall year, given the inevitability of the annual northward shift in the jet stream after the Spring equinox. So, even if we did have a spring / early summer like last year, it would not be enough to ever catch up.
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Old 01-27-2012, 04:31 PM
 
Location: In them thar hills
7,973 posts, read 9,905,951 times
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Also, for the true climate geeks ... you may be noticing some things about GISS figures and discussions about them. Even with the so called "peak" of the current solar cycle the downward slide appears to be continuing. Many people have an incorrect notion that warm periods mean dry and cold periods mean wet. In the global scheme of things, the reality is actually the opposite. For example, during much of the Pleistocene, much of the Gulf Coast had a climate on par with the Mojave (in all respects, both colder and dryer).

To understand how this can be, one can study things like the MJO and general notions of subtropical taps impacting midlatitude systems.

We know from our own experience that an El Nino tends toward warm and wet and a La Nina trends toward cold and dry. The global climate system is not unlike such a microcosm.

It will be interesting to see the juxtaposition of anthropogenic global warming (to the extent it really is global as opposed to local impacts of waste heat and albedo modification) and the innate climate variations which one can expect in this regime of geology and climate which has been in place the past two million years.
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Old 01-27-2012, 04:44 PM
Status: "It's 5 o'clock somewhere." (set 6 days ago)
 
Location: Mountain Ranch, CA The heart of Calaveras County
6,136 posts, read 11,474,055 times
Reputation: 4895
Quote:
Originally Posted by BayAreaHillbilly View Post
juxtaposition of anthropogenic
I love it when you talk dirty
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Old 01-27-2012, 05:51 PM
 
Location: GLAMA
16,587 posts, read 20,297,407 times
Reputation: 16131
C'mon honey... modify daddy's albedo. Ride that spicy albedo.
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Old 01-28-2012, 04:49 PM
 
Location: GLAMA
16,587 posts, read 20,297,407 times
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Damaging Santa Ana winds last night. I lost all the rain guttering and downspouts in the North wall of the office when a sheet of plywood from the neighboring truck yard slammed into the back of the house. Third day of relentless NE winds, RH percentages under 5, and DPs in the negative. This has been a hell of a month for the winds.
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Old 01-28-2012, 05:20 PM
 
33 posts, read 50,514 times
Reputation: 42
Interesting note from the MTR discussion this afternoon...

ONE OF THE WARMEST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON IS MONTEREY...AT A PLEASANT 71 DEGREES. IN FACT...MONTEREY IS CURRENTLY 115 DEGREES WARMER THAN FAIRBANKS, AK...FUN WEATHER FACT OF THE DAY.
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