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Old 08-10-2011, 06:00 PM
 
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At this point, an overall cooler-than-normal summer is going to go into the books, it's now statistically assured by the persistence we've witnessed and which will likely continue. The following prog takes us to the end of the second full month since the Solstice:

THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WELL. A LONGWAVE TROF WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
MOVE TO THE COAST. THIS WILL BRING A SLOW COOLING TREND...ESPECIALLY
INLAND BY NEXT WEEK...AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN ALONG WITH
MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW. LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT INTO THE VALLEYS...
EVEN INTO THE EAST BAY VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY THE DELTA DURING THE
NIGHT/MORNING HOURS. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE DRIZZLE ALONG THE
COAST AS WELL. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS KEEP A RELATIVELY DEEP TROF FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
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Old 08-11-2011, 12:16 PM
 
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Looks like the warm up is fizzling and the trough is settling in already. It's already cooling aloft based on this morning's soundings. As for the longer term:

THE UNSEASONABLY DEEP TROUGH PROGGED BY THE MODELS NEXT WEEK
APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL FORCING OVER
THE WESTERN PACIFIC THAT WILL PUMP UP A VERY STRONG RIDGE AXIS
CENTERED AROUND 160 WEST...WITH THE RESULTANT TROUGH OFF THE
PACIFIC NW AND FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF AUGUST.
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Old 08-11-2011, 12:39 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gentoo View Post
You're right, it does not at all feel like SD in August and I am loving every minute of it. I think Chula Vista made it to 68 yesterday which is my favorite temp, the one I'm most comfortable with. They keep chipping away at the warm up this weekend too. Now they're saying it will be a slight warm up and we may barely notice it. I ran into some people from Maryland and they said they would kill to have a summer like this.
Yeah, I'm just north of the stadium on I-15 right now, and the marine layer JUST cleared in the last 10 minutes, around 11:30. That's not very August like at all.

Although I wish the nights were warmer for outdoor dining, I admit I also like this temperature for overall comfort. I keep thinking about the heat back east and how it feels like outdoor A/C here.
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Old 08-12-2011, 11:28 AM
 
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Seems like there is some sort of upper level Low forming off of SoCal / the Central Coast. It's causing lots of high clouds to stream in from the SW up here in Norcal. This feature can be seen on the satellite but does not show up on the surface charts, since it's upper level.
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Old 08-12-2011, 05:13 PM
 
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I can tell the air aloft is incredibly cold for this time of year. Contrails all over the place, which are persistent enough to morph into cirrus. The mass of cirrus is growing. It's an early November sky just now.
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Old 08-12-2011, 05:55 PM
 
Location: San Diego, California Republic
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BayAreaHillbilly View Post
I can tell the air aloft is incredibly cold for this time of year. Contrails all over the place, which are persistent enough to morph into cirrus. The mass of cirrus is growing. It's an early November sky just now.
I think it's unusual for norcal in summer but not so much here. What you're getting is the cirrus from down south. It has a different origin, mainly from convective monsoon thunderstorms. They're the remnants of the anvils.
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Old 08-13-2011, 09:35 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gentoo View Post
I think it's unusual for norcal in summer but not so much here. What you're getting is the cirrus from down south. It has a different origin, mainly from convective monsoon thunderstorms. They're the remnants of the anvils.
Yeah, I agree, there is no unusually cold upper level air going on. We had lots of the cirrus in San Diego yesterday too, and I thought it was remarkably cool. While Lindbergh Field was in the upper 60s a couple times during the week, it was at least in the 77-78F range at my place inland, but yesterday it struggled to reach 74 or 75F all day, and there were periods of limited sun and cool breezes on and off. It may have been the coolest day I ever remember in SD in August. Add to that the long lasting stratus every morning, and it feels more like May than August.
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Old 08-13-2011, 10:23 AM
 
Location: San Diego, California Republic
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tstieber View Post
Yeah, I agree, there is no unusually cold upper level air going on. We had lots of the cirrus in San Diego yesterday too, and I thought it was remarkably cool. While Lindbergh Field was in the upper 60s a couple times during the week, it was at least in the 77-78F range at my place inland, but yesterday it struggled to reach 74 or 75F all day, and there were periods of limited sun and cool breezes on and off. It may have been the coolest day I ever remember in SD in August. Add to that the long lasting stratus every morning, and it feels more like May than August.
That subtropical air seems to be loaded with cirrus and cirrocumulus clouds and to a slightly lesser extent, altocumulus. Often those high clouds are the first sign we get that the humidity will rise. In northern Ca. those types of clouds normally mean cold air is nearby. In southern Ca. it can also mean tropical air is. The low BAH spoke of off the SoCal coast is drawing up those clouds from farther south and pushing them up at least as far as the Bay Area. At least that's what it looked like on the satellite I saw.

On another note, I agree that this is the coolest August I have ever experienced in SD. Here in Chula Vista, most days were in the high 60's. I think we hit 70 once, maybe twice. Again, I am so not complaining.
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Old 08-15-2011, 12:00 PM
 
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Update from NWS:

OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES FELL INTO THE UPPER 40S THROUGH PARTS OF THE
NORTH BAY VALLEY...AS WELL AS OTHER INLAND LOCATIONS. THE REST OF
THE REGION SAW LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST.

On the long range they are prog'ing a strange scenario. The Four Corners High will be in a battle with the persistent East Pacific trough.

Meanwhile, a bit of the SW Monsoon flow will possibly come in right between the Four Corners High and the trough. Now all we need is another strong typhoon in the WPAC.

That may wipe out the Pacific High for the season.

(BTW - ref the comments above, there was actually a weak upper level cut off / cold low last week off of the SoCal / Central coast, that was not the SW Monsoon in play).
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Old 08-15-2011, 05:11 PM
 
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Quite autumnal earlier today. A cold start but then got quite warm. Now the wind is kicking in, so summer is not quite dead yet.
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