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Old 05-25-2011, 11:58 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Charles View Post
The first thing I thought when I read the thread title wasn't "Why so low now?", but rather "Why so high in 1966?" I don't think of the mid 1960s as being particularly violent or high crime or whatever. What might explain that? Demographics? High numbers of baby boomers in their "most likely age to commit murder (mid 20s)" years?

The crime rate started rising in the mid 1960s and peaked in 1980 although it stayed high through the early 1990s. 18 year old males are the most crime prone age...The crime rate drops for each year beyond age 18. 1st Boomers born in 1946 and crime rates started rising around 1965....Last year of Boomers 1964 and crime rates peaked in 1980. There's definitely a correlation there. although crime rates stayed high through the early 1990s....I think because the parents of Gen X (mostly older boomers) let the kids do whatever they wanted. A fairly large number of younger Boomers and Gen Xers were horrified at the "let your kids do whatever they want" hippie parentlng style (or maybe that should be called non-parenting) that the subsequent generation has become less crime prone.
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Old 05-26-2011, 07:50 PM
 
Location: Earth
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mysticaltyger View Post
The crime rate started rising in the mid 1960s and peaked in 1980 although it stayed high through the early 1990s. 18 year old males are the most crime prone age...The crime rate drops for each year beyond age 18. 1st Boomers born in 1946 and crime rates started rising around 1965....Last year of Boomers 1964 and crime rates peaked in 1980. There's definitely a correlation there. although crime rates stayed high through the early 1990s....I think because the parents of Gen X (mostly older boomers) let the kids do whatever they wanted. A fairly large number of younger Boomers and Gen Xers were horrified at the "let your kids do whatever they want" hippie parentlng style (or maybe that should be called non-parenting) that the subsequent generation has become less crime prone.
By that definition of the Baby Boom I'd be considered a Boomer - interesting. Most definitions define the Boomers as being born between 1945-60 (although birth rates started dropping after 1957).

The 18-25 age bracket is the most crime prone, or sometimes I've heard it defined as 16-27 - criminality starts dropping slowly after age 25, even more after age 30, and really heavily after one hits 35. So, under your definition, the last Boomers turned 30 in 1994 - and there weren't as many Gen Xers as boomers. The mid-1970s saw even lower birth rates since the Depression years, the likes of which would not be seen again until 2008. The mid-'70s were the last time the US birth rate was below Western Europe's.

So, the US reached its all time low birth rate in 1975, meaning fewer 18 year olds in 1993 and 1994 - which was when crime in many places in the US started dropping.
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Old 05-26-2011, 08:53 PM
 
Location: Las Flores, Orange County, CA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by majoun View Post
Most definitions define the Boomers as being born between 1945-60 (although birth rates started dropping after 1957).

I've always heard baby boomer generation ending in 1964, not 1960. I was born in 1961 so this would be relevant to me.

"The United States Census Bureau considers a baby boomer to be someone born during the demographic birth boom between 1946 and 1964."

from

Baby boomer - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Old 05-26-2011, 09:45 PM
 
Location: Earth
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Charles View Post
I've always heard baby boomer generation ending in 1964, not 1960. I was born in 1961 so this would be relevant to me.

"The United States Census Bureau considers a baby boomer to be someone born during the demographic birth boom between 1946 and 1964."

from

Baby boomer - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
That definition was common in earlier studies of the Boomers. The Census Bureau still uses the earlier definition.

Strauss and Howe's "Generations" has been more influential on recent studies of the Boomers which cuts off at 1960. The birth rate started dropping in 1958. Culturally speaking, we who were born during the Kennedy Administration like you and I have very different cultural references than someone born during the Truman Administration.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generations_(book)

If you don't remember the assassination, you're not a boomer. I was only a few months old so I don't remember it.
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Old 05-27-2011, 04:48 AM
 
Location: Everywhere and Nowhere
14,131 posts, read 27,077,317 times
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According to Steven Levitt (Freakonomics) legalized abortion is probably the biggest contributor to the drop in crime rates over the past couple of decades. Since abortions are disproportionately done on women of lower socio-economic status (same demographic groups as most criminals) it removes a large number of criminals from the population. Presumably this would carry forward since those future criminals will have been eliminated from the gene pool and thus could not reproduce. Perhaps conservatives, who are highly concerned about crime, should reconsider their opposition to Roe v. Wade.
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Old 05-27-2011, 06:30 AM
 
Location: Zurich, Switzerland/ Piedmont, CA
32,329 posts, read 55,131,075 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CAVA1990 View Post
According to Steven Levitt (Freakonomics) legalized abortion is probably the biggest contributor to the drop in crime rates over the past couple of decades. Since abortions are disproportionately done on women of lower socio-economic status (same demographic groups as most criminals) it removes a large number of criminals from the population. Presumably this would carry forward since those future criminals will have been eliminated from the gene pool and thus could not reproduce. Perhaps conservatives, who are highly concerned about crime, should reconsider their opposition to Roe v. Wade.
Or, it could be that increasing numbers of people from poorer classes have pulled themselves out of poverty and their children and succeeding generations as a result.

Education is an amazing equalizer as it puts people who were disadvantaged at greater advantage, more able to compete for better paying jobs and ultimately they were able to remove themselves, but more importantly their children, from unfavorable environments.
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Old 05-27-2011, 08:54 AM
 
Location: Everywhere and Nowhere
14,131 posts, read 27,077,317 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 18Montclair View Post
Or, it could be that increasing numbers of people from poorer classes have pulled themselves out of poverty and their children and succeeding generations as a result.
Ya think?

U.S. poverty rate hits 15-year high - Washington Times
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