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Old 11-30-2011, 09:30 AM
 
2,311 posts, read 3,492,363 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Don9 View Post
Welcome to California

On the flip side ... a person can make a small fortune if they buy and then sell at the right time
As did many smart co-workers off the mania that occurred over the last couple of years... They formed some of the bigger waves of folks who moved to tech centers in Austin, TX and Raleigh, NC. .. Some of the smart money that got out during the Mania stage :


We are in the blowoff phase in general across the U.S so they are quite slim pickings for making money at this point.
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Old 11-30-2011, 09:41 AM
 
2,311 posts, read 3,492,363 times
Reputation: 1223
Quote:
Originally Posted by beb0p View Post
At this point, I suspect you don't remember what my points were because my points are all based on common knowledge. You're the kind of guy who wants a poster to provide links to the fact that people wants to be happy rather than sad.

But if you insist, here is the data:

City Mayors: Cost of living - The world's most expensive cities 2011

Fact #1. Hong Kong is an international city.
Fact #2. Hong Kong real estate is very expensive.
Fact #3. Los Angeles is a USA city.
Fact #4. Hong Kong real estate is more expensive than Los Angeles per sq ft.

That's it, those are ALL the facts. Study them if you must. But I suggest you go back to my original post and see if you can decipher what my points are. Just because I'm a nice guy, to save you time here are my points from my original post:

1. Real estate in cities cost more than real estate in rural areas.
2. LA real estate price is not unreasonable when you compare to some other major cities like Hong Kong
3. We need places with cheap real estate but it's also not harmful to have expensive real estate in cities.

Now, maybe for once you actually supply a link that is even remotely related to my points. Not holding my breath though.




I wasn't having an investment argument with you. If that's the route you want to go, there's an Investment forum where you can vent.




I thought you said "Don't follow the herd."??!

"The many people who make millions of dollars a day predicting and placing bets on the direction of the markets" must be right.
Of course!!! Follow the herd.

You seem to be oblivious to the fact that whether there is bubble or not, does not in any way, shape or form, disprove my points.





If you "hold a substantial amount of REITs (US) in your portfolio" and you follow "the many people who make millions of dollars a day predicting and placing bets on the direction of the markets", don't tell me you don't have an agenda.

The rest of your post is just more rambling. I'm not even sure who you're talking to anymore, since I sure did not engage you in an investment/housing bubble thread and has no interest in doing so. And you provide more links to articles that has nothing whatever about the points I made. Are you just lonely and need someone to talk to?
More personal attacks devoid of any content.. Tracing back/scaling back your baseless words and conclusions .

"Are you just lonely and need someone to talk to?"

It would seem as though you are since nothing you can respond to has anything to do w/ the topic and everything to do w/ making a personal battle out of 'nothing'. Making contrived personal attacks to detract from the fact that you have nothing important or of value to say...

"2. LA real estate price is not unreasonable when you compare to some other major cities like Hong Kong"

There is no value in comparing LA to Hong Kong....... One place is full of a country's speculating elite whose wealth is garnered by raping/pillaging people into non-existence and the other is filled w/ everyday people.
One places has gone through a bubble that is collapsing.. the other hasn't.You aren't establishing any points by comparing LA prices to Hong Kong... You're speaking as if you are reflecting on a global citizen who gets to take their pick of the 'what is hot' places on travelers magazine... Is L.A filled w/ such people? No... Do they encompass the majority of home owners in L.A ? No... Do the majority of people in L.A work everyday jobs that pay 'more' because it is in a 'city'? Yes ... Does that pay compensate for the price differential in property? No. Did speculators run up prices insanely that made income/price multiples out of whack? Yes... Will they return to sanity ? Yes. Are global speculators currently propping up prices in 'hot' areas ? Yes ... Is it sustainable? No.

No matter the location, there is a tried and true measure of 'affordability' which has to do w/ home price as a multiple of income. If you understand basic math, you'd understand that this measure applies to both rural/suburban and city cores. The bay area is not a 'citycore'. L.A is a 'sprawling' city and encompass many suburbs that are insanely priced. SF and the bay area are 'urban sprawls'. The Density of NY (a city core) is 27k people/sq. mile.. Compare that with L.A which has only 7k/sq. mile and SF which has only 17k/square mile.. The prices are way out of whack as it pertains to income multiples (still) and thus basic laws of gravity suggest prices will still fall. $550,000 is insane for a starter home in the area due to income multiples .. However, there are still insane people out there .. and still lots of speculators.

Every place has demand/desirability ... and while you'd like to think you are all self important and everyone would love to be where you are :
84 percent of the United States' inhabitants live in suburban and urban areas, but cities occupy only 10 percent of the country. Rural areas occupy the remaining 90 percent.

As for the hong kong market, you demonstrate that you know nothing about it.

Last edited by yeahthatguy; 11-30-2011 at 10:15 AM..
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Old 11-30-2011, 01:17 PM
 
13,711 posts, read 9,181,405 times
Reputation: 9840
You know, this is not bad. For once you actually addressed some of the points that I made. I thought you are just going to post more mindless Kim Kardashian links but there may be intelligence behind that keyboard after all. It's a start.


Quote:
Originally Posted by yeahthatguy View Post

There is no value in comparing LA to Hong Kong....... One place is full of a country's speculating elite whose wealth is garnered by raping/pillaging people into non-existence and the other is filled w/ everyday people.
One places has gone through a bubble that is collapsing.. the other hasn't.You aren't establishing any points by comparing LA prices to Hong Kong... You're speaking as if you are reflecting on a global citizen who gets to take their pick of the 'what is hot' places on travelers magazine... Is L.A filled w/ such people? No... Do they encompass the majority of home owners in L.A ? No... Do the majority of people in L.A work everyday jobs that pay 'more' because it is in a 'city'? Yes ... Does that pay compensate for the price differential in property? No. Did speculators run up prices insanely that made income/price multiples out of whack? Yes... Will they return to sanity ? Yes. Are global speculators currently propping up prices in 'hot' areas ? Yes ... Is it sustainable? No.

You know, this is the first time you actually made a counter point. This is what I'm looking for, not mumbling and jumbling but actual solid point that is on topic.

Just so we're on the same page, let me sums up your point for you - HK/China price is inflated therefore one cannot compare LA prices to HK/China.

But even if it is inflated, it doesn't refute my argument unless you are trying to say that HK properties will fall to where one can buy a starter home for $50k. Even if HK properties fall 40%, it'll still be about par with LA and the rest of the world. Meaning, cities are still exponentially more expensive, which is my point.



Quote:
Originally Posted by yeahthatguy View Post
It would seem as though you are since nothing you can respond to has anything to do w/ the topic and everything to do w/ making a personal battle out of 'nothing'. Making contrived personal attacks to detract from the fact that you have nothing important or of value to say...
LOL. Talk about being called ugly by a frog! I'm the one who was trying to keep us ON TOPIC. You're the one who talked about betting on the market, pollution, business, investment, REIT, suicides and Kim kardashian (ok, maybe not but may as well).

The way you habitually go off topic, I half expect basketball and Harry Potter to come up any minute now.


Quote:
Originally Posted by yeahthatguy View Post
The bay area is not a 'citycore'. L.A is a 'sprawling' city and encompass many suburbs that are insanely priced. SF and the bay area are 'urban sprawls'. The Density of NY (a city core) is 27k people/sq. mile.. Compare that with L.A which has only 7k/sq. mile and SF which has only 17k/square mile..
More random stats. Not sure where you're going with this, are you trying to link people/sq mile to price? To the desirebility of the city? I'm not going to guess what your point if you don't state it.


Quote:
Originally Posted by yeahthatguy View Post
No matter the location, there is a tried and true measure of 'affordability' which has to do w/ home price as a multiple of income.
Now this would be a "relevant" facts.

What is the "tried and true measure of 'affordability'? Care to post the data or where you found that information? I'm not doubting you, just want to see some Relevant facts from you for once.


Quote:
Originally Posted by yeahthatguy View Post
Every place has demand/desirability ... and while you'd like to think you are all self important and everyone would love to be where you are :
84 percent of the United States' inhabitants live in suburban and urban areas, but cities occupy only 10 percent of the country. Rural areas occupy the remaining 90 percent.

Just as you began to show some semblance of sanity, you go off your rocker and into mind-reading.


Quote:
Originally Posted by yeahthatguy View Post
As for the hong kong market, you demonstrate that you know nothing about it.
Interesting that you addressed none of the points I made about the HK market and then you proceed to say I know nothing about it.

You see, the fact that 40% to 60% of new units are unoccupied in HK/China is irrelevant. What Bloomberg and other business publications don't tell you is that their market is more of a commodities market than a housing market. First of all, there's no property tax and a house in HK/Chn requires little maintenance - rich people are treating them as hedge against inflation and as a safe heaven to park money. In other words, investors treat a house almost like we treat gold. Those units are NOT meant to be occupied. They are also NOT going to be sold anytime soon. Flipping is not common in China. Many of these flats are going to be sitting empty for a long, long time; thereby driving up the supply/demand for a long time also. PBS actually has a nice documentary about this, I suggest you search for it online. To say that there's a bubble because there are a lot of empty units is akin to saying there's a bubble in gold because most gold are bought to be stored instead of being manufactured.

And even if there's a bubble, the government has the power to do whatever they want to prop up prices. They can even buy an entire building when necessary and just demo it. Many who owned those empty units are high-ranking government officials. Are they going to just stand by and do nothing at the first sign of trouble? The government has the power to wipe out an entire province to keep the supply in check. Imagine if all out-lying areas is destroyed and everyone has to move to the Bay Area, would it prop up the property value? You bet.

There's a great migration of rural Chinese into the cities (government mandate) to the tune of around 20 millions people a year. That's the size of some countries. Those people need housing, and while they can't afford the luxury condos now, what about fifteen years from now? Is it possibly that the government can keep this bubble alive for 10, 15, 20 years until the vast new middle class is rich enough to swoop up the units?

I'm personally friends with people who own these empty flats. One of them has a $3 million ocean view bachelor pad that he is now using as a "storage room" after he got married and moved to a family-friendly area. He bought a flat for his mistress and just bought a vacation home in Malibu for his two weeks per year visit to the states. He also owns several empty units from Shanghai to Macau. A lot of these unoccupied units are owned by the superrich. People who wouldn't feel pain if the market drops 50% tomorrow and have no reason to "walk away" from a house. Unlike the states where short sale/foreclosure help drove property price down significantly.

And there are many, many other differences between HK/Chn and US housing. I don't make any prediction. If there is an article that takes those facts into account and presents a coherent analysis about the Chinese housing market, I'd love to read it. I've yet to find it though. You don't have to respond to this section and if you do, I won't read it. I'm merely looking for an analysis from an expert, not some random mind-reader.

Last edited by beb0p; 11-30-2011 at 02:45 PM..
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Old 11-30-2011, 03:16 PM
 
23,653 posts, read 17,430,869 times
Reputation: 7467
My hubby's sister lives there. My hubby grew up there as a teen, he does not want to move back with the horrible traffic, etc. His sister works in the school system as a nurse, she says the school population is down and getting smaller all the time with the parents leaving the state. Her son left for Oregon. Her other kids live with her. Grown but can't afford to live anywhere else.

We vacationed there but don't want to live there. We drove highway 1 in Feb, I see some of that highway has collapsed. Just a side note and very sad. It was beautiful and we had a great time.

Our house cost $165,000 and in a very nice area. The house on HGTV had holes in the walls and needed a lot of TLC after the couple moved in. I guess if you want to live in a popular area and are paid big money----for teachers I guess they were---then go for it. With kids moving away though, how long will they have a job?

I see on HGTV how the popular areas of the world are so overpriced. No yards, etc. Not sure if I could live that way. Hubby gets to work in 20 minutes and it is across town. We have space and open areas and no traffic jams to speak of. I guess you have lots to do but how often do you fight traffic to get there? Then you end up doing what we do here anyway. Visiting family, friends, going to movies and out to dinner. Plus nothing is wrong with sex you know for the person who says that is all there is to do. LOL

My hubby works in the aircraft industry (which is mostly all of Wichita) and he does agree the safety center that was built is a waste. Not all my family work in aircraft or aircraft related though.

I hope the HGTV was a rerun but the current listings that was posted look about the same. I wish I would inherit a house there and could sell it for that huge amount. You must have a huge tax burden though.
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Old 11-30-2011, 03:47 PM
 
2,311 posts, read 3,492,363 times
Reputation: 1223
Quote:
Originally Posted by beb0p View Post
You know, this is not bad. For once you actually addressed some of the points that I made. I thought you are just going to post more mindless Kim Kardashian links but there may be intelligence behind that keyboard after all. It's a start.





You know, this is the first time you actually made a counter point. This is what I'm looking for, not mumbling and jumbling but actual solid point that is on topic.

Just so we're on the same page, let me sums up your point for you - HK/China price is inflated therefore one cannot compare LA prices to HK/China.

But even if it is inflated, it doesn't refute my argument unless you are trying to say that HK properties will fall to where one can buy a starter home for $50k. Even if HK properties fall 40%, it'll still be about par with LA and the rest of the world. Meaning, cities are still exponentially more expensive, which is my point.





LOL. Talk about being called ugly by a frog! I'm the one who was trying to keep us ON TOPIC. You're the one who talked about betting on the market, pollution, business, investment, REIT, suicides and Kim kardashian (ok, maybe not but may as well).

The way you habitually go off topic, I half expect basketball and Harry Potter to come up any minute now.




More random stats. Not sure where you're going with this, are you trying to link people/sq mile to price? To the desirebility of the city? I'm not going to guess what your point if you don't state it.




Now this would be a "relevant" facts.

What is the "tried and true measure of 'affordability'? Care to post the data or where you found that information? I'm not doubting you, just want to see some Relevant facts from you for once.





Just as you began to show some semblance of sanity, you go off your rocker and into mind-reading.




Interesting that you addressed none of the points I made about the HK market and then you proceed to say I know nothing about it.

You see, the fact that 40% to 60% of new units are unoccupied in HK/China is irrelevant. What Bloomberg and other business publications don't tell you is that their market is more of a commodities market than a housing market. First of all, there's no property tax and a house in HK/Chn requires little maintenance - rich people are treating them as hedge against inflation and as a safe heaven to park money. In other words, investors treat a house almost like we treat gold. Those units are NOT meant to be occupied. They are also NOT going to be sold anytime soon. Flipping is not common in China. Many of these flats are going to be sitting empty for a long, long time; thereby driving up the supply/demand for a long time also. PBS actually has a nice documentary about this, I suggest you search for it online. To say that there's a bubble because there are a lot of empty units is akin to saying there's a bubble in gold because most gold are bought to be stored instead of being manufactured.

And even if there's a bubble, the government has the power to do whatever they want to prop up prices. They can even buy an entire building when necessary and just demo it. Many who owned those empty units are high-ranking government officials. Are they going to just stand by and do nothing at the first sign of trouble? The government has the power to wipe out an entire province to keep the supply in check. Imagine if all out-lying areas is destroyed and everyone has to move to the Bay Area, would it prop up the property value? You bet.

There's a great migration of rural Chinese into the cities (government mandate) to the tune of around 20 millions people a year. That's the size of some countries. Those people need housing, and while they can't afford the luxury condos now, what about fifteen years from now? Is it possibly that the government can keep this bubble alive for 10, 15, 20 years until the vast new middle class is rich enough to swoop up the units?

I'm personally friends with people who own these empty flats. One of them has a $3 million ocean view bachelor pad that he is now using as a "storage room" after he got married and moved to a family-friendly area. He bought a flat for his mistress and just bought a vacation home in Malibu for his two weeks per year visit to the states. He also owns several empty units from Shanghai to Macau. A lot of these unoccupied units are owned by the superrich. People who wouldn't feel pain if the market drops 50% tomorrow and have no reason to "walk away" from a house. Unlike the states where short sale/foreclosure help drove property price down significantly.

And there are many, many other differences between HK/Chn and US housing. I don't make any prediction. If there is an article that takes those facts into account and presents a coherent analysis about the Chinese housing market, I'd love to read it. I've yet to find it though. You don't have to respond to this section and if you do, I won't read it. I'm merely looking for an analysis from an expert, not some random mind-reader.
I don't really care for your bated discussion anymore. Your reference to business reports from bloomberg and highly accurate analyst who live in hong kong who make a living on these markets as tabloid news reflects your level of insight. You know some jetsetters w/ global property portfolios and you are feigning like you have some insight into how things work. I know quite a few myself and most of their portfolio's are 20-30% underwater. They don't have to sell and thus it is unrealized losses. Nor do people have to be fools and buy... Quite aware of the lack of property tax (which is coming and is already in trial phase in several areas ... http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...638661088.html) Good luck w/ the carry/maintenance costs .. and as I recall, condos have a hefty association fee. empty condos are hardly a no-cost venture).. Quite aware of the silly idea by many chinese that real-estate is a 'commodity'.. There are lots in the bay area who have thrown several generations worth of wealth into homes only to be negative on their mortgage... I recall I mentioned this idiotic practice several posts ago.

Maintaining several worldwide investments, you tend to get your news/data/info from places other than anecdotal jet-setting friends lying about their book, pbs, and anecdotal stops by the homeland...
I applaud the 'inflation hedging' of people w/ more capital than they know what to do w/ ... who don't know where best to put it. They serve as chum in markets and work wonders for REITS.

The U.S market is what it is .. I responded in detail about that..
And per your elongated praise of HK, I ensured to respond to that too. Believe what you want. Could care less.

Good Day.

Last edited by yeahthatguy; 11-30-2011 at 04:01 PM..
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Old 11-30-2011, 06:53 PM
 
Location: Sputnik Planitia
7,826 posts, read 11,728,929 times
Reputation: 9045
Quote:
Originally Posted by Charles View Post
Here's a beautiful starter home in Ranch Santa Margarita for $250K

38 PASEO PRIMERO, Rancho Santa Margarita, CA 92688 | MLS# P802435

Here's a beautiful starter home in Thousand Oaks (an ideal loction for the two teachers in the post above) for $265K (remember their budget was $550K, I guess they assume they'll both be working non stop.)

1152 CALLE TULIPAN, Thousand Oaks, CA 91360 | MLS# F11036327
Starter home is 944 sqft now? That's as small as my tiny 1bd apt. The house in RSM seems decently priced, however I'm guessing it's priced by the seller anticipating a short sale approval by the bank, and the bank will never approve it at that price...waste of time Also watch out for the Mello Roos ouch! so that $250k may not be that great after all!
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Old 11-30-2011, 07:04 PM
 
Location: California
37,056 posts, read 42,009,908 times
Reputation: 34872
Quote:
Originally Posted by janelle144 View Post
My hubby's sister lives there. My hubby grew up there as a teen, he does not want to move back with the horrible traffic, etc. His sister works in the school system as a nurse, she says the school population is down and getting smaller all the time with the parents leaving the state. Her son left for Oregon. Her other kids live with her. Grown but can't afford to live anywhere else.

We vacationed there but don't want to live there. We drove highway 1 in Feb, I see some of that highway has collapsed. Just a side note and very sad. It was beautiful and we had a great time.

Our house cost $165,000 and in a very nice area. The house on HGTV had holes in the walls and needed a lot of TLC after the couple moved in. I guess if you want to live in a popular area and are paid big money----for teachers I guess they were---then go for it. With kids moving away though, how long will they have a job?

I see on HGTV how the popular areas of the world are so overpriced. No yards, etc. Not sure if I could live that way. Hubby gets to work in 20 minutes and it is across town. We have space and open areas and no traffic jams to speak of. I guess you have lots to do but how often do you fight traffic to get there? Then you end up doing what we do here anyway. Visiting family, friends, going to movies and out to dinner. Plus nothing is wrong with sex you know for the person who says that is all there is to do. LOL

My hubby works in the aircraft industry (which is mostly all of Wichita) and he does agree the safety center that was built is a waste. Not all my family work in aircraft or aircraft related though.

I hope the HGTV was a rerun but the current listings that was posted look about the same. I wish I would inherit a house there and could sell it for that huge amount. You must have a huge tax burden though.
Are you talking about LA? Because CA is a huge state and there is a whole lot of it that isn't full of traffic. And loosing students would be great news for many overcrowded campuses.
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Old 11-30-2011, 07:38 PM
 
23,653 posts, read 17,430,869 times
Reputation: 7467
Yes LA. My SIL doesn't see loosing students as a good thing.
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Old 12-02-2011, 11:14 PM
 
17,815 posts, read 25,533,178 times
Reputation: 36262
Quote:
Originally Posted by janelle144 View Post
The house was on HGTV this evening. Showed a young couple searching for a house in the Ventura area. It will probably be rerun or you can go to their web site to see it.

Hasn't the housing bubble hit CA yet? It has everywhere else. Here it is----


David and Christina are not only newlyweds, they also teach in the same 4th grade classroom. Now they're embarking on their next project: buying their first home in Los Angeles. The couple wants to live near the private school where they work, in the upscale San Fernando Valley town of Sherman Oaks. They love to bike through the canyons south of legendary Ventura Boulevard, but the real estate prices in that area often start in the millions of dollars, so they'll settle for buying a place that's close to Ventura. But even with that compromise, with a budget of $550,000, can they find a starter home that's big enough, and updated enough, to meet their exacting tastes?

Teachers Search for Starter Home in L.A.'s San Fernando Valley : House Hunters : Home & Garden Television

Teachers Search for Starter Home in L.A.'s San Fernando Valley

Episode HNT-5011H

OP, just an FYI you're getting your apples mixed up with your oranges.

You said the "Ventura area", this isn't Ventura, CA in Ventura County. This is Sherman Oaks in LA County. One of the pricier areas in LA County.

Lots of celebrities live there.

When people in CA use the terminolgy in the Ventura area like you did, it means Ventura, CA not the boulevard.

In fact in the Valley people will just call Ventura Bvld "the boulevard" as it runs the from Studio City all the way out to Woodland Hills and beyond.

Properties north of the "boulevard" are less desireable and have less expensive houses.

Just an FYI.
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Old 12-03-2011, 12:40 AM
 
Location: Due North of Potemkin City Limits
1,237 posts, read 1,941,633 times
Reputation: 1141
Home prices in California are ridiculous but if people are willing to pay that much, then whatever. From my perspective, it isn't for me. I'd rather rent. No mortgage company to deal with, much lower monthly payment, no property taxes, and no maintenance responsibility. I'd feel differently if there was any financial incentive right now in getting into a new mortgage, but there isn't. The market is simply beyond volatile here. It's a huge cluster**** here, and I've got enough **** to worry about as it is.

I was raised with the idea that when you buy a house, you live there for a very long time, if not for the rest of your life. Most people where I'm from live in homes that have been in their family for generations. My grandmother lives in a farm house (it's no longer part of a farm) that has been in the family since shortly after the Revolutionary war. It will continue to stay in the family somehow long after she's gone. This is one of the major reasons why the housing bubble never hit that part of the country.
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