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Old 01-03-2012, 10:21 PM
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,268 posts, read 10,035,066 times
Reputation: 4021
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gemdiver View Post
Right, because wanting to live with your own kind is racism.
Right, so as I was saying, if people change the way they think about race or more generally "their own kind" then.....old patterns will die.

Not sure what the crime, etc stuff has to do with my comment.
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Old 01-03-2012, 11:04 PM
 
1,352 posts, read 1,304,012 times
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I think the population projections are too conservative. The Hispanic and Asian populations are growing much faster than the trends suggest from the projections.
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Old 01-04-2012, 11:05 AM
 
164 posts, read 228,066 times
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Fresno:

Total: 800k(2000) 983k(2010) 1.2m(2020) 1.4m(2030) 1.6m(2040)
White: 324k 331k 342k 349k 354k
Hispanic:353k 492k 653k 824k 1m
Asian: 66k 92k 125k 158k 195k
Black: 41k 46k 56k 65k 76k
Multi: 11k 11k 13k 15k 18k
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Old 01-04-2012, 01:08 PM
 
1,687 posts, read 3,624,175 times
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Dave Coe is doing a good job but I just want to include the state's caution about this data.

The projections are from 2007, before the last census. They will be redone in the next year or two using the census results as a guide.

Per the link in the original post:
Quote:
IMPORTANT NOTE: This report does not yet reflect the results of the 2010 Census - caution is advised when using these data. We will revise our County Projections after the Census Bureau releases its Modified Age, Race, and Sex (MARS) file. The MARS file is expected to be released in early 2012, so we anticipate 2013 for published reports.
The California Census 2010 results are at:
http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demog..._2010/view.php

The trends are still interesting and some counties were fairly close projections for 2010, but the census results will change the projections for 2020 onward. It will be interesting to see how the state DOF demographers adjust the projections using the new census data.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Coe View Post
Marin:

Interesting how they predict a decline in the Asian population which is the fastest growing in the Bay Area.
In Census 2010 it actually was higher than they projected in Marin.
Projection 2010: Asian: 11k
Census 2010: Asian: 13,577

One of the things I've noticed is there seems to have been more Californians marking Multirace in the 2010 Census than the DOF projections expected.

For example, staying with Marin:
Multi Projection for 2010 = 5k
Census 2010 = 7,311
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Old 01-04-2012, 08:29 PM
 
Location: In them thar hills
7,853 posts, read 9,403,185 times
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I think many of the growth curves were derived last century. The actual figures the past couple of years tell a different story. Net migration from other US locations has gone negative for most counties. That leaves natural increase and immigration, both of which are flattening. I seriously doubt that most projections are going to be accurate or even close. There may even be the shocker of 2050 being lower than now.
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Old 01-04-2012, 11:35 PM
 
Location: Earth
11,885 posts, read 12,837,158 times
Reputation: 3995
Quote:
Originally Posted by BayAreaHillbilly View Post
I think many of the growth curves were derived last century. The actual figures the past couple of years tell a different story. Net migration from other US locations has gone negative for most counties. That leaves natural increase and immigration, both of which are flattening. I seriously doubt that most projections are going to be accurate or even close. There may even be the shocker of 2050 being lower than now.
Agreed.
The people who are doing the projections have an interest in assuming constant growth.

Those projections may wind up like 1950s projections of a sprawling megalopolis developing along the shores of Lake Erie from Buffalo to Cleveland.
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