I would just like to point out (Brea, Arroyo Grande: universities, incomes)

[TrueTimbers]

Originally Posted by user_id

And its worked poorly for many, many people as well....which is just the point, when you make speculative investments there is always a reasonable chance things don't work out....no matter how much "research, history and trends" are in your favor.

This is just a clear case of survivor bias, you don't hear much from the people that made poor investment decisions.

Furthermore, having made some successful decisions doesn't mean you knew what you were doing, your success could have been entirely due to randomness. Therefore, in the investment world you have a lot of random fools..... But real estate in the west is an interesting case, a monkey throwing darts could have made a profit by buying real estate a few decades ago on the west. But nobody attributes their success to randomness....indeed this one theoretical issue is one of the fundamental differences between liberal and conservative thought.

Your risk aversion shows through here again User...

Regardless, below the surface of I see a good point....

When did owning a home become a speculative investment? Sometime in the 90's or early 00's?? (This question is for everybody... I believe this was the turning point from a good thing to not always a good thing..)

I believe this is at the crux of the problem with housing affordability and the some what justified "sour" opinion of home ownership for the younger generations compared to the older generations...... Sure home ownership always had a little risk, but not much.. These days it is not the case, it is almost no better than the stock market, or casino where the "house/insider" always wins...

This is not good!The blood sucking Wall street SOB's figured they can make a buck on speculating on the housing boom, by making risky loans... This crashed the system, they got bailed out as usual, we pick up the tab for the party... Yep, and worse yet we the people, got the idea we can make a buck from buying a home, which backfired on us....

Yes, I believe this sour attitude on home ownership may actually be healthy, to purge the rot out of the system, by crashing it..

Really as citizens of the capitalistic machine the only power we have is with our pocket book... Dropping out is an effective form of revolt..

So when are you young folks going to start the revolution? Or are you all to risk adverse to stand up for what you believe... Like generations before you have...

[nullgeo]

Originally Posted by user_id

Your comments, rather obviously, have nothing to do with mathematics...and my point is a mathematical and theoretical one. What you're saying simply doesn't address it.....though you are free to believe whatever you wish.

Oh, but it IS mathematics, user my boy ... it is the function of multiple positives and ZERO negatives all added up to ... it is a precise set of analytics that factored to an overwhelmingly positive sum.

Now, if you want to define your theoretics along different subject lines, go right ahead and we'll address those as well.

Originally Posted by user_id

Younger.....but what is your point? I'm wealthier today than I would have if I purchased property.....

Like I said, you guys are stuck on repeat.

Well, see ... in the past you have mentioned growing up in the seventies and graduating college in the 90's ... so, back to mathematics ... or is this a question of truthfulness?

And my point has nothing to do with wealth -- or whether you should have bought real estate. My point is that: you have NOT been involved in making real estate decisions ... multiple times ... and I have ... including 6 transactions between 2000 and 2007. Yeah, not "decades ago".

[.highnlite]

i'm glad somebody is following his nonsense. he doesn't need it but he sneers at it?

My horse is only 15.4 Mustangs are not all that tall, which is good, less distance to go before hitting the ground if something goes wrong.

Well, being a good Buddhist, I don't sneer at anything, except for poor thinking and Conservatives, if your posts fit neither of those categories then I did not sneer at them, and yes, I know that sneering at those two items is a bad thing, sad thing is, being a Buddhist I have to live with them, if I was a Christian I could be forgiven and go on about my business.

But, look on the bright side, 5thgen and User seem to have hit it off, no one can have too many friends, virtual or otherwise, is a "hookup" online?

[user_id]

Originally Posted by TrueTimbers

Your risk aversion shows through here again User...

Is this suppose to be a bad thing? The people that expose themselves to large risks are people that think they can't be wrong........it doesn't end well when they are in fact wrong. Should sorta be the lesson of the last 5 years.....I heard all the "zero chance" gibberish null has been saying 6+ years ago.

Since I know I can be wrong, I don't expose myself to risks that I can't control. Simple as that....and I've been growing a business like this for 7 years now. Slow and steady..... I've past many rabbits already......

Originally Posted by TrueTimbers

When did owning a home become a speculative investment? Sometime in the 90's or early 00's?? (This question is for everybody...

Owning a home has always been a speculative investment, it comes with both liabilities and potential gain. That isn't something that started in the 1990's, what changed is that real estate started to appreciate faster than inflation, due to demand from the boomers, and this brought attention to it as an asset class.

Younger folks have a sour opinion on real estate because its behaved terribly over the last decade, the depression generation had the same opinion (and by that I mean those that were 20~30 during the depression). My great grand-parents never purchased another home after the depression despite regaining a good income in the 1940's. Cycles......

The boomers believe that real estate is going to behave how it has always behaved for them, namely appreciate faster than inflation. Historically that has no presence though.....long-term real estate has only tracked inflation. But if real estate appreciated faster than inflation the last few decades, what must happen in the next few? Appreciation below the rate of inflation.... But when real estate appreciates below the rate of the inflation all the debt starts to kick you in the butt.... No more "moving up", etc... The generation before the boomers didn't keep their houses longer because they were wiser, they kept them longer because they couldn't rely on rapid appreciation to afford the next-level, it had to be earned....

[user_id]

Originally Posted by nullgeo

Oh, but it IS mathematics, user my boy ... it is the function of multiple positives and ZERO negatives all added up to ...

Sure thing, zero negatives.....at least that you could see.

Originally Posted by nullgeo

My point is that: you have NOT been involved in making real estate decisions ... multiple times ... and I have

You may want to rethink your point then, deciding not to purchase real estate is is real estate decision.

[TVC15]

Originally Posted by .highnlite

Well, being a good Buddhist

Right You're not even close!

[TrueTimbers]

Originally Posted by TVC15

Right You're not even close!

It is a path my dear.. Simply a path not a test..

Speaking of paths. What has changed so drastically with yours? I recall common ground with you on several occasions months back.. I am sorry, you have been consumed be the need for negativity..

[nullgeo]

Originally Posted by user_id

Sure thing, zero negatives.....at least that you could see.

Yes. And I wasn't right by accident. Although I suppose a meteor could crash it to smithereens ... I don't guess I'm insured for that.

Originally Posted by user_id

You may want to rethink your point then, deciding not to purchase real estate is is real estate decision.

Yes. This is true. What it is not is experience in the field.

Realize, I do not suggest that real estate is a prime investment, as far as investing goes. It is simply one of many investment types. Not a consistently aggressive strategy for making money. Much of your observation about how real estate relates to inflation is approximately true, at this point in time. Where real estate becomes an aggressive and highly profitable investment is pretty much in the field of development -- and in selecting sites for very strategic reasons, such as: neighborhoods in transition, as I did with my first property and my father did with his Washington D.C. property. This goes for both commercial and residential.

Buying a home for oneself, according to personal preferences alone, does not guarantee much leverage at all usually. Buying a home with an eye toward rental income is an entirely different story. And if one likes the siting for personal use and later rental, the picture gets better and better.

Knowing trends in urban sociology is huge, as well.

When buying real estate for rentals, one is really just working to have others pay for the properties over a long hold. Positive cash-flow is a bonus when it can be achieved, but break-even ain't bad a bit either. Factoring the cost to get in needs to include what other investing could be done with the same money ... etc. For me, I am comfortable with real estate. I understand it. That's my little piece of market savvy. I do not like stocks and bonds. I do not like business ventures and start ups. A person who is sharp in those other fields can often do better than with real estate.

[.highnlite]

Right You're not even close!

Darn, found out by an expert.

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by .highnlite

Darn, found out by an expert.

Isn't it Bud Heist as in lifting a beer regularly?