What are your thoughts behind the future California's sea terminals? (Sacramento: 2013, how much)

[shiphead]

West Sac getting out of the port business - Business - The Sacramento Bee

I read this article and the comments thinking, other then servicing itself and bordering states, what will be the future of California terminals once the Panama canal is done?

[JohnYossarian]

Goods will still flow from across the US to California and out to the Pacific Rim. I'm unsure at what point it makes sense to go through the Canal rather than ship overland from back east though.Shipping is a growth industry. There's enough business to go around to keep the ports operating. Like anything there might be more consolidation and cost-cutting however.

[Mike from back east]

For sure there'll be a reduction in container volume in the big western and SOCAL ports. Cargo for eastern U.S. states will transit the widened canal, meaning fewer stack trains coming out of the L.A. Basin, which will still serve most of the west. How much of a reduction remains to be seen.

Hard to say right now where the economics of over-land movement will establish a demarcation point for how far east containers will roll off Pacific ports or how far west containers will roll off of the two primary Atlantic coast ports that are able to handle the wider, deeper container vessels, i.e., Charleston, SC and Baltimore, MD.

It may be an somewhat arbitrary point, such as where the UP and BNSF RRs meet the eastern RRs of CSX and NS, i.e, somewhere along the Mississippi River, give or take. Historically, RRs hate to share income with other RRs, so it makes some sense that a defacto economic demarc may be where the eastern lines typically interchange with the western roads, allowing the RRs to keep 100% of their RR line-haul revenue.

I've not seen any news items that take a stab at predicting such a demarc point, and it's bound to be fuzzy given the realities of ocean cargo rates, port handling costs, geography and total-time-in-transit factors. RRs and shipping lines are loath to divulge specifics of their plans and pricing.

The economics generally tend to work the same in both directions for both import and export movements. A balanced flow in both directions is a holy grail for transport firms, they never want a one-way flow as that has them moving empty vehicles half the time while earning no revenue for deadhead movements.

The future is safe for CA ocean ports, but the frantic pace of cargo operations and train movements will slow a bit as some work will be spread across more ports.

The port of West Sac is not now a player in the massive container traffic entering CA ports, so nothing to lose there. The big container ports in SOCAL will feel a decline from a new canal.The West Sac facility may become a niche player, perhaps "heavy lift" items, but too soon to know for sure. One thing is for sure, with a max water depth of just 30 feet, not much shipping to going to be calling on the port of West Sac.

[Bulldogdad]

Port of Stockton is really kicking West Sac's butt because of the lack of a water canal deep enough to allow the huge international container ships that have access to Stockton. Couple that with I-5 and Hwy99 being only 4 miles apart through the hwy4 interchange right through downtown Stockton and the old Navy Base Port Stockton aquired. Least I forget the direct Port connection to Burlington Northern and Union Railroads.

Just an example of the businesses finding Stockton California's Largest inland seaport attractive:

Gavilon Announces Edible Oil Refinery in Stockton, California | Gavilon

[T Roosevelt]

Originally Posted by Bulldogdad

Port of Stockton is really kicking West Sac's butt because of the lack of a water canal deep enough to allow the huge international container ships that have access to Stockton. Couple that with I-5 and Hwy99 being only 4 miles apart through the hwy4 interchange right through downtown Stockton and the old Navy Base Port Stockton aquired. Least I forget the direct Port connection to Burlington Northern and Union Railroads.

Just an example of the businesses finding Stockton California's Largest inland seaport attractive:

Gavilon Announces Edible Oil Refinery in Stockton, California | Gavilon

The only ship I ever see at Stockton is that concrete Sunshine ship that never moves.

[BayAreaHillbilly]

For a voyage to Asia, the canal factor is less and less important the further north you are. In that regard, Seattle has the ultimate advantage given a great circle voyage.

[Bulldogdad]

Originally Posted by T Roosevelt

The only ship I ever see at Stockton is that concrete Sunshine ship that never moves.

You can pull up the vessel log for the port on the home page. Probably much better at telling you what ships are in port than what you see driving by at 65mph on the I-5 freeway

[DMenscha]

I think Stockton will be more than happy to take up the slack. It's mostly rice, grain and cement that make up the lion's share of the bulk cargo anyway.