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Old 08-05-2013, 10:04 PM
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,460 posts, read 20,019,887 times
Reputation: 4365

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Quote:
Originally Posted by CA4Now View Post
Everyone I know in their 60s is still working. And I don't know anyone who "started to fall apart" between the ages of 55 and 60. You must know a very limited number of people in this age group.
I'd suggest the shoe is on the other foot, my commentary is consistent with health statistics. When Americans get into their 50's the probability of getting a chronic, usually self-inflicted, disease starts to rapidly increase. By the time the average American gets into their 60's they have a number of health conditions, though the conditions don't always prevent them from working.

And my point wasn't that everyone stops working at 60, but that they start looking for the exit around that time and their declining health is often part of the reason. Not everyone can, even if their health is declining, stop working.
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Old 08-05-2013, 10:08 PM
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,460 posts, read 20,019,887 times
Reputation: 4365
Quote:
Originally Posted by nullgeo View Post
But the fact that our current, modern social, economic, cultural, technological evolution is unsustainable is the root of the issue here. Any expectation that the newer "generations" should be able to continue the madness of the previous "generations" is not founded in rational analysis.
Boomer entitlements depend on younger generations continuing the craziness, if younger generations actually dramatically changed the social and economic fabric of the US there would be no way to pay for boomer entitlements and, I should add, real estate would rapidly decline. So the only way society can change is if, ahem, boomers accept less.....

Its funny that you invest in real estate, yet deride the very activity that supports current evaluations.
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Old 08-05-2013, 10:41 PM
 
7,150 posts, read 10,856,001 times
Reputation: 3806
Quote:
Originally Posted by user_id View Post
Boomer entitlements depend on younger generations continuing the craziness, if younger generations actually dramatically changed the social and economic fabric of the US there would be no way to pay for boomer entitlements and, I should add, real estate would rapidly decline. So the only way society can change is if, ahem, boomers accept less.....

Its funny that you invest in real estate, yet deride the very activity that supports current evaluations.
They really don't at all, user. There are many paths to resetting the course that would accommodate past commitments and social responsibilities to the newer generations as well.

Any intelligent planning will be, by necessity to the future successes, gradual and deliberate -- with the goal being responsible social management. This free-for-all we have been living is not sustainable in the populated, wasteful world we have created. But it will take several generations to turn around through social engineering.

As for the value of real estate, and its decline -- nothing unique there ... all personal investment will have to change valuation ... the very nature of "value" will cease to be recognized as it is today.

My personal investments in real estate are only meaningful to me as a gift to my children ... my concern for them is if the stupidity we all live in drags on and on. I don't personally need real estate ... I live the proof of that. Take my property and, other than my concern for the kids, I'd just shrug and say: "no more lawns to care for" and drive on down the road.
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Old 08-05-2013, 11:49 PM
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,460 posts, read 20,019,887 times
Reputation: 4365
Quote:
Originally Posted by nullgeo View Post
They really don't at all, user. There are many paths to resetting the course that would accommodate past commitments and social responsibilities to the newer generations as well.
Current entitlements depend on not only current, but higher levels of production to be realized as such any "resetting" that involves less consumption and more leisure will make it impossible to pay for the boomer entitlements. Its just basic arithmetic, you don't get your cake and eat it too.


Quote:
Originally Posted by nullgeo View Post
My personal investments in real estate are only meaningful to me as a gift to my children ... my concern for them is if the stupidity we all live in drags on and on.
Your personal investments are your attempt to profit and seek rents......the truly wealthy could pretend like they are"gifts to their children" as well.
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Old 08-06-2013, 12:50 AM
 
28,107 posts, read 63,486,210 times
Reputation: 23225
Quote:
Originally Posted by user_id View Post
Your personal investments are your attempt to profit and seek rents......the truly wealthy could pretend like they are"gifts to their children" as well.
Or they could just be a hedge against inflation or putting money in a commodity. Money in the bank pays nothing and things like food continue to rise.

Not much profit in the short term for most buying houses in California to rent.

I've always looked for the long term and paying down the debt and increasing equity.

In the last down turn... investors with rentals dumped property all over. The checker at Safeway had bought 4 rental homes and walked away from all of them when he quickly learned he could not keep them afloat...
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Old 08-06-2013, 07:45 AM
 
Location: So Ca
26,640 posts, read 26,571,694 times
Reputation: 24682
Quote:
Originally Posted by user_id View Post
my commentary is consistent with health statistics. When Americans get into their 50's the probability of getting a chronic, usually self-inflicted, disease starts to rapidly increase.
Oh, for heaven's sake. I'm talking about real people; people you actually know. Do you know anyone in this age group?

Quote:
And my point wasn't that everyone stops working at 60, but that they start looking for the exit.
And your "point" led to your assumption that everyone in this age group will then leech off your generation. Right. Do you realize that you will be in your 50s and 60s someday? Would love to hear your commentary then...
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Old 08-06-2013, 11:59 AM
 
Location: California
1,424 posts, read 1,631,266 times
Reputation: 3144
Education, education, education. But not education for education's sake. There are jobs, good blue collar jobs that are going completely unfilled, because people don't have the skills.

Our education system is completley missed up. People are told that "there is college and a degree for everyone" i.e. you have barely scrapped by a C+ average, but we will find you some Podunk college with 90% acceptance rate. You will go $40k in debt and major in basket weaving from a colllege no one has heard of. People like that could very well be screwed. Or at least start their lives in a massive hole.

What we should do is model our education system like Germany. Tell people in 8th grade they are not college material. Send them to technical schools where they learn high skill manufacturing jobs. Look at Germany - it was the top exporter several years ago (and is still massive) with a fraction of the population of US and China, because they have a high skilled blue collar qworkforce that makes great wages.

But in the US, everything is beholden to the college prep curriculum. The Economist had an article about Bakersfield the other day saying that the local university just started orderingn any courses relevant to agriculture. WTF?????
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Old 08-06-2013, 02:53 PM
 
18,172 posts, read 16,299,856 times
Reputation: 9325
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyinCali View Post
Education, education, education. But not education for education's sake. There are jobs, good blue collar jobs that are going completely unfilled, because people don't have the skills.

Our education system is completley missed up. People are told that "there is college and a degree for everyone" i.e. you have barely scrapped by a C+ average, but we will find you some Podunk college with 90% acceptance rate. You will go $40k in debt and major in basket weaving from a colllege no one has heard of. People like that could very well be screwed. Or at least start their lives in a massive hole.

What we should do is model our education system like Germany. Tell people in 8th grade they are not college material. Send them to technical schools where they learn high skill manufacturing jobs. Look at Germany - it was the top exporter several years ago (and is still massive) with a fraction of the population of US and China, because they have a high skilled blue collar qworkforce that makes great wages.

But in the US, everything is beholden to the college prep curriculum. The Economist had an article about Bakersfield the other day saying that the local university just started orderingn any courses relevant to agriculture. WTF?????
But, but, but, it is socially irresponsible to tell someone they are not college material and must work at a "service job" even if it does pay $75.00 an hour. They will feel hurt and like second class citizens and after all all through school we told them they were smart (even if they did poorly), sent them to the next grade because holding them back hurt their fragile egos, and entitled and no one should be viewed as smarter than anyone else less we hurt their fragile ego's, and .. they won't know what to do.
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Old 08-06-2013, 03:12 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles (Native)
25,303 posts, read 21,349,958 times
Reputation: 12318
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyinCali View Post
Education, education, education. But not education for education's sake. There are jobs, good blue collar jobs that are going completely unfilled, because people don't have the skills.

Our education system is completley missed up. People are told that "there is college and a degree for everyone" i.e. you have barely scrapped by a C+ average, but we will find you some Podunk college with 90% acceptance rate. You will go $40k in debt and major in basket weaving from a colllege no one has heard of. People like that could very well be screwed. Or at least start their lives in a massive hole.

What we should do is model our education system like Germany. Tell people in 8th grade they are not college material. Send them to technical schools where they learn high skill manufacturing jobs. Look at Germany - it was the top exporter several years ago (and is still massive) with a fraction of the population of US and China, because they have a high skilled blue collar qworkforce that makes great wages.

But in the US, everything is beholden to the college prep curriculum. The Economist had an article about Bakersfield the other day saying that the local university just started orderingn any courses relevant to agriculture. WTF?????
This makes a lot of sense. In this sense the Germans seem a lot more practical regarding their education versus the U.S , the Germans have the best economy of the entire E.U and the way their education system is setup definitely plays a role in that.

I like the idea that the U.S offers many options for study, and I do view the liberal arts majors as being important even if they don't make tons of money.

Also if you study the S.T.E.M majors that also doesn't necessarily grant you a huge job either.

The loss of the middle class clearly had to do with the loss of good paying manufacturing jobs. You can track the decline of the San Fernando Valley with the loss of the manufacturing companies that used to operate there such as GM.

The prices that people are paying for college is pretty insane. There are many "Podunk" colleges that are riding the student loan gravy train. If people had to pay out of pocket for these schools, they wouldn't be around. Just like most of those houses wouldn't of been sold back in 2004-2007 if everyone needed to really prove their income and put a significant down payment.

With $40k you could start a business. You could use $40,000 to purchase an investment property worth $120,000 or more . Many students have over 100k in debt.
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Old 08-06-2013, 06:07 PM
 
9,891 posts, read 11,707,286 times
Reputation: 22085
The Millennials are really part of the problem for the future of California.

The Science and Technology workers in California, and mature, will be retiring in the not so distance future.

The students in K-12 education level in the S and M field, are some of the worst in the nation. They are not getting educated to fill the needs of the future. California is giving too little preparation and number of years in S and M field. In other words they are not preparing the students for the future needs in the state. California students are falling behind the rest of the country education wise.

Only 1/4th of K-12, are English Learners in California. Too much time is being spent to multiple language education due to this problem and this distracts from education in the S and T fields.

In 1970, California ranked seventh in the nation in the percent of the workforce that had completed high school; in 2008, it ranked last. California is going from an educated state, and now is at the bottom.

California will not be producing the number of college graduates required for the work force by the end of this decade, and will not be able to hire enough from other states.

They expect the income per capita in California will decline nearly $2,500 by the end of the decade largely due to this problem.

This is taken from Cal Poly report.

CESaME - Cal Poly > About CESaME - STEM Education Crisis

and http://cdn.americasedge.org/clips/CA...lsReport-5.pdf

http://www.csus.edu/ihelp/PDFs/R_STEM_06-09.pdf

In the last decade, California was one of the few states that lost STEM jobs. California lost 2% of their STEM jobs, while Texas gained 14%, Utah increased by 18%, North Dakota by 31%. And these numbers are increasing faster in this decade.

However, San Jose metro area employment in STEM fields actually decreased 12.6 percent from 2001 to 2012, Technology Jobs | Technology Recruiters | Kappa Search

States with Largest Presence of STEM-Related Jobs | Newgeography.com

Corporations that used to put their facilities in California, have been looking at the upcoming problems and are now putting their facilities where the future is looking brighter for a quality work force. Silicon Valley has the corporate offices, but the STEM jobs are going other places.

That is why California has a high unemployment rate, and Texas is the #1 state in all 4 income levels of new job production.

Companies are also looking at the cost to do business, which can be as much as 40% higher in California, and that 40% goes directly to the bottom line or lets say what it is, PROFIT.

In other words, companies are looking at where the quality of the work force, and the education the future workers are receiving, and the cost of doing business, and are setting up in other states not California for the better quality jobs.

California is just seeing the tip of the iceberg, on these problems.

This is why the Millennials are having much more problems in California than other states. This is why the smart young educated, are leaving the state for a better life, just as in former periods they flocked to California for a better life. In the past a lot of young people hated to leave their home area, but starting with the early arrivals in the U.S. they came to the U.S., and then went to where the opportunities were in the U.S., and now they are doing the same.

Some however, are sitting and crying, and feeling doomed. Those are the ones that will suffer from the changes taking place in the U.S. today.
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